Member Info for Kasjnaton

Wacky, you beat me to my next post, the bit about MOU-NE got cut off, I was going to continue with the following:

8) Spud, drill and test MOU-NE plus 2 others

It shouldn't be forgotten that PRD have ordered 4 well heads, one is obviously for MOU-2.

Thoughts on the other three wells to be drilled (including MOU-NE) and the timeframe for those drills much apprecaited.

I suspect that as per point 8 above one of those drills will be MOU-NE.

Wacky, with regard to your last post about predicting share price I agree with you it is difficult to say the least, however if you put various assumptions into your post it can be qucikly seen where you are coming from and how you have arrived at particular valuations.

Out of curiosity how quickly do the various posters on this BB think that the next drill can spud? We have EIA to consider, long lead items, have they already be ordered? laying cement for well pad and time to cure, aside from financing are there any other apsects to think about? This is under the assumption that both MOU-1 &2 have commercial rates of flow.

Hi Keith, thank you for providing your informative perspective in answering GRH's question, I hope that readers of this BB will find some useful nuggets in my answer that I was deliberating whether or not to post after writing it up last night.

GRH, there are a number of assumptions to be made in answering your question, you also asked for some detailed logic behind the valuations. There is currently too many uncertainties which makes it difficult to give any share price predictions. What I have done though is considered what I feel are the key events between now and delivering first gas from MOU-1 and MOU-2, information to hand and CHAR due to them operating in Morocco, although PRD has several advantages over CHAR, e.g. drill capex etc.

Assumptions:
Only MOU-1 and MOU-2 are in scope
Testing shows that both wells are commercial and at the high end of contingent gas resources.
Additional financing will not impact negatively on PRD allowing retention of 75% field equity nor will it involve the issuance of further shares.
Key metrics from other comparable businesses, prime example is CHAR with a market cap of £179m, calculated from:
Shares in issue – 958m
Share price – 18.7pps
There are major differences between the two companies that have been raised many times previously.

My thoughts on the PRD share price at of each of the key events are:

1) Spud of MOU-2 through to completion of drilling
Share price anywhere from 20pps at spud, to 50pps as drilling is completed.
Resultant MC of £75m to £180m
Timing: mid/end of October

2) Release of MOU-2 initial drilling results
Share price anywhere from 40pps to 80pps as PRD moves into testing phase
Resultant MC of £150m to £300m
Timing: mid/end of October

3) Testing of MOU-1 & MOU-2
Share price anywhere from 60pps to 80pps during testing phase
Resultant MC of £225m to £300m

4) MOU-1 and MOU-2 test results
Share price anywhere from 80pps to 100pps with release of results in RNS
Resultant MC of £300m to £360m
5) Finance for next stage to include
a. Additional drilling, e.g. MOU-NE
b. How gas is to be delivered
Share price anywhere from 100pps to 150pps as confirmation that PRD is able to deliver next stages without further dilution.
Resultant MC of £360m to £540m

6) Construction of CNG development completed
Although significant to PRD I don’t think that this will be material to the share price.

7) Contracts signed for Delivery of first gas to customer(s)
I feel it is at this stage, or at least during the negotiation stage that the share price will start to reflect the value as detailed in the Novum report and we should see the share price somewhere in the region £3 to £4 per share.
Timing: End of March 2023 (perhaps a bit too optimistic?)

Next stage is out of scope at the moment but is on the horizon and if successful will dramatically increase the £3 to £4 per share valuation above.

8) Spud, drill

I have refrained from posting on here so as not to push the good quality information further down the board but Redbox if you think that Nigelisagoblin contributes massively to this board I suggest you 'wise-up'. Let's look at one of 'its' more recent posts:
"This was a hilarious paragraph, although he only appears to write in phrases hoho:
Low estimate discovery: £4.21 per share
Best estimate discovery: £12.37 per share
High estimate discovery: £27.52 per share
Decent figures ...but hang on
This is not the likely end valuation...
Some raving about MOU not being a CNG development buy utilising the GME pipeline (who knows which way it is flowing??). Well that was tosh as PG has clearly laid out a few ideas for a CNG project!

