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Dan, we may have to agree to disagree on that as I’ve seen others, and published articles (some repeatedly cited by Zen on here) that interpret Faron’s findings as meaning that Traumakene is a much reduced opportunity for the company than originally hoped... don’t get me wrong, I believe it’s still a potential opportunity nonetheless
There's huge volatility here on very little in the way of new information... don't forget that Faron themselves issued a speeding ticket recently for that exact reason. This share is definitely being played to some extent.
People also need to get past the whole £8.50 historic highs rhetoric - a lot has changed for Faron since then - the market for Traumakene is at best 1/3rd the size it was expected to be back then, and they are actively looking for financing solutions to get the drug to market, rather than just partnering up to sell the drug once it's fully approved. That makes a huge difference to the strength of Faron's hand in any partnership negotiations, and any funding by any other means is still ultimately dilutive.
My advice to anyone that has an average cost price in the 60/70/80's at this point would be re-evaluate (as you should with any share following a significant movement/event), and to seriously consider top-slicing your holding, even if you still feel bullish on Faron's LT prospects... the risk for me is identical to a month ago, but the reward/upside is now 50% smaller
FWIW I still think there's a lot of LT potential here, much more so in Clevegen now than Traumakine, but Clevegen is very much a long term play.
Hi Dan, sadly not - I top sliced 35% of my holding in the high 70's and left it out when it dropped back into the 60's... fortunately this is exactly why my strategy was never to be fully out, so I've still got 65% of my chips in the table, so to speak.
I do feel for Mani though - I think for exactly the same reasons as me she decided to exit fully, having watched the SP stagnate over months it was just really bad timing (on both our parts), and I stand by my assertion that nothing has fundamentally changed over the course of the past month, aside from the underlying sentiment... really this should never have dropped below £1 in the first place (IMO)
Whilst I'm obviously delighted with the fact that I'm now comfortably back in profit here I'm struggling to understand why - as far as I can tell nothing has fundamentally changed at all over the past month, other than the slight dilution needed to kick the can a bit further down the road re. partnering discussions, presumably as an indirect result of YODA delays.
I know the usual suspects will jump all over this post and bury it, but if anyone wants to correct me and highlight what price sensitive news is now in the public domain that wasn't a month ago then feel free. The only other argument is that the market was hugely undervaluing the company for months, which may well be the case, but I'm not sure why the sentiment has suddenly changed.
As an aside - this is what irritates me so much about AIM, you get all these really volatile SP fluctuations that don't have any real logic to them!
Re. the comments about it being £9 previously - you’re comparing apples with oranges. When it was £9 previously Traumakine was expected to be a viable treatment for all ARDS patients, not a genetic sub-set. Faron were also expected to fully fund through phase 3 and on to market, meaning less risk for a partner and a much stronger negotiating position. The only way this is returning to anything like £9 is with significant positive news flow on Clevegen over a sustained period of time... there are some on these AIM boards that are far too blinkered
I'd suggest setting your sell qty to one when doing that just incase you hit the wrong button... lots of people do it, which is the real reason why you get 1 trades going through from time to time - despite what the conspiracy theorists would have you believe.
If you bought at 6p and 8p then why did you sell everything at 17.2p specifically? In the grand scheme of things there was a very small window that it was possible to sell at 17.2p+
I'm not suggesting that you're exaggerating - it just seems to me that there are an awful lot of people posting on these boards after the fact who always seem to have bought low and managed to sell right at the top... but then I guess I only ever hear about the accumulator bets that my friends have won too, never about the ones they lost
Bad - if you read any of my previous posts you’ll realise that my £9/share comment was tongue in cheek... I reduced my holding yesterday and will look to top back up sub-70.
As others have said though, not sure why you’re even on this board if you’re not a holder and have no intention of buying in, feels like a waste of everyone’s time
Cagney, if I picked an AIM share then posted 20 messages a day saying it was about to rise rapidly then there’s a reasonable chance that I’d be ‘right’ too eventually - don’t encourage him ;)
Hope you took the opportunity to re-evaluate your position yesterday - a c. £8.5k gain is a great result from a stock that you were considering exiting with a c. £3.5k loss fairly recently...
I’ve got away with it a few times now, I’m fully expecting my luck to run out at some point (which is why I’m never 100% out)! In hindsight I timed it badly today though, I was expecting a pull back into close so I could have banked another 10% at least...
They were vaguely interesting I thought yes, but now we’ve had the speeding ticket I’d say they serve to strengthen the argument that the SP can move very fast on any trading activity that’s slightly outside the norm, due to the limited free float. The trades themselves may not have anything significant behind them.
Dan - I’m obviously transparent enough that you’ve got a handle on my trading strategy here already? ;)
In the interest of full disclosure I dumped a portion my holding for an average of high-70’s today (have to admit I thought the rise was overdone at that point, so was panicking a bit about a genuine leak by late afternoon), we’ve seen similar movements before here so I was happy with the risk whilst still keeping some skin in the game. Anything in the 60’s I’ll be buying back in to over the coming days.
Yep - clarification RNS, entirely expected I’m afraid...
If any LTH’s got out today then congrats, great opportunity to average down! Also hope that prospective new investors did their due diligence and haven’t been spiked!
Normal business resumes tomorrow