Member Info for Kendall12

Before I deal with your house renovation analogy. The single most important decision for P/E is how it can achieve its target exit strategy. That is multiple of initial investment and desired time frame. Your comments would seem to indicate that AI / Robotics/ change in NHS health policies/ projected property price increases etc are of no interest to P/E and do not figure in their calculations when formulating a bid price.

As for your house analagy , if I were of the view that the house was undervalued and that by investing the rental income in renovations that I would achive a 7x multiple of my initial investment within 5 years I would compute by bid accordingly.

Your analyis is incomplete and would give P/E a good old belly laugh

Sorry but you have no idea - balance sheet drawn up on the historic cost convention is no use to anyone.

P/E is all about the future - cost savings, revenue enhancement, projections based on best case, worse case, median senarios.

None of us, including yourself have any idea what P/E financial models will deem to be viable acquisition prices.

If you base your numbers on a balance sheet and bunch of outdated free cash flow historical outcomes for a business that can be restructured to drive effeciencies then more fool you. In any event the true valuation of the property portfolio which unless you are Mystic Meg, again do not have a clue what it might be.

You stick to your balance sheet and free cash flows, but they are of very little use, and as for Rothschilds they will certainly will not be relying on them upon them as they seek the highest attainable price possible.

What meaningful maths can you run when you have no idea of the property valuation, impact of AI/Robotics /Political change to name but a few important future drivers.

Its all pure guesswork.

Hang on a minute - it was a very vague valuation basis - whats a decent premium from here; 40% , 60%, 80% ?

I think he was very deliberately non commital on the valuation and constituted a decent premium.

I also got the impression that there other potential bidders, again due to his vagueness and inability to confirm just two- but I could be wrong on this.

I found it a very strange interview in that he concluded that any acquirer could do very well out of buying Spire and yet he remained very non- commital as to what he beleived to be a fair value price. Perhaps to be expected as his fund is a holder.

40% - £2.60

60%- £2.96

80% - £3.33

Pays your money, takes your choice

Its always far easier to appear super intelligent and gently massage ones ego by posting negative unsupported jibberish negative comments whist holding no position in the stock.

I tend to agree with you. Surely the key question is what will be the uplift in the balance sheet assets following the sale of the property portfolio and leaseback.

If its sold for book value clearly the SP will be unaffected and as you say any special dividend when made will be be matched with an attendant decline in the share price.

If there is a huge uplift this will be refelcted in the SP but once again when the special dividend is paid this will be relected by a matching fall in the SP, albeit the SP will reflect the (net) value uplift.

This not however the whole story as debt will rise sigtnificantly from the operating leases and of course SPI is excluded from any future property increases and a certain loss of control over its buisness.

S/L are best done by P/E without being under the glare of a listed company.

£3.75 is perfectly viable under a range of valuation metrics, whether or not this is offered, is another matter. Most of us are of course completely in the dark as we don't really know the true value of the Estate nor projections of how it may rise in future years. It certainly includes some very prime sites.

There was a post that concluded that because friends and family and those in the know were not piling in to print money at £1 a share, that the deal must be dead.

They attach more weight to that than 1) analyst views 2) press comments 3) the companies stated aim of restructuring including a sale 4) willingness of major shareholders to sell 5) extension of the PUSU period 6) cash rich potential suitors .......

Bridgepoint acheived a 4x return on investment when they sold Oasis Dental Care to BUPA. Interestingly Justin Ash was CEO of Oasis Dental Care at the time so he will have a good working relationship with them. Bridgepoint has recently taken a stake in MyDentists. Neither Triton or Bridgepoint are regarded as being aggressive asset strippers but I guess where opportunity lies to restructure a company and that might inlcude the property portfolio I am sure they will not be shy in doing so. I suspect there is considerable locked in value in the property portfolio especially in the context of the replacement costs of building a hospital. I dont believe that the Spire portfolio has been independendly values for some time - but do check on that. The only benchmark is the recent reported bid for the property held under the operating leases.

You are like a broken record - if SPI share chart is a thing of beauty as you claim over and over and over again you must have a very sad life. Work on your own holdings.

