Member Info for Kendall12

It worth more than £3 - Tosca /Mediclinic will get control for £2.50 and roll into Newco. Its a good deal for them, not even close to the real estate valuation and prospects for private healthcare are improving massively.

Where is PE when you need them ?

The proposal includes an option for Spire Healthcare shareholders to elect for an unlisted rollover equity alternative in respect of some or all of their Spire Healthcare shares.

This is key part - allows Mediclinic to rollover it position into this NewCO and sure as day follows night they will seek to float in 3-5 years and probably do very nicely. Other funds/investors will not have a mandate to hold shares in a private company and its generally does end well for retail investors holding shares in unlisted private companies.

The only thing that still sticks with me is that it was also announced that Tosca was in the early stages of due diligence, despite the extended offer period.. Is this a deal to flush out higher bidders or is it a last minute rescue act. Not sure if we are at the starting line or getting nearer to the finishing line.

I still hold 29,725 CFD's but like you I am sanguine about holding the paper certs - seems a deal will complete, just don't know which one at the moment.

Correct foucus WOracle- £2.50 does not even cover real estate value - have to believe much more to come here.

Globex, Could not agree more, the guy is insane. He takes more pleasure in patting himslef on the back for my comments being inacurrate (even though the story is far from told) rather than for making a turn on Spire. In adcdition to his anger management issues he also has a premature condition - luckily both are treatable.

He also clearly does have a position but at least it will stop him from ranting about how much value management has lost since Covid .

My view is that this is far from over and if itgoes private with Mediclinic and Toscafund as the main shareholders I would bet my better dollar that it will be floated i n 3- 5 years at at least £8 a share. Thats why I remain correct that Mediclinic see far more value here than £2.50. Any way time will tell.

The release is also somewhat odd in that depsite the extended offer period it refers to dicussions with Toscaafund being at a relatively early stage . So it could be purely to flush out another offer or its a last minute rescue act.

Bigdaddy - Just hit £2.20, looking strong at the moment.

Poor old Kjn2 - he trades people not real money!

Bigdaddypump - if only £200k but it is substantial.

Difficult to understand exactly what is going on here. Looks like Toscafund is offering to buy out willing shareholders at £2.50 and those not wishing to accept can rollover their shares into an unlisted vehicle. I suspect that is what Medeclinic will do. As for retail investors never get involved in an unlisted or take private, its a deathtrap.

This could also all be a ploy to flush out Bridgepoint or another with a higher offer. I stil believe that there is more value than £2.50 here and might be a very sweet deal for Toscafund and Mediclinic.

I told you I would get ny £6000 back quickly ! As I write CFD's at 217.50 - I added 30,000 at 207.5 but am getting twitchy ( now hold just shy of 100,000 CFDs and £81,375 market value shares.)

Don't want to repeat my last mistke but feel pretty comfortable holding the shares for now..

Better get back to the screen.

Hands are tied unless its a "despite our best efforts we have been unable to find a buyer at a level acceptable to major shareholders".

Howver, that does not have to wait or should it be announced at the AGM if interested parties withdrew before the AGM sonprobably less likely.

If no reference is made to ongoing discussions so as to avoid triggering a PUSU I would take that as a positive.

We shall see shortly.

Lets see what tomorrows AGM brings. The conventional thinking is that the probability of a deal diminishes the longer the offer period remains ongoing. Having said that, this is not a normal offer period in terms of length so maybe this might be a indicator that a deal is still being worked through, and of course new entrants could have stepped up fairly recently.

I don't expect any announcements at the AGM not least because any deal would need to announced to all shareholders at the same time, not just those at the AGM. That will require an RNS.

5x - 20% margin.

Won't take me 5 years!

Darton- thanks for the good wishes but hopefully I will not have to rely on luck. The squeaky bum time has come and gone for me on this one. I own 40,000 paper share certificates in this now and a very small CFD position. I got killed on the gap down opening when Triton and Bridgepoint walked. I had a £25k profit at my fingertips but got greedy and ended up with a £6 k loss on my CFD's.

However when placing my CFD's I did not consider the management , and as you have also said, most people are here for a takeover - if you are correct I would bet my bottom dollar that when taking a punt on a takeover they did not undertake any anlysis of managements past performance. Quite honestly to turn around now and blame them for a failed takeover is childish and hypocritical.

I am not a massive supporter of management but this continual whining about them very time the SP falls is tedious. If you bet on an event, take personal responsibility if it does not happen. It is clear to me that the major shareholders are seeking a number beginning with a 3 and there is plenty of anetdotal eveidnce to support that. It is not managements fault that shareholders would not even consider £2.30 which I believe was a number leaked purely for tactical reasons.