I think that it fair to criticise another posters calculations and I do not think that anyone would disagree with this, indeed even GRH said that these were rough calculations being derived from information provided within RNSs. If there is an error within the calculations then any argument stating that they were in error would and could stand up to scrutiny.

I have yet to see one calculation from ANY source that states that the above valuations are wrong, all that appears on this board from cerrtain individuals is worthless diatribe, with no factual basis that the above vlauations can not be correct because, well they just can't be, it is like an argument that a teenage Harry Enfield character would come up with, it's just so unfair...

If there was a fundamental error, for instance the valuations were out by a factor of 10 and turned out to be 'only' £0.42 for low, £1.23 for medium and £2.75 for high then this would surely have been quickly picked up by the likes of monsieur Goblin and his ilk.
At the end of the day people have invested in PRD are aware of and comforatable with the risk.
Anyone with a negative outlook on this company should provide the same detailed review instead of just pointing and saying well what about this and what about that.

So Goblin, redbox and the others, as have been mentioned many many many times previously, either you are short this company or are looking for a lower entry point, you cannot be invested otherwise why keep complaining mentioning all the negatives. If you really are invested then just sell up and go away, why remain in company that according to any of you is run so poorly?
Logically what is the point in the following if asked if you invested in a company and reply with "Yes I invested £10,000 in that comapny but it's a complete waste of time, they're rubbish". Why invest any sum of money at all if that is your opinion?

So Redbox, you suggest the the Goblin contributes massively to this board I disagree 100% and you calling another poster a snowflake does nothing to add to your argument.

Lastly, I apologise to everyone else who has already blocked Nigel the Goblin et al and I shall now do the same.

PrivateTesla
From the RNS released on 29th June
a) Confidentiality agreements executed with potential partners for follow-up drilling and potential gas development in Morocco.

Does this not state that the period of exclusivity would have started before 29th June?

No only that but, as mentioned by others, we might have alternative means of funding.

MEM has stated that he thinks there is about 18 TCF of gas in our licence area.

The calculation of a return of £15 per share, that GRH provided in his MC post, was for about one tenth of that.

People have criticised GRH's calcualtion but have not refuted the maths behind it which was all based on information provided within an RNS.

Now PG has clearly stated that he wants to prove up what he can and sell on in the shortest possible timeframe.

We will therefore not be able to prove up the whole 18 TCF, if there is indeed that amount of gas in our licence area.

GRH has also mentioned stub equity, it ought to be obvious to many on here why we would wish to retain a percentage of any discoveries going forward...

Polemic
The names of potential partners has not been given within the RNS but I don't think anyone was expecting their due diligence or the conclusion to the negotiations of the commercial terms to have been concluded yet, so would not have featured in this RNS.

We now have a timeframe in which those discussions would have started and have been completed within.
The good news being that the potential partners are happy enough to sign an exclusivity agreement and to carry out due diligence whilst negotiating commercial terms.

Updated timeline from my previous post (hopefully there won't be an issue with the formatting this time):

1) Lonny was in Morocco on the 17th Feb

2) RNS issued 8th March:
a) CPR released, material contingent gas resources has attracted significant interest in the Company's plans to further explore, appraise and develop gas.
b) PRD has signed Confidentiality Agreements with a company based in the United Arab Emirates and an Asian
exploration and production company to evaluate the exploration, appraisal and development opportunities in the
area covered by the Guercif Petroleum Agreement
c) Separately PRD has signed a Confidentiality Agreement with a company in the downstream sector in Morocco to
work together to optimise the potential market for gas from the area covered by the Guercif Petroleum Agreement

3) RNS issued 12th May:
a) Two potential farminees for the Guercif Licence selected from initial responders for further discussions
b) Two primary candidates for a potential farmin to the Guercif Licence have been chosen from the initial responses to
a targeted marketing exercise by the Company's experienced management team. The Company is proposing to
offer the successful candidate a sixty-day period of exclusivity to complete technical due diligence and to negotiate
commercial terms

4) Toady's RNS (29th June):
a) Confidentiality agreements executed with potential partners for follow-up drilling and potential gas development in Morocco.