The extension of the PUSU period is a bit of a giveaway that suitors are working towards making bid, extensions are not granted without good cause and the Panel must be satisfied. A bid remains an uncertain event as does the level of the same.

I am also getting a little tried of this self serving and hypocritical position that the market is always right. Are you saying all stocks are always correctly priced?

Sorry for spoiling your input - lets hope M&G stop dumping at any price and thats a fact !

I have finally found the 8.3, it followed the 8.2 and preceeded the 8.4.

M&G make the filing but stock is held through a number of linked investment management vehicles. I suspect its just a number of those funds, trackers, small cap funds , ETF's etc that are selling down due to geo-political uncertainty.

Your suggestion that they are dumping at any price is out and out scaremongering and is why you decline to share with everyone anything to support your nonsense.

Look - the purpose of your post, which is clear to all, was to give the impression that M&G was conducting a fire sale of their holdings seemingly at any price as uy yopu say. Perhaps you would like to set out the recent sales and their respective % holding and others can make up their own mind.

Totally agree - AI and Robotics will be transformational for the healthcare industry on a number of levels including the carrying out of certain surgical procedures. P/E will be fully aware of this potential- its another way of playing AI. Political change could also be a major driver.

Justin Ash will know all about the refurbs and capital expenditure and again P/E will be fully aware of this potential.

No guarantee of a bid nor indeed acceptance thereof and stock is very tightly held are the best reasons I have. I think the SP action will begin in earnest when the first bid is delivered. Not long to wait now.

Perhaps you might like to be more precise with your language and assertions. Perhaps you might also like to substantiate your claims about o M&G rather than trying to misled people.

You maybe correct in your analysis, but any bid, if forthcoming, will not be predicated upon the current share price in any way shape or form.

The whole point of this exercise is that the major shareholders do not believe that the market value /SP reflects the true value of the company and not least because of the unecumbered property portfolio valuation.

Bids will be based upon tthe suitors financial analysis of the business and their target exit strategies.

I will say again all major shareholders (88%) are sitting tight as are a high percentage of retail investors. The SP action is merely CFD and day traders being played by the MM's. It is not correlated to the prospects of a bid or price thereof.

Patience is a virtue.

If there was no deal - the interested suitors would have announced it as required under the Takeover Code.

You are screaming no deal, not the market but perhaps you are delusional enough to believe you are the market !

Yet another wind up - stop wasting everyones time.

If there is more than one bidder announced that should mean an auction premium. - £3.40 plus looks very likely is that is the case.

Maybe Hailes, but the two named bidders would have been aware of the major shareholders wanting in excess of £3 at the outset, maybe even as long ago as last September.

When you say P/E equity have offered, which Private Equity firm are you referring to and what about the other potentail suitors? I don't think anyone will reveal their hand until just before the PUSU period expires - why would you? They will work the numbers , calculate your bid range and go from there. The current share price is not relevant to them as they know mananegement and major shareholders both believe it does not reflect the true value of SPI and that they have alternative options to a sale

Major shareholders will not roll over with their legs in the air and the serious suitors will do everything they can to get a deal - thats the very purpose of their existence.

As for Justin Ash, if Bridgepoint is the acquirer he will most likely join them given his past track record and connection to them.

Bridgepont has over £100 billion of assets under management worldwide

His Piggy Bank is empty - his sole purpose on here is to wind people up. He brings absolutely less than zilch to the party.

What have Hargreaves got to do with this? Andrews old butler maybe?

No, you are looking backwards unlike P/E.

Healthcare will be revolutionised as much as any other industry by AI and robotics. Spire has only just begun to impliment AI and robotic solutions.

Political change will also result in major positive outcomes for private healthcare providers both self pay and NHS.

All this and a property portfolio massively undervalued.

Its no wonder so many suitors are looking at a company, some are claiming is washed up and in terminal decline. Why would they if the future was so bleak? They seek exit multiples ?

Major shareholders would not sell at £2.50 a few years ago and prospects have only improved since then. Ithis will attract bids from £3 and up in my humble opinion and that is why all the main shareholders and most private retail holders are sitting tight.