As a long term value investor as apposed to an opportunistic trader (which I screwed up on this one) unlike Mr Grittiths first time around I will place greater scrutiny on the actions of management but again as you have concluded it does not work as an investment , by definition you realise this is a very difficult industry to operate (no pun intened) in, so assessing management fairly is a relaive concept.

I think managements hands are firmly tied as to any public releases or updates of any kind whatsoover. If we take at face value that SPI remains in discusssions with interested parties, it is clear those parties wish to remain anonymous so any release might trigger a share spike either way and cause the Panel to invoke the PUSU period.

As I have said I am now a long term value investor at what I believe is a very attractive entry price and I am in full support of shareholders seeking their precieved value, because if it is does not manifest now it will in the future.

I don't take much noitice of the algo trading, its exploiting exaggerated price movements due to the relative illiquidity created by small float and I would not be surpised if Briarwood and GLG were working in tandem - never know with hedge funds.

Its unbelievable, Kjn2 believes he has the authority to speak as to how Tosca and Mediclinic must be thinking and what they might do despite all the evidence to the contrary. His arrogance knows no bounds.

As for plan B, these are Kjn2 plan B's, a MBO with the shareholders buying out the company, a buying consortium involving the shareholders that wish to exit, an easy PE deal at £2.30p and the numerous PE deals involving the NHS which despite numerous requests he can not even name one. Its just absolutely pathetic.

As for a SLB he has no concept of a PE asset stripping a business with 30% NHS work.

Opco - its gets worse- sell up and move on because that is the only logoical thing to do given you views and that of your side kick Datron.

Why dont you just sell up, fill the piggy bank and move on - that would seem to be consistent with your views of this company?

Its a pretty logically argument, unle4ss providing belly laughs and acting the village idiot is your purpose in life. Just think you could have sold at £2.13 !

My position is very simple - I had a small holding prior to the stategic review which was actually in profit at that time. When the review was announced I opened a long CFD position- not huge, 92,000 CFD's and unfortunately I did not close the entire position at 2.10 so sucked up some losses. In the meantime I have built a position from £1.45 to £1.60 levels of just under 65,000 shares on the basis that on the funadamentals they are very cheap and there remains bid premium priced in at Zero. I would far rather maintain my position for the much longer term than accept a bid of £2.30 (last rumoured bid level) so I am pretty much aligned with the major shareholders in terms of extracting the true value here.

Its just so tedious listening to the village idiot being applauded by his loyal band of followers endlessly blaming management every time the share price drops on the back of hedge fund selling. Its better to wait for the end game but patience is a great virtue as your chum Buffet would tell you.

If you are not concerned about book value /estate value have a word with Chris Mills at Harwood because the main purpose of Harwood leading the strategic review was to realise value locked in the property estate. Its complex though as it cannot really be re-purposed and its best suited to an industry player due to hoispital/clinic repacement costs being much higher. That day will eventually arrive and those that have a long term vision will profit handsomely.

I think you should evalaute mangements performance in light of many other industry factors.

Gross Revenues up form £1.1 b to £1.5 billion in four years. Margins have been squeezed by overly regulated low margin NHS Government nonsense and external costs out of managements control.

There have been past offers recommended by the Board and rejected by shareholders - both offers would be worth in todays money be worth well in excess of £3.and £4 repectively. Whose fault is that ?

You seem to be arguing against yourself, if it is undervalued , then by definition value has been created. That value has jus not been recognised by the stock market and that I am afraid to say is outside managements control. SPI meagre 8% float is unloved by the market and hence US algo hedge funds that have no interest in the underlying buisness have enjoyed the last few months. I would not be surpised if they have been working in concert.

A lot of people are pointing selectively at certain metrics, but if a better understanding of the business model, the external headwinds faced by the entire sector and comparisons with other healthcare companies was performed you might form a different view.

Major shareholders have had years not to re-elect the Board members and given the contents of the Tosca Fund letter banded about (albeit its based upon, with the benefit of hindsight a load self serving blue sky nonsense) about one has to question why they have not choosen to do so.

Its not a question of defending the directors, its a question of understanding all the circumstances. If a bid of £3 or a restrucrturing is announced to release value will the Board then be hero's ? Shareholders are impatient and fickle. No one has pointed to anything in the way of management decisions that have directly caused the share price to be where it is. You can point at a lower dividend, FCF conversion but these are outcomes which should not be considered in a vacuum of the reasons behind these outcomes.

Dartron - I would draw your attention to the other side of the story.

1.AUTHORISE UK POLITICAL DONATIONS AND EXPENDITURE - this is a standard shareholders AGM resolution. Its boilerplate. Spire has not made any donations to any political party for five years and probably lonmger still.

