Member Info for KGinvest

"It removes a lot of the uncertainty for sure."

not really, if anything, it has left people guessing and indulging into make belief scenarios, there is no clearly no compensation as confirmed by IR and they have been deliberately vague on financial impact, just like they always have been on everything else, biggest mistake of my investing career, this one.. I thought the previous CEO was the problem but it's just their culture it seems.. pi.ss poor update as always.

If uncertainty had been reduced by any great deal, the SP wouldn't have closed below the pre-RNS price, this will go down back to where it was couple of days ago.

Very likely there is no compensation, otherwise they would have said so.. more jiggery pokery really.. I guess people saw the rns and it jumped a lot, now a realisation setting in that this may not be a good deal for mobico after all. Loss making contracts to continue for 4 more years is really poor outcome.

No RNS means it's not RNS worthy; I think there's a % threshold requirement for a rns; they don't rns on every win too.

it could very well be that the contract wasn't generating any bottom line so ALSA didn't see the need to be competitive in their bid, we would never know. They don't publish operating profit margins at subsidiary level within ALSA so it's hard to tell.

Sorry late to the party, been away. Am I reading this correctly regarding the contract exits: 5 year total migration with £20m outflow each year, resulting in £100m outflow over the period? I know the first tranche of costs are being paid via shares so no immediate cash impact but this still looks an expensive deal. Does anyone know how much we were bleeding every year on these contracts?

Keep dreaming aimless, if this ever reaches your station, things would have to be much worse than they are now and then you would have changed your goalpost again, typical short term mentality

"DCC is a non profit organisation. Its accounting is separate, and are not included in Capita's accounts!"

Maybe I am bit thick but if it's a non-profit, why is Capita even involved here?

Https://www.capita.com/news/capitas-fire-service-college-opens-new-facility-london-ambulance-service-provide-resilience

Capita’s Fire Service College (FSC) has officially opened a new, purpose-built facility for the NHS Resilience Emergency Capabilities Unit (NHSR ECU) at its 300-acre site in Moreton-in-Marsh, following the signing of a ten-year contract with London Ambulance Service.

The contract, worth £14 million over 10 years, facilitates the unit’s requirement that all its staff undergo training to equip them for a complex or major incident.

@Wednesday: Oi KGInvest - I can take offence! ;)

that's just hilarious, it was surely not meant for you :)

Just when you think the quality of cr&p being posted here has reached a bottom, comes wednesday and bang, keyboard warriors going in full flow.. blimey

Wow.. Never seen a 20+% rise on a broker recommendation before; generally it is within +5% to -5% range, not that I am complaining! And it just kept going up after that morning uptick.

I reckon someone was left wrong footed perhaps shorts who then desperately piled in. All we need is a one positive RNS and we shall cross the previous highs.. I would not tempt fate yet on FCF confirmation and where that would take us by year-end.

@ Laralara1: I don't disagree that their tone was convincing and I trust White far more than I did Garat so all to play for but just the tone wouldn't increase the SP, they need to deliver and I feel they got both their hands tied behind given what they inherited. If they don't sort out Germany, they will end up paying more fines worth over £100m (I don't remember the exact number they quoted).

That they only need to pay off £250m on hybrid is a news to me; I know it is half equity and half debt but I thought when the times comes, they need to pay it off completely, happy to be corrected if someone knows the detail around it.

@Lorenzo, not sure why you think they will call it. They don't have enough funds to pay it off and taking it from RCF to pay hybrid off would be financially worse off. They received about £270m and hybrid is £500m, no way they can pay it off unless they sell off another asset which is possible but that would then complicate their covenant ratio.

They will take a hit of £42m a year by rolling the hybrid so of course, it makes sense to pay it off but I just can't see how they will. That's why we are where we are in terms of SP.

It may make more sense if they were holding long positions too and both long and short positions were unwound at the same time

All anyone needs to know before starting to panic looking at the short positions and making decisions based on that; cut the noise out from the junkies; you know they are!

Lol.. they have come back.. at the time of posting they were over 5% up.. maybe just nothing

Hoping some good news to follow

Investors especially PIs can rarely see beyond a short term so we try to make something uncertain into black and white in our heads just so that we can feel comfortable as it is beyond our level of computation. I bought quite a hefty chunk of palantir when it was under $10 and sold it when it hit $20, thinking what a great move that was, it is today over $180! I know, apples and oranges but fruits of this AI revolution and going to be plenty for companies who are at the right place at the right time which CPI is just starting to position in, long way to go. I can assure you that 90% of the investors in CPI would have sold out long before we are even close to 500p.

So the short answer to your question Kipper, is that we just don't know. One thing, however we can say with almost certainty is that the SP will go below 200p if we don't get to hear the magic words (FCF+) from AH come Dec.

Some fund buying transactions showing up after close.. It should go a lot further if it continues

@Kipper9: you do understand that someone can be bullish on a stock and still can sell half of their holdings. If I had more funds few months ago, I would have bought lot more and would have sold them now. Everyone has a risk tolerance threshold and profit taking threshold. Just because someone don't have the same parameters as yours, they don't deserve cr*p thrown at them.

Nothing much has changed on the board other than the share price rise; still people talking keyboard trash who I am sure still haven't realised the faults of his ways which he'll never do btw, would still be spouting out trash when we are at 600p. Thankfully he went to the filter bin long ago.

@HHH: what's this fixation about @GoCPI? I have seen many others engaging with trash on regular basis in the past