Member Info for Kendall12

Chat GPT - I should of known sooner, all a load of nonsense. Sell side reports - hilarious

just give us your numbers and stop being a ***** - its very simple 1) aquisition price 2) property estate sales price 3) annual free cash flows years 1-5 , 4) operating business sales price year 5

must all be at your finger tips -

there is no double counting of rental leases, the £125 is the uplift form teh sale of remaining properties wholly owned. it does not include current rentals.capex largely remains with operating company for plant and equipment- other capex hardly a deal breaker

irr is a the discount rate that equates the npv of a project =0

for someone who thinks an mbo is performed by shareholders and the historic sunk cost paid by mediclinic for its shares is relevant your contsant criticim and condescending be-littling of others is more than a bit rich.

Kjn2 - why are you so rude to everyone. You compliment Datron on a post and then effectively call him an idiot for not knowing how to model a SLB, whilst contradicting everything he said in the original post that you complimented him on.

I will make life easy for you 1) Your purchase price at £2.50 = £1.01 b 2) Your anticipated SLB, sales price - please let us know £ ???? 3) your annual free cash flows years 1 to 5.(dont forget the operating lease rentals)

I can discount the annual free cash flows back to year 0 at 20% (your easily achievable IRR ) and lets see how the numbers stack up ?

This can only work by having a plan to significantly improve operating margins and free cash flow generation.

Datron - thats a very well reasoned summary and very useful. On the NHS revenue as you say 30% , I was merely trying to make the point that at the margin it might only account ofr 20% or probably less of the bottom line.

Looking at the 2025 accounts Spire only generated £64m of free cash flow as currently structured. On a 8% yield that equates to a valuaton of circa £800m under your methodology. If sold, we can add interest savings on debt (£325m) and interest earnings on cash balance (800m - 325M)- that is circa £25 of further free cash flow but and its a big but there will be circa £125m of annual operating lease rentals, thereby free cash flow is likely negative, as will yield and that probably renders the underlying business as is, as worthless.

I don't see how a sale and leaseback would achieve unlocking value nor get near the sort of numbers being banded about.

Spire can only be of interest to trade buyers looking to enter the UK market, divest it of all NHS work and introduce all the good things that are expected to transform the healthcare industry over the next five years. It needs a trade buyer and a CEO with vision. Ash was not great at Oasis and converting NHS dental practices to private was a cake walk by comparison to this situation.

Bridgepoint was muted at £2.30 or circa £929m for £64 m of free cash flow - thats only circa 6.8 % yield. I don't see how the underlying business can close the gap with just £64m of free cash flow. Huge disconnect between the perceived asset value and its yield. Listening to Chris Mills at Harwood he endlessly refers to Spire being undervalued because it is stuffed full of real estate! Thats about the limit of his insight.

It is going to be difficult if not nigh on impossible to sell this at the levels that the anecdotal would seem to suggest. Actually, £2.30 (if true) is a pretty decent bid.

Dartron, Whilst I agree with your overall summary, its highly questionable as to how applicable it is to SPI.

SPI owns a highly specialised estate from which it operates hospitals and clinics. £200m invested over last 18 months alone and many of the hospitals in prime locations. Replacement cost will rise year on year. That provides the value of SPI Estate with far more protection than a block of flats during times like thes.

NHS is overdone, its only about 20% of the business, its important at the margin but it could decrease to almost zero over time. Within 5 years robots will be performing routine surgical procedures such as hip and knee repalcements - the thru- put of patients will increase massively and the attendant costs will drop massively. I supect that industry insiders like Mediclinic are not chomping at the bit to sell right now, and quite rightly so because they understnd where the industry is going.

The real drag on valuation will be if SPI fails to grow earnings and thats a decision for individual investors to make. I believe it will grow earnings substantially and Political change as well as the technological adavances will also be a key driver of this.

As bigdaddypump rightly said, this is a healthcare company not a property company. A break up and SLB is not going to cut it for the likes of Mediclinic. Its not the best way to realsie, just the easiest way for PE firm. Buy it, sell the property you have the operating company for free. Its not going to wash. Its far better suited to a trade buyer or a soveriegn wealth fund given property asset backing.

I would be very happy to hold this stock for the next five years or more. If a buyer appears, it will be during better times and this will be reflected in a more realistic price tag.

The Board have no control over the sale process. That rests with Mediclinic as they can block any bid. Why would anyone sell a valuable asset at a time of market disruption. The obvious move is to walk away from a sale at this time. There is no point in proceeding with a sale process that will not deliver the value being sought by Mediclinic. So one has to assume that Rothchild/Board are seeking a bid in this ball park or they are complicit in wasting everyone's time. Currently we remain in an offer period.

Continuing with a doomed sales process to prevent the Board losing credibility is absolute nonsense of the very finest kind.

It is absolutely clear that your self serving comments are merely aligned with your own personal position which seems to indicate that you have lost more money than can afford to on SPI.

