Member Info for KGinvest

Hey chaps - this board has been buzzing since yesterday, didn't get the chance to post. Agree with most of the discussions but don't think anyone has posted about this in a while yet. Has someone got a very clear picture about the major holders?

My usual places to go to are morningstar and marketscreener but none of them list holdings of the spanish investment firm with 3% stake or Lancaster investments (again 3% stake). It feels like short attacks are creating some free float from us PIs and then these big continue to load up. I have not seen any RNS on IIs decreasing their stake in last 6 months; obviously the ones under the scanner don't need to disclose but at least the major ones haven't.

My napkin maths suggest that between 70-80% float is under IIs or cosmens but would be useful to get an accurate up to date picture.

Well, if you have got a feeling this is going to drop to 30p, don't just sit.. act on it and short it.. otherwise you are just being a keyboard warrior spouting nonsense as half of the forum members do.. back it up with a fact or justification then ppl would want to listen to you which is the whole point of having this discussion forum.. don't go around claiming that on the basis on a 0.1% short position increase the share price would tank, pls apply some thought and rationale.. over 70% of this company is owned by IIs or Cosmens and they are sitting tight or increasing.. but hey, dont go by what someone else says, use your analysis and act but pls do act and don't just spread fear

Exactly kingrav.. ppl just jump up and down on slightest of data points.. you wanna see problematic short positions, go check petrofac or ocado for that matter.. Also, if you go and check, I am pretty sure GLG would have increased short positions in multiple stocks over the last few days given the geo-political climate; doesn't mean they have got some leaked info about mobico; they are just playing with human psychology

keep calm as next few weeks/months are going to be interesting on this one

Or just algos propping this up Mary, this went up like 8% on less than 20k shares.. insane

JG: i gave up making sense of this market a long time ago. I have traded in couple of other foreign markets and can tell you with certain degree of confidence that UK markets have drifted far far away from how a normal market should operate. manipulation yes but the worst thing is the lack of market participants, no liquidity left in these markets..

Elon Musk takeover! LOL

the thing with inflation data is that it's stale even before it comes out.. we know oil prices are going up, red sea tensions, general malaise in middle east along with the seemingly never ending Ukraine war, means inflation would continue to see spikes amid this volatility.. it only properly stays down when there's a recession and we are far away from it even though we may have had just gone through a technical recession.. I wouldn't read too much into the timing of cosmens as they would play a long game so their buying doesn't necessarily mean no RI but chances of it are low hopefully.. it will crush us PIs if that were to happen at this share price level..

my base scenario is that the results show £180m EBIT without too many write offs and we go back to 70s on share price.. in addition, any positive news regarding US bus sale, we breach 100.. if there are too many write offs / new onerous provisions, we sadly retest 50s again

Just because we don't see them, doesn't mean they are none, could be many hiding under 0.5%. I am not even sure if the short selling disclosure regulation is still applicable. If I remember it correctly, FCA was going to bump up this disclosure requirement - anyone knows when is it applicable from?

Hello peeps, long time.. i see couple of scumbags are now gone from this bb and a few new fellas have joined.. nice to see names of the old timers @Poker @JG @Hindy.. how you all been? it was good to take a break from this dump of a share market..

I have been catching up over the last few days; over the last 6 months nothing much seems to have changed in terms of share price and yet we got cosmens approaching a hostile takeover territory.. how is this not getting priced in the share price, such a broken market

See my responses next to it..

20,000 shares at 60p (£12000) investment at yesterday's close (using 60p) [KG: correct]

Shares diluted by 20, so 1000 shares post consolidation [KG: correct but you missed something very important, see below]

6 Rights per each new share, so 6000 rights based on 1000 shares to buy new shares, each of which requires £1.97 per share [KG: correct]

£1.97 * 6000 = £11,820 or a further investment of 98.5% of the value of your holding yesterday based on 60p. [KG: correct]

Not 6 times - 1 TIMES [KG: incorrect]

Shares diluted by 20, so 1000 shares post consolidation - true but you conveniently forgot that those 1000 shares are now worth 1000 * 1.97 = £1970 compared to your original value of investment that was £12000! GET IT???

Original investment = £12000

Current value of that investment after rights issue = £1970

More money needed to invest in the rights issue, as you mentioned correctly = £11,820

11820 / 1970 = 6 times.. SO it is actually 6x the level of investment the company is asking you to make to stay relevant and if someone don't have the money or don't want to invest more funds here, £1970 is what remains of their original £12000 investment.. now I am sure one could sell their rights and get some money back but the adjustment would nowhere be nearly enough to compensate the loss of capital..

I see the fallacy in your approach where you think you invested x and now you are going to shell out another x so it is 1:1.. you got to think from the perspective of people who don't have spare funds to invest in this issue

@Josey: you are obviously more sensible than this bully whose entire day job apparently is to post on this board.. for the sake of experiment, why don't you tell us how much you paid for the rights in a month's time and if at all how much were you able to sell your rights for..

remember folks, the one who speaks the loudest is not always correct.. dyor and stop feeding into the egos of these bullies

@hereshopin - you are a pretty **** o i am sure you already know that.. you and your stupid calculations.. what a joker you are, just because you have calculated something doesn't make it right you dumb nincompoop..

go read the investor presentation and see for yourself.. if you still don't understand, be ready for a shock at the time of payment.. or do you even have any skin in the game at all? are you just ramping up this share on behalf of this inept management?