I shall continue to stick with the 1st of June as the date on which the confidentiality agreements were signed and therefore the period of exclusivity started.

If it is a week earlier or a week or two later, I don't think it will make a great deal of difference.

It should also be noted that the proposal was for a 60-day period, the conclusion of which may occur well within that timeframe or for a variety of reasons may be exceeded.

If negotiations are successful and we enter into a JV then I expect the RNS with all of those details to be released end of July to mid-August.

Porters
He did indeed, that was part of his risk profile, he was prepared to invest elsewhere at the risk of losing out here in the instance that news dropped.
He was also fortunate, from what he has told us, to have made a good return on that investment and from that be able to buy back in here.
Other people's risk profile is different they chose to stay invested in here as moving money into another share may result in not being able to buy back in here or buying bacvk in with a much smaller holding.

Everyone has their own risk profile and demands for money, whether those demands or internal or external influences will again depend on the individual.
We might not even see 25pps, or if we do it might be very brief.
News can drastically change peoples opinions of when they are going to sell, all or a percentage of shares.

Hi carjcarj & GRH, thank you both for your replies.

As an investor in this company then of course I am going to look at the positives, i.e. there is risk that MOU-1 will not flow commercially but I think that this risk is low from the information that we have available to us at this moment in time, specifically the permeability, porosity and pressure values seem to indicate that it will flow.

As for PG yes he does hold a sizeable amount of equity but due to dilution is now down to about 17% from an orginal 30%, Lonny holds equity as well but is there enough shares held in total to reject a bid of say 40pps, let alone 80pps to £1.00ps?
(If of course MOU-1 flows commercially)

We know, from various RNS' that there is a lot of interest in PRD's Moroccan asset.
My thougt is that if a hostile bid were not a concern of PG's then why have we not already flow tested MOU-1? There has been opportunity for this and we have funding for it.
Yes there is the efficiency and financial element to simultaneous testing, but surely a succesfull flow test of MOU-1 would increase the share price significantly enough to make raising additional funds for the other wells become insignificant.

The only other factor is that PG has a concern that MOU-1 will not flow commercially.

carjcarj
Is there a concern (and if so how big?), that if MOU-1 were to be tested alone and flow rates were to be far in exxcess of those provided within the RNS from which the MC calculations were derived, that a hostile bid for PRD/licence area would take place, which although greater than the current share price would not be anywhere near what the potential valuation of the company would be if all wells were flow tested at the same time.

F&M,
Just thought that organising the pertinent information together in time order would help put some perspective on where we might be.
Of course the exclusivity start date might not have started yet and as Porters has pointed out I have not included SDX, their drilling schedule being another factor that needs to be considered.
As can be seen there is plenty of interest in the Geurcif asset.

Sorry all formatting lost in that previous post :(

Knowing how long the two primary candidates will have to reply to PRD and the time it would take Paul and Lonny to make a decision on which one to go with then you'd be able to determine the start date of the exclusivity period.

Fand M, I agree, Paul and Lonny want to get things moving as quicly as posible, I would imagine that the start date would have been around the 1st of June.

Thoughts from others on possible dates and timescales are of course welcome.

