Member Info for Kev7722

No, but depending on your average cost you may want to seriously consider top slicing... for example if you are lucky to have an average in the 60’s you may now be sitting on a considerable profit. DYOR of course, but for me the risk remains pretty much the same as it was when the share was trading in the 60’s very recently, and the potential upside from this point is smaller, so there’s nothing at all wrong with taking some of that profit off the table as far as I’m concerned.

All you need to do is walk into any casino and you’ll see how hard it is for a lot of people to take money off the table when you’re winning, and how much it can hurt when you don’t. As much as people on here may have differing views on Faron’s prospects I doubt anyone will disagree that AIM can be an incredibly volatile market.

Dan, I’ve listened to the end of the interview again and agree that they certainly aren’t giving up on the other 2/3rds of ARDS patients; I also took his comments to mean that they were concentrating efforts of getting the treatment to market for the first 1/3rd in the short term though, “Then later on we can learn to deal with the other 2/3rds”

I think the primary purpose of YODA was to prove the impact of steroid interference, which would now clear the roadblock for brining the solution to market for the first 1/3rd... either way though hopefully they will clear that up for us all in the current quarter, rather than kicking YODA down the road as a footnote buried in their next RNS - as was the case when they pushed it back to Q2

Until it’s actually approved for market and being delivered to patients the worst case is a market of zero, surely? Even if it is approved to go to market if they can’t make the treatment work for all ARDS patients there is also a higher risk of a competitor finding a solution that works in all cases, which would eliminate the need to determine whether the patient falls into the right genetic subgroup...

Dan, you need to look up ‘inflection point’ and put it in the context of the article - they are saying that they have identified these (possible) future events as being materially significant for the company, and hence for shareholders. So no, they don’t have a partner onboard yet, just as they haven’t rebooted Traumakine to focus on the genetic subgroup yet, or at least as of late February.

No agenda here, I just like to fully research and give balanced views. When this share was at £8.50 the board was still full of people ignoring all the potential downsides and talking about £25/share being just around the corner... infact you see it on pretty much every AIM board

Just to back that up with a reference - a couple of key quotes from the proactive article back in late February:

(Inflection Point) “Traumakine reboots as a treatment for a specific type of ARDS sufferer who has a special type of genetic mutation known as C/T.”

“Traumakine is a smaller opportunity now but still substantial for Faron...”

Dan, we may have to agree to disagree on that as I’ve seen others, and published articles (some repeatedly cited by Zen on here) that interpret Faron’s findings as meaning that Traumakene is a much reduced opportunity for the company than originally hoped... don’t get me wrong, I believe it’s still a potential opportunity nonetheless

There's huge volatility here on very little in the way of new information... don't forget that Faron themselves issued a speeding ticket recently for that exact reason. This share is definitely being played to some extent.

People also need to get past the whole £8.50 historic highs rhetoric - a lot has changed for Faron since then - the market for Traumakene is at best 1/3rd the size it was expected to be back then, and they are actively looking for financing solutions to get the drug to market, rather than just partnering up to sell the drug once it's fully approved. That makes a huge difference to the strength of Faron's hand in any partnership negotiations, and any funding by any other means is still ultimately dilutive.

My advice to anyone that has an average cost price in the 60/70/80's at this point would be re-evaluate (as you should with any share following a significant movement/event), and to seriously consider top-slicing your holding, even if you still feel bullish on Faron's LT prospects... the risk for me is identical to a month ago, but the reward/upside is now 50% smaller

FWIW I still think there's a lot of LT potential here, much more so in Clevegen now than Traumakine, but Clevegen is very much a long term play.

Hi Dan, sadly not - I top sliced 35% of my holding in the high 70's and left it out when it dropped back into the 60's... fortunately this is exactly why my strategy was never to be fully out, so I've still got 65% of my chips in the table, so to speak.

I do feel for Mani though - I think for exactly the same reasons as me she decided to exit fully, having watched the SP stagnate over months it was just really bad timing (on both our parts), and I stand by my assertion that nothing has fundamentally changed over the course of the past month, aside from the underlying sentiment... really this should never have dropped below £1 in the first place (IMO)

Dan - "Wow what have I missed!"

Nothing, that's exactly the point I'm trying to make I think :/

Whilst I'm obviously delighted with the fact that I'm now comfortably back in profit here I'm struggling to understand why - as far as I can tell nothing has fundamentally changed at all over the past month, other than the slight dilution needed to kick the can a bit further down the road re. partnering discussions, presumably as an indirect result of YODA delays.

I know the usual suspects will jump all over this post and bury it, but if anyone wants to correct me and highlight what price sensitive news is now in the public domain that wasn't a month ago then feel free. The only other argument is that the market was hugely undervaluing the company for months, which may well be the case, but I'm not sure why the sentiment has suddenly changed.

As an aside - this is what irritates me so much about AIM, you get all these really volatile SP fluctuations that don't have any real logic to them!

All of which is still clearly only one variable in a much more complex calculation that presumably factors in pressure too... given that 1100 is not 4.3 times bigger than 700

Re. the comments about it being £9 previously - you’re comparing apples with oranges. When it was £9 previously Traumakine was expected to be a viable treatment for all ARDS patients, not a genetic sub-set. Faron were also expected to fully fund through phase 3 and on to market, meaning less risk for a partner and a much stronger negotiating position. The only way this is returning to anything like £9 is with significant positive news flow on Clevegen over a sustained period of time... there are some on these AIM boards that are far too blinkered

I’m honestly not sure how the market will react to this news - off the top of my head I can’t think of a good comparative

Getting boring now

I'd suggest setting your sell qty to one when doing that just incase you hit the wrong button... lots of people do it, which is the real reason why you get 1 trades going through from time to time - despite what the conspiracy theorists would have you believe.

If you bought at 6p and 8p then why did you sell everything at 17.2p specifically? In the grand scheme of things there was a very small window that it was possible to sell at 17.2p+

I'm not suggesting that you're exaggerating - it just seems to me that there are an awful lot of people posting on these boards after the fact who always seem to have bought low and managed to sell right at the top... but then I guess I only ever hear about the accumulator bets that my friends have won too, never about the ones they lost

Bad - if you read any of my previous posts you’ll realise that my £9/share comment was tongue in cheek... I reduced my holding yesterday and will look to top back up sub-70.

As others have said though, not sure why you’re even on this board if you’re not a holder and have no intention of buying in, feels like a waste of everyone’s time

Cagney, if I picked an AIM share then posted 20 messages a day saying it was about to rise rapidly then there’s a reasonable chance that I’d be ‘right’ too eventually - don’t encourage him ;)

Hope you took the opportunity to re-evaluate your position yesterday - a c. £8.5k gain is a great result from a stock that you were considering exiting with a c. £3.5k loss fairly recently...

Badshah - you must be pretty new to this board if you think you’re entitled to an opinion other than that we’re about to be worth £9/share...

FastMoney - absolutely spot on!