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LG: this article may answer your question about takeover rules.. TLDR of it is that rules are not very clear on when a target company should disclose a takeover offer so they may have discussed multiple offers in the last few months and chose not to disclose (unlikely but possible). Most of the times, the bidder would also hold target company under NDA so that there isn't a bidding war before they can table a binding offer. Could be any of these things with NEX or nothing at all!

https://www.secnewgate.co.uk/our-insights/when-should-companies-tell-their-shareholders-about-takeover-approaches

LG, good spot, something's surely brewing but I don't think there's any way for us to decode what goes on with these after trades..

Trading updates don't need to be pre-announced so not much to read there - there was one due anyway. Last year it happened last week of April so this was expected, we just didn't know which day it was coming through.

@Pokerchips, thanks. Yes, that's a good observation actually on the slowing economy and more driver supply coming through.. in fact, i think a deep recession would be beneficial for NEX overall.. fuel prices will crash, ppl would be worried about jobs, forget about wage increases but the demand is virtually untouched in a recessionary environment

Seriously? I couldnt find the details around it but if they have actually raised the price target, this would be the 3rd time they have opined on NEX in last 6 or so weeks which is highly unusual for any analyst firm

@Pokerchips, i dont remember where i read it but it was not via company RNS.. it was in an article in relation to NEX struggling to recruit bus drivers in US and having to offer salaries in excess of 15% vs average..

on how do I know contract negotiations wouldn't cover wage increases? you said it yourselves mate, so far wage inflation has only been recovered on 40% contracts, it is more than likely that they wouldn't be able to on all of them as not all contracts have inflation component attached to it and/or open for renegotiation

yes JG68, the blackout period should have ended today or at most will be by next week so if there isn't any single director buy in couple of weeks time, it would be a good indicator that an offer is brewing up behind the scenes

@Genghis: let me get some facts sorted out here

- we have £12 million in additional costs in interest charges.. For that NEX declared £261m non-cash impairment of goodwill in ALSA in the final year results..... [KG] this is a cash charge, in addition to the non-cash impairment of goodwill

- whats new is a target of £25 million in cost and productivity savings [KG] this is correct, it is a net positive

- contract negotiations are allowing a 13% increase in rates - that is well above the inflation rate [KG] they had to increase wages of US drivers by over 15% and they are already paying those higher wages so this 13% increase is not even going to cover the wage increase

- WM Travel strike settlement cost more than expected but it seems that West Midlands Travel authority might help out :-) [KG] again wishy washy.. not saying this can't happen but just a speculation at this stage

@Quickdip, totally agree.. 115-120 should be the floor now, can't see this going below that level unless someone starts new war somewhere.. patient investors will atleast double their investment in 1-2 years.. speculative investors are going to drop this on a small rise and leave which is net positive for us

I honestly did hope they would come out guns blazing seeing the share price is in doldrums but disappointed overall.. we will keep stuck in this trading range until we see some director buys or a potential news on buyout (which is an outside chance)

@Quickdip: I am not saying this loss of operating profit is not already in the share price but this is the first time I have seen them putting a number on it and a 10% operating income drop is not going to help them pay the debt sooner.. this was all a bit wishy washy to me.. e.g. "we will get a price increase of c13% on renegotiated contracts in US for Sept season", this is not a given by any means.. they haven't managed to increase their hedging of fuel for next year even with a big drop in fuel prices last month.. so as i said nothing positive but some might say nothing too negative too which would be a fair observation

I am not sure if this is possible at all but I am going to explore how to involve an activist investor.. there are a few here who are neck deep in this but even the aggregate may not exceed 0.1% of total # of shares so we are small fish and need a big fish to create some ripples

Chaps, I am going to take the other side of what seems like a consensus.. imo this was not a good trading update. why? Q1 revenue comparisons are misleading because Q1 2022 was still getting impacted by covid lockdowns.. a good comparison would be Q2 vs Q2 when all lockdowns were lifted, not that I am expecting a decline or anything but a 20-30% revenue increase wouldn't be there in those numbers so let's be mindful of that. One glaring negative in this TU is mention of £12m incremental interest cost i.e. now they will paying more to service debt compared to previous year, this is a direct c6% drop in net income (assuming forecast of £200m for FY2023-24).

I also do not like they keep talking about 2025 or 2027 ebitda targets when investors are getting nervy about recession headwinds and can't see beyond 2023. Personally if I was negative on the stock, this does nothing to reassure me that all is going to be rosy.. sorry folks, I know you are trying to hold on to some glimmers of hope but this wasn't one in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if we close flat today.. Also, as you may know from my short history of posting that I am ultra bullish on NEX so this lukewarm update doesn't change my opinion of the company but I am not liking this mgmt style of being afraid to commit to short term targets and setting out vague targets.. they seriously need to hold a capital markets day to get investors/analysts on board with their debt management strategy - debt levels are the only thing holding this down even though it is not a rational reason to worry but it is what it is, sorry couldn't be more positive today.

It need some kind of trigger though and w/o one we are not going anywhere.. need a strong trading update from the mgmt on the 25th, assuming that's when they are releasing it.. and by strong I don't mean just words, they need to talk (directly or indirectly) about shareholder value and options they are looking at / expression of interest from third parties etc..

just look at this 1 yr performance rankings for ftse 250 companies and NEX is 7th worst, hanging along with the likes of companies which are making huge losses or have a compromised business model or at much greater risk due to recession, none of which applies to this company.. this is all anyone need to know to confirm that NEX share price is being manipulated.. i don't claim to know how given all the transparency rules regarding disclosures etc but some sophisticated investors are having a field day (or months in this case) playing this stock.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-250/performance?column=date_1y&order=asc

DYOR
KG

I think this is purely market manipulation. I must say I have never seen anything like this before though. I would be very surprised if NEX board is not looking into this and figuring out a plan to get out of this rut.. remember, along with other things, it is the board's responsibility that shareholder returns are looked after and prioritised

@Saitama: we have had our share of some dimwit boarders but your comparison of NEX with Cine beats any other shiite i have ever read on this forum

Can anyone on this board understand what JP Morgan is doing with these equity swaps? It doesn't even seem to follow order of swaps they have mentioned

Paddyboy: thought I was loaded crazy high on this but you beat me hands on.. dividend is sweet while we wait for this to start its ride up but i would hate to pay the resulting dividend tax next year

@Quickdip: there's nothing to apologise so all good.. and very true about taking a long term view, it is what matters especially for a stock like this

i think we are getting too hung up on this point so last one from me on this.. just think from a trader's point of view.. if this weren't true, traders would have been lining up buy today and sell first thing tomorrow and gain the arbitrage.. that is the only thing they would need to do all year, go to a stock which is going ex-div, buy, sell next day, rinse repeat..

I would actually be worried if a 4.5-5p drop doesnt happen, it would be an indicator that there's some manipulation going on

@Quick: it looks like it did, 665 on Apr 5, 647p at open on Apr 6?