The detail regarding the number of days, and when they started has not, AFAIK, been answered, not only that but as BDT quite rightly pointed out, the wording in the RNS actually states: "The company is proposing(not has proposed)The successful candidate(singular)a sixty day period of exclusivity...."
From this line alone it can be seen that the companies approached by PRD may have requested a longer timeframe, say 90 or even 120 days as part of their response before entering into the exclusivity period.
It is all very much up in the air and open to interpretation.
All we can do is take the information that we do know and make assumptions about how things may have progressed with that information.
Please note that I have edited the information copied from the RNS' for sake of brevity.
1) Lonny was in Morocco on the 17th Feb
2) RNS issued 8th March
a) release of the CPR defining material contingent gas resources has been a catalyst for attracting significant interest
in the Company's plans to further explore, appraise and develop gas.
b) PRD has signed Confidentiality Agreements with a company based in the United Arab Emirates and an Asian
exploration and production company to evaluate the exploration, appraisal and development opportunities in the
area covered by the Guercif Petroleum Agreement
c) Separately PRD has signed a Confidentiality Agreement with a company in the downstream sector in Morocco to
work together to optimise the potential market for gas from the area covered by the Guercif Petroleum Agreement
3) RNS issued 12th May
a) Two potential farminees for the Guercif Licence selected from initial responders for further discussions
b) Two primary candidates for a potential farmin to the Guercif Licence have been chosen from the initial responses to
a targeted marketing exercise by the Company's experienced management team. The Company is proposing to
offer the successful candidate a sixty day period of exclusivity to complete technical due diligence and to negotiate
commercial terms

Will those two companies have been informed that they have been downselected before, on the same day or a day or two after the RNS was issued?
How long would it take for those companies to respond to being downselected. They will no doubt have to answer some questions that were not in the initial targeted response, not too disimilar to an Invite To Tender I would imagine.
Paul and Lonny will then have to examine the answers before choosing one or other of the companies.

The above does not help with determining when the 60 day period will start, if it has not already but hopefully put makes things a bit clearer.

Porters I completely agree with your statement about timescales not being an issue.
I don't think that investors are aware of just how busy Paul and Lonny have been or how advanced negotiations are.
It should be noted that specific companies have been targeted to enter into a JV with PRD, two of whom have been selected to enter into a period of negotiation for 60 days.
An overview of the terms of the JV was RNS’d, the approached companies are happy to enter into negotiations with PRD on those terms.
I suspect that a contract will already have been drawn up, a few changes might be needed before pen is put to paper but nothing major.
So that leaves the question of will the negotiations be successful or unsuccessful?
IMO the likelihood of either of the approached companies walking is minimal, the reason I say this is because Paul has shown a pragmatic approach when he stated words to the effect of “You leave something on the table for the other party.”
The only reason why a JV won’t be entered into is if Paul feels that the terms that are demanded during negotiations are too onerous and it would be better to go with dilution.
Paul can of course enter into negotiations with any of the other businesses that have been approached but external factors, for instance the desire to move into production as soon as possible, may negate that.

Jonmo91
It would not be "any" news that would cause suspension, it would have to be "significant" news to cause suspension.
Personally I have no experience of this so cannot comment on its likelihood but I feel that at this moment in time it is just speculation of what might happen as one of several possibilities.

Information on "Suspending, cancelling, restoring listing and reverse takeovers: All securities" can be found in chapter 5 of the FCA handbook, link below:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjRr8O_9__3AhWai1wKHdGoDlgQFnoECAUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.handbook.fca.org.uk%2Fhandbook%2FLR%2F5.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1O7Tx1ZFq43BQVwoa2SpNr

The handbook can also be found on the FCA website but is nbot so easy to navigate
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/browse-topics/

As for my tuppence worth on the current PRD situation, (anything to help with funding eh :-)), I would say that the management are confident that further dilution will not be needed.
Of course nothing is guaranteed.
The thing is they know that they have a discovery with MOU-1, as has been stated before the reserves have been upgraded from prospective to contingent.
The only thing that I have seen to state that it will not be commercial is the 25% chance given within the report of paperwork being completed.
Furthermore progress is being made with constructing well pads for the next drills, so all is in hand.

What do people think would happen if we flow tested just MOU-1 on its own? Is it likely that a bid could come in to take the whole of the Geurcif licence? If so any bid may severly undervalue this asset.
In truth this share should already by in the 40pps range.
All we have to do is wait, as frustrating as it is.
Quick question, is the start date for the 60 days exclusivity period for farmin to the Geurcif licence known?

Thanks for the reply

Have we had any updates on off take agreements using our pipeline?
This was due to be a significant source of revenue but does not seem to have been mentioned for some time.

Hi Highlandmatt
I do not know what GRH's position within the company is.

