Member Info for Kev7722

"Jam... Sometime" feels entirely appropriate to me.

Given the significant uncertainty regarding the FCA and their redress scheme it is completely understandable that emotions are running a tad high today.

It also means that my opinion (and anyone else's really) is just that... an opinion. But FWIW my take on the CBG release, similar to that of Lloyds, is that they are intentionally light on detail today, because they have no intention of implementing the redress scheme in its current form (hence the carefully worded statements around what their respective provisions would look like).

So for me it's inconvenient, and kicks the can a bit further down the road before all this is ironed out, but I still view this as a buying opportunity for anyone in a position to top up. Fundamentally not much has changed in terms of the long term outlook for me, and the SP remains massively undervalued relative to CBGs fundamentals

FWIW at this price I will be adding a bit to my position ahead of the results being announced... even with only.some of the uncertainty removed it's a bargain in my eyes now - my target remains c. 800 in the medium-term

Nothwithstanding everything said below in response, attacking someone for making an incorrect prediction when the landscape changed significantly between them making that prediction and the market opening (thanks to the unhelpful FCA interference) is just bizarre... it's a bit like me predicting the result of a tennis match, only for the favourite to sprain their ankle walking on to the court - it doesn't make my prediction any less valid based on the information that was available at the time!

Dividend reinstatement or not I can't imagine their plan is just to sit on a pile of surplus cash.

I still think the optics of a buyback are better, but I suppose the broker downgrade was fair in as much as they are less diversified now (pros and cons to that IMO)... The very favourable judgement does of course put them in quite a fortuitous position in terms of having options though, so as someone who plans to be here for the long haul I'm actually pleased that the BOD didn't just rush into handing all.that cash back to shareholders, especially not as a special dividend, which I would have viewed as very short sighted

I'm not sure I agree with the view that it may take years to reinstate the dividend, and that it will probably never return to the 60p+ range though... when they paused dividends the BOD were very clear in saying this would be kept under close review, and they explicitly acknowledged the importance of dividend payments to their shareholders

M007j - I take the point but I'd hesitate to draw a direct parallel between the dividends yields of LLOY and CBG for valuation purposes... as much as I'd love the SP to be £16 :)

Since you appear to be here to stay Chid I want to give you the benefit of the doubt. Who knows, if I know that you are genuine then I may take your views into consideration, even if I don't really understand why you are on this board specifically...

To that end, I would really appreciate you providing a bit of clarity on a couple of lingering questions that I have:

- Your Lloyds holding... I assume from what you have said that it is significant, at least to you? Is it safe to also assume that it is an investment that you've held, and had largely remained untouched, since at least 2007?

- Is it fair to say that your political views (probably most notably in relation to Brexit) don't necessarily align with the market reaction, and the performance of Lloyds in particular post brexit (conscious of course that Lloyds is fairly unique in terms of the combination of its size and exposure to the UK market)? Has that been a source of frustration or disappointment for you?

From a purely investment perspective, in relation to the car finance 'scandal' is it therefore fair to say that your expectation in terms of the outcome has been driven by your pessimism from carrying huge losses in Lloyds and your frustration at the macroeconomic environment the UK finds itself in? Entirely understandable of course, but I'm still interested to know how you must feel having watched this board for so long, and now knowing that as a minimum you could have tripled whatever investment you still had in Lloyds by moving your holding here when you first joined...?

" i think the general assessment of Chid in the last few posts is a tad harsh"

I thought it was spot on personally... each to their own I suppose

It's interesting because the RWN removal It's obviously positive news, and reflect the decreased short-term risk. The downgrading credit rating is driven by factors that I would say demonstrate a very prudent and measured approach to the ambulance chasing... so whilst I appreciate the reasons for the downgrade they are the same reasons that gives me a lot of confidence in CBGs management team going forwards...

I'm still holding - there's a lot more upside potential here as news comes out re. CBGs actual exposure to any redress scheme and their plans re. dividends and surplus cash

Ref American Eagle all I'd say is that the market valuations of US-listed companies are often nonsensical in my opinion

But you aren't long or short on CBG, you have no vested interest whatsoever... your posts re. your investment in Lloyds and your rationale also makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, and it's honestly a little bit sad to see you trying to make out that you were right all along and patting yourself on the back when you're on a board where everyone can easily see months of posts where you've repeatedly got this completely wrong, and as such you're now surrounded by people who are quite frankly going to be making quite a lot of money tomorrow...

Seriously, I just wondered why you persist in doing it to yourself? Obviously people who don't feel that you add any value will continue to mute you as they get tired of this charade, so from my perspective I have no issue with you keeping it up.

For me personally I'll be top slicing at some point next week, and will then raise a dram of Macallan to you

Chid, I mean this with all due respect but now we know the outcome I have absolutely no idea whatsoever why you are still here...

I mean the NAV is 3 times the current market cap, and the share price was above £4.60 literally days ago but ok...

If they're thinking about the optics of a dividend then they may well be looking at alternatives like acquisitions or share buybacks... they wouldn't attract the same negative press.

That said, I have to wonder how affected they are by negative press - CBG aren't really very public facing... Even less so now than before this all blew up

Personally I'm sticking with the prediction I made yesterday before the ruling was made - c. £5.10 on a 'good' outcome but not a complete overturn.

Appreciate it may well be driven higher than this on sentiment and then pulled back to reality, but there is still more news to come / uncertainty to be taken off the table in terms of possible FCA redress, dividend reinstatement etc.

It may also be of course that CBG themselves have more to say early next week that will influence the SP. I'm happy regardless though - as others have already said, Monday is probably not the day to sell.

In your defence Chid you've consistently stated you are long on LLOY, and so you are probably going to see a 5% or so rise on Monday, which is nothing to be sniffed at.

The back patting is odd though, given that you have been a consistently negative presence over the past year. You also stated repeatedly how underwater you are on LLOY, which implies you've held for a very long time. The truth is that relative to the size of the company this isn't the big deal to Lloyds that it is to CBG - Lloyds is already close to post-Brexit highs and it's not going that much higher on this news.

I'd imagine most of the others on this board are as legitimately over the moon as I am however - I started building a position late last year, and aside from a bit of trading have consistently added since, so my average is a shade over £2.50 now.

The difficulty for me next week is going to be holding my nerves rather than top slicing of exiting completely... whilst not life changing I'm going to wake up Monday morning with an awful lot of money in my ISA 🍻

That's it... I think that's it!!!! Happy weekend everyone (apart from Chid)

£5.10 based on a favourable but not unrealistic ruling... although I've convinced my friend to add more today, which knowing my luck means they'll file for bankruptcy by Monday lunchtime #marsh

And will you be apologising if you are wrong Chid, and the ruling is favourable to CBG?