Member Info for Kev7722

Well my £6k buy is now up there at 3:58, so maybe I just got incredibly lucky...

To clarify - I don't mean that I was waiting for it to tank, I mean that I was surprised it did and re-assessed my position accordingly

I'm less sure about this - my limit order @8.9p was triggered this morning and I was happy to sit out and watch until it tanked at lunchtime... I just picked up £6k worth on the first time of asking through AJ

Ah, but don’t forget that the last time the SP shot up he’d mysteriously closed his short and bought loads of shares out of hours, so he’s obviously got access to a secondary market

I’m sticking with it... it’s going up tomorrow!

I try and retain as balanced and unsentimental an outlook on a share as possible... currently out of FARN but watching closely. As much as I disagree with Zen and others about how bullish they are here (and the constant partner references do get tiring, yes) I do respect the fact that they are clearly invested here, and have literally bought into their views.

I may of course be wrong, but I am however very skeptical about the claims that Gammy is shorting FARN... even though I do agree that the SP could well drift towards £1 if no further newsflow in the short term... particularly as the longer we go without this much promised partner news the more likely it is that FARN will be raising again later this year.

It is moving quick to be fair - he never said it would be moving up...

It remains very much a long-term play. The absolute earliest that sports betting will even get put to a vote in California is November 2020.

FARN certainly seem confident that a partner deal(s) is imminent, hence the last raise being relatively small. The only problem with this is that if only kicks the can a bit further down the road. No deal in the next couple of months makes another raise significantly more likely in order to keep the lights on. But then, to coin the phrase, is no deal better than a bad deal?!

My thoughts exactly! If the additional work was required in order to produce this entirely underwhelming BFS then the original figures must have looked like absolute garbage!

Hi Mike,

Yes - different type of mine/proposition I guess, so it's probably comparing apples and oranges to some extent re. the capex costs... even with a compelling financial case though $400m is a lot of money to magic up

Also agree re. the IRR disappointing when stage 1 of the BFS was released. That goes back to my earlier point; the numbers (IRR included) looked much more palatable once they'd released stage 2 of the BFS... IMO that was a big error on their part - don't release half the data first if it's really underwhelming, and then once the damage has been done go, 'Oh wait - here's the rest of the data and now it doesn't look so bad'

Sounds like we're all in the same boat then in that we're not expecting the BFS to result in fireworks, but very much looking beyond that to financing / partner news.

Just to add that I've been in HZM for a while now... again I wasn't expecting fireworks from the BFS, and found it rather bizarre that they announced the release date in advance with significant fanfare and it sparked a flurry of buying from people thinking they'd make a quick profit... obviously we know now that they didn't!

Personally I didn't think their BFS was that bad; it's a good example though of how even the company doesn't always correctly judge the sentiment of their own market sector. The only real mistake they made (IMO of course) was releasing the BFS in two tranches - with the second looking far more attractive... by then the damage had been done

In reality any SP movement related to the BFS is going to be entirely driven by the numbers used in the assumptions, and how they stack up in the current market. Key ones to look out for in my opinion will be:

- Post-tax cash flows over mine life (the projected lifespan will itself play into NPV calculations)
- Post-tax IRR
- Cash cost per unit of copper recovered/produced
- Capital cost estimate (and I'd be looking at how much contingency has been built into this as an overall % of the capex projection)
- Base case (and high & low cases) assumptions re. copper prices... this is very much one to watch in the current market, as it's easy to manipulate a BFS make the project look more attractive by using... 'optimistic' price assumptions.

Hopefully the numbers will stack up and the market will react favourably, but I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the BFS itself as being the SP driver - I think news that the BFS has ultimately translated into the required funding, and the basis of that arrangement is going to have substantially more impact on the SP

In other words, AJW is correct

Guys, it's been great to watch this share recover lost ground over the past few weeks, but now that we're back at the level we were pre the October INTEREST trial update I've had to re-evaluate, and for now I'm happy to take my modest profit out at this point... I maintain that the drop from the 120's to 60p was completely overdone, but for me there just hasn't been a compelling enough case yet to warrant significant upside from this point.

Appreciate that others here hold a very different view to myself on the short-term prospects, and I wish you all the best... I'll check in from time to time (or of course if I buy back in), but I don't make a habit of routinely posting on shares I'm not invested in ;)

Just to re-iterate what I said in the aftermath of the PASPA repeal - anyone who's done their DD on the situation in California will know that legalising sports betting there was always going to be a far longer and complex process than in most of the target states... there's a good chance that it won't happen at all

The point about the impact of the BFS on the SP is valid - it's entirely possible that it will have little impact, or even a negative impact in the current market. In terms of the life cycle we're in the orphan period; the value driver is the institutional investment itself, not the case for investment that is laid out by the company

Dan - my understanding is that they are still in phase II, although I admit I haven't been following the competition closely enough...

I think both of us are on the same page when it comes to the need for Faron to make Traumakine a viable solution for all patient subgroups - and they certainly seem to have time on their side

It’s an entirely valid point - barriers to market penetration include competitors, that’s just business 101. If Faron can’t make it a viable treatment for all ARDS patients (I appreciate that they have a plan in place to try further down the line) and a competitor brings a ‘catch all’ drug to market then Traumakine is effectively obsolete

Not a lot of love for KOOV over on the other board... I don't suppose anyone has a fairly balanced view of the outlook? I think most of us know that broker targets are just fingers in the air at best, and at worst an underhand attempt at manipulating a SP