Member Info for Kendall12

The final part of your post is correct - however the rest is inaccurate. Poetential bidders formulate their own bids and they will deleiver them to the Board of Spire as an when they see fit up until the dealine date.

They do not bat bid prices back and forth amongst one another - sorry but thats just not how it works. Once a formal bid is tabled, any counter bids will be considered by the Board and they will recommend their favoured bid and bidder to the shareholders.

Very good summary manfor - there are multiple backstops if a deal is not done, but sadly patience is not something many retail investors/traders/gamblers have, oltherwise I suspect they would all be a lot richer !

Cl2201 - I totally agree with you.

The interesting question for me is that given that SPI could itself enter into a sales & leaseback transaction directly (which P/E is fully aware) it would seem that SPI will require a premium form P/E or any other bidder to reflect this to some degree. Otherwise SPI could simply distribute the proceeds of the property sales by way of a (say) £2.80 special dividend. This is a good reason to hold the shares, regardless of whther a bid is tabled and accepted and another reason why stewart 81 comments would seem to be groundless.

Oasis is somewhat different in that is was a portfolio of highly inefficient, almost cottage industry privately owned dental practices.There was huge scope for operational savings/ revenue growth through consolidation & scale. SPI in many ways is a much cleaner opportunity on a number of grounds.

It would seem to be a perfect fit for cash rich P/E for the reasons you have highlighted, so valuation/ price is the big issue to get major shareholders approval.

I think more likely that P/E will be running the numbers under one of many scenarios for a sale and leaseback post acquisition not SPI.

Only reasoon for SPI to do a S/L would be to realise value by a return funds to shareholders by way of a dividend.

We have a benchmark valuation - £1.3 b for 12 hospitals currently leased to SPI.

A bid could come at any time now - the clock will not necessarily run to the month. Of course , if the deal nolonger works for one potential bidder it is likely the circumstances casuing that that will aplly to all bidders.

Its likely this process began in Sept 2025 and the deadline for expressions of interest was called for by the interested parties at that time to flush out any other bidders.

What a dumb comment - why would anyone accept an offer at that level for a property portfolio valued at circa £1.5 b + circa £270 m of earnings( rough guide)

An acceptable offer would have ben set out in advance - its not just potential acquirers that formulate financial models - sellers do also !

Included within that very interesting Savills research note and which caught my eye was section:

In November 2025, Blue Owl Capital was reported to be in talks to acquire a 12-asset UK private hospital real estate portfolio, operated by Spire Healthcare under long leases, from Malaysia’s Employees Provident Fund (EPF), in a potential c. £1.3 billion transaction. While the transaction was reported as targeting completion before year-end, it has not been publicly confirmed as closed. If executed, the transaction would mark Blue Owl Capital's entry into UK healthcare real estate.

What does that potentially value the "entire" Estate at plus there is the operating company. As well as we know, Blue Owl Capital may still be looking at lodging a bid.

We may just be in for quite a surprise on the upside as to valuation.

I have never understood why major shareholders would be at all intereted in £2.50 to £3 a share. They typically seek multiples and these levels are only broadly in line with current broker forecasts. Blue Owl could buy the entire Estate for that !

As much as they may wish to sell, they are not distressed and will not leave anything on the table that they don't have to. They view the company as being significantly undervalued by the market thus demanding an alternative strategy to realise this value. They will not be interested in valaution levels in line with broker SP forecasts.

So the 40% uplift that P/E applies is applied to what share price ? £1.70, £2.05 or £2.50 everyone expected expressions of interest would drive - Nonsensical post.

There has been no indicative offer as yet. Expressions of interest were invited within the deadline and the SP initially increased circa 25%. Numerous expressions of interest have been reported.

It has since fallen back, but there has not been as yet any takeover offer., so there is no discount between an imaginary takeover offer and the current share price. There has not been any terrible share price performance, - 88% of SPI is held by 25 institutions. Patience is called for here and hopefully those wo are prepared to exercise it will be appropriately rewarded if matters move to the next phase and then will see some significant SP action.

We live in a world where everyone expects things to happen instantaneously.

Only cars I have ever owned cost me annual tax, repair bills and they lost value every year.

No sign of earnings or free cash flow !

Probably one of the dumbest comments ever made on this platform

Its Chat GPT by the way and given I referenced it as my source, on a take or leave it basis, thats a wonederful peice of detective work on your part.

I can undertsand you being a little upset about the realistaion that debt is not deducted from the £1.5 b number specuated in the press.

Ramping - do you know what that means ? Perhaps another concept you have failed to grasp.

Shatter - let me expain as you are clearly confused. The £1.5 b figure quoted is the price paid to shareholders to acquire 100% of the share capital.

The cost of acquisition to the buyer is the Enterprise Value of the company which is the £1.5 b paid to shareholders plus any debt assumed and less any cash on the balance sheet.

Hope this helps

If Chat GPT is to believed, 88% of the shares are held by top 25 shareholders - that would certainly have a significant bearing on the price action.

The rejected 2021 Ramsey bid at £2.50 reported at EBITDA/EV of 11x (2019 EBITDA figure used due to pandemic effects)

Thats circa £3 b in todays money

Deduct debt and divide by 402 m shares

Huge disconnect with reported numbers , maybe a big surpise to upside here, is the replacement cost of a hospital more relevant that being attributed ?

Putting aside my error which does not really alter much the wider point I was trying to make, namely there is quite a disconnect currently, between the bid price range specutaion and a typical EBITDA/EV valuation metric. I don't know why?

Apeiron - you are absolutely correct - lease expenses should be be added back to EBITDA and would leave SPI on a very low EBITDA/EV

There is a good deal of misunderstanding being demonstrated here on how P/E operates in regard to base valuation metrics.

P/E typically employs an EBITDA / Enterprise value (market cap + net debt) - this ensures comparability across company’s and sectors

SPI has 403 million shares in issue and let’s assume £350 m of net debt. Enterprise value = 403m x 2.05 per share +£350 m

Enterprise Value = £826 m + £350m = £1.176 b

This suggest that to get to £1.5 b figure quoted that shares are being valued at £2.86.

Typical healthcare EBITDA / Enterprise value takeout bids are in the low teens.

If we assume 2025 EBITDA is £270 m - that equates to EBITDA/Enterprise value of just 5.5 x

ChatGPT indicates an enterprise value of £1.99 b. That gives a EIBTDA/EV of 7.4 x

Read into this whatever you like.

On the comments regarding P/E buying shares on market because they are cheaper than bidding for them is nonsense. Why would a P/E House accumulate stock on market at any price without any guarantee that it will ultimately lodge the winning bid ?

I would also ignore the podcasts comments of Harwood - lazy and self serving.

This will be determined by P/E assessment of the value that can be extracted out opf SPI (this will be due to a number of factors (including but not limited to, poor past management, political change, lifestyle and real estate mkt) in order to achieve a profitable exit within 5 years.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SPI/spire-healthcare-group-plc/company-page

Kinda unclear about significance as supports argument both ways.

I see there were two large off book trades yesterday at 3.48 pm at 2.08. 1)800,00 £1.664 m 2)608,302 - £1.265 m

Off-book trades are typically used to avoid moving the market and are normally block trades between institutions.

Make of this what you will but would seem there is a willing seller and an equally willing buyer.

No value at 1.80 but you would climb in at that price ??????

AA was a totally different and irrelavant set of circumstances to this one. The AA was in severe financial distress and would have collapsed without support leaving shareholders with notheing anyway.Under that scenario shareholders have to accept that they made a poor investment choice.