KeithOz's statement that the hyper-spectral images of NE Morocco are not publicly available is not true, indeed an image of a prospect within the Tendrara licence area can be seen but it has been anonymised in order to give it no exploration value.

Harrychrisna has provided the link, from the home menu, select news, from there it is the 4th article down.

AndroclesB, if I remember rightly GRH was quite vocal at the time saying that people should be wary of Sound and very cautious of having any money invested therein. I just wish that I had acted on that advice and sold out when the shares were circa 40p.

Part 5

probably over at the other place

However...I do very much hope that some here might appreciate the images..
and the work that has gone into them...it has been considerable

I am 'full' on GKP stock...

now you know why...

and, hence, I now have no issue with letting others here...who might be interested...
see ...at least low resolution versions of... what sits on my office wall...

I post these without charge...
in the hope that they might help put some of the thousands of excellent posts into a clear visual context...

AND/OR OF COURSE WITHOUT WARRANTY, IMPLIED OR OTHERWISE ...

in choosing to view such images, you automatically accept such conditions...
if you are not prepared to accept such conditions ...please do NOT view the images

How much oil do we own?

of course, I do not KNOW the answer
but I can tell you that the GKP images that I possess are, in their scale AND intensity,
quite unlike others I have relating to several other oilfields of other companies

So...let's just say that, purely personally, I regard BBBS's numbers as being rather conservative...

sorry BBBS...I hope you don't mind

Here are the images

(links removed due to dropbox bandwidth problems. Please see links in the header)

PLEASE do your own research, use your own judgement
and ignore as much 'noise' as possible...

Good luck as ever to all holders

I really am now signing off for Christmas

Regards

GRH1

Part 4

Of course, we have audit trails of things such as telling quoted companies in advance that their drill would be a duster
(among others...a high profile drill in Kurdistan ignored our data...hugely to the cost of the shareholders in that company)...
and analysing an un-related duster that cost me (it was before I met the satellite guys!) a large amount of money

as recently as the Mayfair Hotel presentation by GKP I showed a satellite oil map of Shaikan to a person from GKP..
and I told him that, in our opinion, SH4 would be EXTREMELY good...
he emailed me some while later ...AFTER the first RNS about the preliminary results from that drill....
to ask me HOW I had been so confident as to give him an ADVANCE prediction re SH4 that was SO accurate....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEAT

OK...so what...you ask?

Well, we have persuaded the scientists to allow us to post in public...for the first time...
satellite OIL images of Shaikan and part of Ber Bahr....

I am also posting a purely topographical MAP of three of the blocks...
obtained from a space shuttle programme
but with the block boundaries super-imposed for your ease of reference

Please understand that the OIL images are NOT in any way to be compared with the interpretation maps you see in various presentations...
IE they are not the product of a chap with a pencil or two

but massively important 'live' images...

There need to be a few conditions please ...but only a few...

As to Ber Bahr... it will be 'only' the south eastern block on the BB licenced acreage...showing the drill location for BB1

in the view of the scientists, that BB drill appears to be located sub optimally
(it is not dissimilar perhaps in relative placement to SH1 really within the Shaikan structure ...and look what happened there)
BUT...the scientists told me that they feel that BB1 should contain oil reservoirs...
although the technology cannot predict porosity/permeability depths of the accumulations...

and frankly ...if BB1 comes good ...
then one needs to look carefully at the rest of that southern structural map to see the upside there ...

it appears QUITE GOOD

and that EXCLUDES all the rest of the BB acreage and structures...

please bear in mind that for obvious reasons of commerciality,

I AM ONLY POSTING VERY LOW GRADE/SMALL SCALE/HIGH LEVEL IMAGES...

as the very detailed stuff still has great commercial value to me and my colleagues

but I can tell you that black is thought to be 'good'...
and we do see rather a lot of deep black here

I must also say that I am not able to answer questions ...
partly as I simply do not have time to engage in MUCH debate...
and partly for reasons of commercial sensitivity...I hope that you will understand

It is possible that my colleague in this venture will be prepared to talk with people...within commercial confines/on a limited basis...
p