Intense buying? the share price hasn't moved up so clearly there's a big seller in the background dumping shares.. can't imagine how some of the big fund manager are feeling having been caught in this meltdown..

there's likely to be more selling from PIs as well who probably haven't realised yet that they need to shell out 5x more cash at this dog of a share.. there are some rampers here too who would like us to believe this is the bottom - for me personally, I have no idea where this is headed in the short term.. anyone who says they know are just kidding with themselves..

for full disclosure, I had about 10k invested here, sold out at a loss of 4k and used my 6k to invest more in MCG.. If I hadn't sold out, I would be expected to stump out another 36k to get on the rights issue bus, cross my fingers and hope for the best.. To me, this is very shoddy of a company to expect from existing shareholders - I think a game of chicken is being played out by the largest shareholder and they would eventually end up owning much bigger part of the company but that's just conjecture.

Why am I being bothered writing here? just frustration of seeing this happen with a reputed company - ppl are comparing it with Aston Martin but don't realise this is worse than what AML did.. I don't think any FTSE 250 company with 2b+ revenues has ever done so - I could be wrong here though but it is shambolic nonetheless..

@ianfm, have some patience my friend.. don't interrupt the momentum! it is good to see this finding strength even on weak days for the general market

@Josey: all valid points especially around selling rights if you don't want to apply so even in theory you are losing 80% not applying for rights issue, in practice it would be bit less.. no one can tell with any confidence with what that would be but this is a horrendous rights call and should be opposed at the shareholder vote.. even though it is likely to go through given the backing of the largest holder..

**sorry, brain freeze in multiplying with p's.. here is the correct version**

This is from page 15 of the investor presentation:

Share consolidation: 1 for 20 i.e. if you have 1000 shares currently, you will be left with 50 shares

Rights issue: 6 for 1 i.e. given the above, with your 50 shares, now you are entitled to buy another 300 shares

So two scenarios here for all investors: using yesterday's price of 60p, if you have 1000 shares, your share value was £600.. after consolidation, your share value still remains the same i.e. £600 but the number of shares have reduced and the theoretical share price has gone up (60*20 = 1200p) .. hereshopin has laid out what happens when you fully invest into the rights issue but conveniently missed out the fact if you don't.

If you don't invest in rights issue, which was my original post that started this ruckus, your share value which was £600 yesterday, would now be = 50 shares * 240p (ex rights price at today's price) = £120

I am fully confident in this calculation; believe it or not, your take.. message is very clear, if you can't afford to invest in the rights issue, then sell, otherwise you are losing 80% of your equity in this share after rights issue..

not an advice, please do your own research

This is from page 15 of the investor presentation:

Share consolidation: 1 for 20 i.e. if you have 1000 shares currently, you will be left with 50 shares

Rights issue: 6 for 1 i.e. given the above, with your 50 shares, now you are entitled to buy another 300 shares

So two scenarios here for all investors: using yesterday's price of 60p, if you have 1000 shares, your share value was £6000.. after consolidation, your share value still remains the same i.e. £6000 but the number of shares have reduced and the theoretical share price has gone up (60*20 = 1200p) .. hereshopin has laid out what happens when you fully invest into the rights issue but conveniently missed out the fact if you don't.

If you don't invest in rights issue, which was my original post that started this ruckus, your share value which was £6000 yesterday, would now be = 50 shares * 240p (ex rights price at today's price) = £1200

I am fully confident in this calculation; believe it or not, your take.. message is very clear, if you can't afford to invest in the rights issue, then sell, otherwise you are losing 80% of your equity in this share after rights issue..

not an advice, please do your own research

@Moneymule: even if my calculations are not watertight, I can with full confidence say that you are absolutely wrong when you say "hence 30% more shares will now be in issue"

@hereshopin: I haven't gone through the details on your post but it sounds rational but please for the love of god, tell me how is my statement not correct?

"if you hold £1k worth of shares currently, the company is asking you to invest further £6k and if you don't your £1k worth of shares will be c£160 in few weeks time"

it seriously feel like 1 vs many but I stand by my assessment given what I have read in the presentation

@Moneymule: calculations are correct.. imho you shouldn't be investing if you can't understand that bit

@Joseywales: brave decision.. i will not touch this share again tbh given how badly they are burning the current shareholders

However way you wanna spin it, it is pretty bad.. this must be on top of the list of worst rights issue ever to have screwed investors.. for those who are still struggling to understand the full picture, if you hold £1k worth of shares currently, the company is asking you to invest further £6k and if you don't your £1k worth of shares will be c£160 in few weeks time.. utter shambles

i have sold out of my small holding here; a new lesson learned! GLA