2. The Warren Buffet quote to which you refer is inaccurate and is not directly attributed to him.The quote is usually attributed to Benjamin Graham, and often repeated by Warren Buffett . The actual phrase is "In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

For most invetors long run is 5-10 years but it in the case of Buffett it is recognised as being considerably longer than that.

3. Spire has invested £275 m in the last three years alone in refurbishments, new clinics and various scanners (MRI's etc).

4. You claim Spire has pandered to the NHS but provide no support to that claim. NHS work provides a rturn at the margin and converting resources to private work only is a complex and time consuming process and subject to Govt interference.

5. You fail to recognise even in passing that Spire has a Estate conservatively valued at circa £1.4 billion which is circa 2.3 x multiple of the current share price.

Given you view and that of the village idiot that no value has been cretaed in 10 years, what is the purpose of the Strategic Review?

I had understood it to be to release value in the company that was not currently not being recognised by the stock market. The village idioy also seems to be arguing against himself as he has repeatedly claimed that PE could "easily" fund a buyout of SPI at £2.50 share. What could it fund difficultly ?

Dartron - its your view that the management have not performed well and hence you would like to remove them by voting No to election of all directors.

My question to you is - on what basis have you reached the view that the Directors have not performed to a level to justify them remaining in post. I have provided reasoned arguments to support my view that management has performed perfectly well and cannot be held responsible for the stock markets failure to recognise the value that all other shareholders seem to believe exists within SPI, which by definition means value that they have created.

You talk about engaging with shareholders which is fair enough - but what extactly are the issues that you wish to raise with them that you are not happy with? If you are just referring to the share price as a manifestation of the issues (you specifically name communication only) that you are not happy with, they will reference the value they have created and the stock markets failure to recognise this which is outside their control. Perhaps you should list the various reasons why you voted NO to them being re-elected.

The fundamental issue is that before everyone starts condemning management, they have to have solid grounds for doing so, such as incompetence, mistakes or operational shortcomings.

Dartron, whilst that is your prerogative it will not serve any purpose.

Sacking the board is a totally ill-conceived idea and its one that irate retail investors habitually adopt as a quick fix rather than taking resposnsibility for their own investment decisions and thinking things through properly.

The reality and the facts here are that a Strategic Review was initiated because it was the opinion of major shareholders that the share price did not adequately refect the value inherent within SPI. By definition, that value must of been created by the current mamagement team, led by Justin Ash. Indeed one of the most vocal activist shareholders, namely Chris Mills, has publicly praised the current management team for their work. I have not seen any refernece anywhere to the current management having operationaly failed to run SPI in a professional and competent manner. I have not seen any reference to management mistakes or ommissions.

It was the Stategic Review that was the catalyst for the share price being at these levels and it has also attracted US hedge funds, CFD traders, shorters and alo traders to expolit the situation of a small free float largely at a cost to small retail shareholders.

With an Estate valued at circa £1.4 b, circa £260m of EBITDA and 12 month broker forecast ranging betweed £2.60 and £3.00 is it managements fault that the share price is £1.60? - of course it isn't, they don't control investor behaviour and they don't control the share price.

If you really want to trash the share price, quickest way to do that is to the sack the Board.

I would be carefull listening to the endless whining of the village idiot. He probably put his piggy bank on the line for a quick turn on a takeover and now has no patience to see it through so the toys go out the pram and its everyonbe else's fault except his own.

I note that you now talk on behalf of everyone else, the self appointed village idiot that knows everything about absolutely nothing.

Garbage is an American term, which makes sense as you must be a Trump lover given your endless repetitive posts and your hostile and narcissistic behaviour.

The reply can best be summarised as 'honest guv, its everyone else's fault but our own".

I don't blame Gibson, we would all probably do the same in his shoes and harvest large sums of cash over many years for doing very little and adding zero value".

I suspect he must be busy doing lots of other work (in his capacity as a Lawyer) for Mr Mellon and RPG is just a convenient vehicle to reward him through.

Blame it on the activist shareholders led by Chris Mills. A formal strategic review was not needed. Any serious suitor could simply approach the company in the normal way. Its no secret, and it has been the case for a long time that SPI is open to offers.

Football analogy is so dumb and on so many grounds its not worth explaining. The share price rose to 2.10 on the back of the leak/PUSU that Triton and Bridgepoint were sniffing around.

I dont see how one can conclude that Medeclinic and Toscafund must be fuming. They have had ample opportunity to remove Board or replace CEO over many years but seem not only happy not to do so but also to allow them maximum share option grants.