Now now don't be abusive - its not a good character trait. M for Management , B for Buy just the O for you to work out. Super Belly Laughs for free all round

Totally agree - its as if Healthcare is being written off completely. This is a very valuable asset (including the opearting company) and it exists in a sector that will see huge transformational change over the next 5 years. Kyn2 has completely lost the plot - take a distressed low ball s-hit offer now or write off their investments ! Thank god he does sit on the Board.

I am very happy to play the takeover story with a small CFD position, its just a gamble, but even happier to hold shares for next five years or more as they will be trading at a huge premium to todays valuation which is now totally disconnected to fundamentals and future prospects for the sector.

That is a dumb question - I don't know and nor do you what the property valuation is and we are not privy to key future metrics, operational strategy and much more. Without that you are just lickin your finger and holding up against the wind. All we know from anedotal evidence is the level at which major shareholders might beecome interested in doing a deal.

You also have no basic grasp whatsover of basic economic theory. Cost of investment is a sunk cost and there is nothing that can ever change that, it is totally irrelevant to current investment decisions. Being underwater as you say is irrelevent.

For the main shareholders its very simple assessment - fair value now versus future expected value - ie opportunity cost/benefit of remaining invested in SPI.

I don't see much point in selling into the current market unless they have better opportunities to deply the funds elsewhere.

Kjn2 - given that you seem to know precisly how much various particpants could pay, for starters perhaps you would let us all know what the Estate Property Valuation is ! Without that, your guesses are just that, complete and utterly meangingless guesses.

Property valuations do not necessarily fall during inflationary periods. Hard assets can do rather well and replacement costs also rise.

Your comments probably more relevant to general housing market and mortgage rates.

That’s my point- major shareholders want £3+ which unlikely to achieve in today’s economic environment so better to focus on the business and return when back drop is more favourable.

Major shareholders are highly unlikely to get excited about selling at a level around 12 month consensus broker forecasts.

£3 + is correct figure - may not achieve a bid for that, so it will not be given away at this time and quite rightly so.

Everyone would be best served by having some patience and waiting for the strategic review to end. If there are other potential bidders, this a very price sensitive situation and major shareholders are treated as insiders and will for now remain silent.

So you know the property valuation ?

Its impossible to know if Briarwood Chase is investing in anticipation of a takeover as it is not generally viewed as an event driven fund but there is certainly huge value here with consensus 12 month broker forecasts concentrated in the £2.60 m-£2.90 range. I am not surpised in the least that funds are looking at this as it is undervalued, asset backed, and includes a zero takeover premium/ value delivery restructuring.

The real issue is not whether there will be a takeover bid but at what level does that bid need to reach.I still believe any deal would need to be around £3 or there is little incentive for major shareholders to sell. They are not distressed as far as I can see, so why take a distressed price which is less than the estate valuation, albeit I recognise that it is a highly specialised estate.

Keeping an offer period open whilst not talking to anyone is market abuse - you go speak to counsel. Turn your text book 180 degrees.

Its not the strategic review remaining ongoing, its an offer period - read the RNS issue when Bridgepoint walked.

Absolutely Bigdaddypump and quite a nickname you have, if I say so myself, certainly trumps Kjn2 !

Every post he makes is inaccurate. If the interested parties walk, SPI would have no choice but to issue an RNS to inform market that offer period had ended. SPI does not have a choice but to end it in this scenario.

Kjn2 is a very confused individual. I think he has lost all his sheep and he doesn't know where to find them.

Now he is exercised by referring to a year old article that Mediclinic want to sell, everyone wants to sell at the right price!

Prior to this he has been peddling a MBO by the shareholders (hilarious), including Mediclinic or forming some sort of consortiium into which major shareholders roll their stock into.

Seems in Kjn2 world, Mediclinic are both looking to exit whilst also looking to double down - he promotea an endless supply of nonsense and then abuses anyone that dares to question his continual repetitive diatribes. He is also teh only person in teh world who really knows how PE works and that only shareholders can remove board members.

Good for a belly laugh, I suppose whilst we wait for further devlopments.

I know losing money is painful but posting absulte nonsense will not help your cause. Sit back and wait for things to unfold. Otherwise get your placard out, inscribe it with "Where's All our Money Gone" and go stand outside Rothschild HQ.

Posted at 4.30 am on another board !!!! "Mediclinic want to sell their stake according to an article. So I doubt they would be happy wasting money to Rothschild while the share price has collapsed."

Thats what I call devotion to the cause, a true 24/7 keyboard warrior, abusing all in sight- unless of course you have super-glued your finger to the Google key.

That was a year ago ! I try and stay more up to date when siting reports. A lot has happened since then. Bless

"A 5% holder can’t force a sale " wow , the breadth and depth of your knowledge knows no bounds., it is truly astounding. We are lucky to have such expertise on show here.

" It was reported Mediclinic want to sell" - exactly where was it reported that Mediclinic want to sell. Chris Mills claimed they are willing sellers (no price mentioned) in a podcast , but perhaps you wpould like to substantiate your claim by posting a link or reference to where this was reported.

Everyone's a seller at the right price !