Member Info for KGinvest

JG, i hear ya.. that's their new CEO i think and it makes an excellent statement about their confidence.. unfortunately i don't expect anything remotely similar from MCG directors.. they are just weak.. overall, we can keep talking about how good value this share price is but there is evidently a buyer's strike when it comes to this company.. i don't see it changing on its own without an external catalyst, got to have an activist coming on board and beating the drum

There was a small mention of this in the presentation on results day but looks like these two have been let go given the performance of the UK business and looks like a strong candidate joining in Sept..

"I'm off to pastures new although I'm not quite sure which pastures yet so any leads, contacts or connections will be very gratefully received." lol... is there an easier way to see i am being laid off!

good decision imo

https://www.business-live.co.uk/enterprise/two-national-express-senior-executives-27415066

UT is closing price

And then there's lower UT price to rile you up further JG! on director buys, i thought they are under blackout period for 1 week after half and full year results.. might be wrong though

Nah QD.. NEX financials are dire, just forget it.. you stick with your ASOS where financials are much better, right? dimwit

Some of the chaps here are a complete joke.. no assets, really? page 187 of the annual report, read it to get some facts in order.. property, plant and equipment as of 31/12/2022 was £1.17b.. i am surprised people throw out this level of BS

if you were to fault find on the balance sheet side, the goodwill is perhaps too high. As of last year, it was £1.3b - i can see this going down again this year.. a goodwill is what the company think it is worth in addition to what it's assets-liabilities are, you can agree or disagree with that but it has nil impact on cash flow statement which should dictate what's a share price worth so i dont pay much attention to it.. they are on track to hit 15-18p EPS this year which is supposedly the toughest year they have ever seen barring covid so still a very much profit making company and destined for margin expansion into the next year.. i can't see why they shouldn't generate 25p+ on EPS in 2024 even with increase in interest costs..

however, markets are absolutely not forward looking on companies where they can't trust the management so in my mind this is purely a trust issue, nothing else.. if you were to replace the current ceo with someone of good credentials or even the previous ceo, this will instantly go up by at least 20% on the day.. listening to him on the presentation day made me cringe..

https://www.mobicogroup.com/media/skgbe4ro/national-express-annual-report-and-accounts-2022.pdf

Guys, chill out a bit.. unless you are in a leveraged trade and have margin calls to worry about, there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the company.. just think for a second that Cosmen owns about 13% of the company and he's the deputy chairman - anything wrong with the company, he would know much before than we do - he has not sold a single share in the last year.. he is sitting on a paper loss of probably over $70m in last one year and he's actively bidding with the company for more partnerships (RE the FT article).. our paper losses pales in comparison.. i am neck deep into this but not going to sell a single share at these levels.. added every last bit of what I could the last time it dropped to low 90s..

gla dyor

Genghis - i think there are some provisions to carry forward losses but not sure how it works sorry.. need someone from accounting background to answer that for us

My understanding of the profit forecasts from yesterday: atleast 200m in EBIT and if you take away 75m in interest and another 30m in tax, leaves you with 90m net profit.. this should be the bare minimum they achieve.. any writedowns are balance sheet related and doesn't impact the ability to pay debt or dividend..

A £90m net profit translates to 15p per share, gives you a PE of 6 at current levels.. out of that 15p I think, they will pay 7.5p total dividend for the year (including 1.7p interim) and remaining can be used to pay off debt..

@ronnie - not sure about your post on dividend. imo 5p was the final dividend and they said 1/3 of final dividend would be interim which they are paying as 1.7p.. at the end of FY, they will again pay a dividend, expected to be at least 5p if not more.. so total for FY2024, shareholders are being paid close to 7p which is a yield of 8% at current share price

@JW: so many PIs would have bought this in the 90s and it is likely most of those were very short term investments aiming for a 10 odd percentage gain so this selling into the momentum should be expected but the reversal in momentum is intact and this should keep nudging up over the next week which is make or break for this stock.. even a small positive surprise should see it reclaiming the 120s

dyor gla

For full disclosure I have invested here in the past but no open positions currently but it is on my watchlist

Well explained @Cigam.. would only add one extra bit here that he has committed to buy the shares but doesn't have to if it stays up.. let's say the put options were sold at yesterday's close of 374; he has already collected the premium and would only need to buy the 1.1m shares at Sept end if the share price is below 374.. if the share price is above 374, he walks off and doesn't need to buy those shares..

he's pretty savvy and basically broadcasting that the share price wouldn't go down from these levels and if it does, he is willing to put more money into it.. in short, this sets a floor for the share price imo

@Darkblue: completely agree, it is borderline immoral that FCA is now getting dictated by city based short sellers and have completely ignored the safeguards for individual investors.. it is simply not worth it to invest in uk markets anymore, no wonder uk markets are undervalued by 40-50% compared to other developed countries - smart money is losing confidence..

Noggers, dividend was only £30m so you are not going to make much of a dent on the net debt figures so not sure why ppl keep referring that, not taking a shot at you but i have read this many times here.. however, it might have helped with the perception I think that they are serious about it - that again shows lack of touch with the current climate and a massive failure of the leadership team..

only two main ways of tackling debt, a quick way of selling some non-core assets or a long winded way of paying it through free cash flow (where dividend comes from) - they clearly things the latter is better but market is going to force their hand in my humble opinion

I think the key thing killing the share price is the IR team.. they don't reach out to the investors, don't hold capital markets day etc etc.. and when you email them pointing out areas where they are lacking, they respond in a defensive way.. not a big fan of the CEO/CFO combo as well.. the previous CEO was good but this bunch looks ineffective..

@Hindy, would this confirm double bottom if this close above 106?

True, that's probably the only sensible things quickdip has said in all his existence on this board.. imo it is and will remain a cosmetic change without improving any brand image..

final top up gone through today, all in on this now.. will seriously consider remortgaging the house if this drops below 100.. mental times these you never know but anyone who has got the conviction, will be well rewarded - it always was and still remain a 6-12 month play but who knows an activist investor might be filling up their boots quietly and may reveal anyday just like what happened with 888 but of course who knows...

dyor gla

QD, i am sure you are headed for asos again.. good riddance

@Poker: just excellent.. so hilarious to read that in chronological order, just tells you all you need to know.. some ppl have simply no idea what they are saying or doing