Member Info for Kasjnaton

Daveyboy, since you ask if anyone has any ideas, just thinking along these lines.
IIRC from previous RNS' the best case volume of gas in place is about 20 TCF.
The recovery factor is, conservatively, just over 50%, so there is the possiblity of >10TCF of gas recoverable from the Tendrara licence area.
So when you consider that;
There have been delays in drilling and testing, trying to get hold of certain parts for the rig.
and
There have been delays with Graham struggling to get sufficient people to meet up to agree on refinancing of the bond
Who gains and who loses from the delays?
It wouldn't surprise me if the bondholders ended up practically owning the licence areas that Sound currently have, with all PI's suffering massive dilution.
Why would the bondholders want to give up such a valuable asset?

As for other companies to invest in, Ericnat has mentioned Predator Oil and Gas (PRD) which I think was brought to the attention of this board about a year ago, the share price at that time would have been about 2p, it is now 15pps, it may still be worth looking at, usual caveats apply re DYOR, I am invested in PRD and have now made up for the losses incurred whilst holding Sound shares.

I wish everyone the best whatever decision they choose to make.

I’ve heard murmurings that Trellis may still be active and working on a legal case against JP, Marco et al. Nothing concrete but no smoke without fire maybe there will be something more solid in the not too distant future.

Is Trellis still active? From what I have heard on the grapevine this is the case, how serious this is I have no idea but things could be taking shape behind the scenes, perhaps JP, Marco et al will be facing a court case.

Rumours are circulating that Trellis has not disappeared and that JP, Marco et al may well be facing a legal case. I have no idea how much weight to put behind this rumour but posting to say that interesting things could be developing behind the scenes.

I have heard whispers that trellis has not gone away, but is preparing legal cases against JP,Marco and the whole cabal. No idea if it is true or not- trellis may have given up and it is wishful thinking but perhaps JP, Marco et al might be facing more than just bad mouthing on BBs!

Sefton, you keep repeating your highly opinionated views on Flagstaff and their lack of involvement in IR.

Various and highly respected posters to this board have responded to you and stressed in a precise manner why this is the last thing to be concerned about, unless of course what you are trying to do is hype the company and thereby the share in order to trade it.

Which is a possible reason for you to keep on mentioning your other favourite topic, the ‘hedgie’, as you like to call them.

Where you have said that you are wanting them on board via issuing them with shares? As you know this will cause dilution and quite possibly a drop in the share price, after all how can you be so sure that any 'hedgies' will retain those shares and not just sell them into the market? You may be convinced by the prospects of this company but what is to say that the hedgies will be?

I think people had enough of the 250,000 seller from sometime back and are more than happy that whoever it was has now disappeared.

MEM's comment awhile back in getting them to sign a contract can be broken at any moment in time, so what if they have to make a pay-out in the form of a penalty for breaching the contract? I am sure that they will be able to play both sides of the market to make sufficient money that any penalty payment will be insignificant.

In previous posts you mention the company being short of funds and thereby being in a weak position when it comes to negotiations, I do not see why that would be the case, Paul would only negotiate from a position of strength when he has proven a concept or the asset. Furthermore we are close to;

1) more news from T&T,
2) news on Ireland could drop at any time
3) the drill in Morocco in a couple of months, which along with the introduction to a potential buyer looks to me like a scoping exercise

All of these will be increasing the share price and depending on how positive the above news is, the share price increase could very well be beyond current comprehension, why dilute now?

Why get 'hedgies' on board now?
Let the work that PG has done speak for itself, and whoever listens carefully will know that this company offers a massive opportunity, shouting louder than any 'hedgie' possibly can.

So Sefton, ultimately what is your goal? I am guessing, as stated earlier that it is to trade this share, to put doubt into investors minds that there may be dilution or weakness during negotiations, hoping to buy in at a lower price, pumping of the share price to sell into and buy back later at a lower price.

I suggest people should exercise a higher level of caution than is normal when reading your posts.

No need to apologise to me, if anyone, it should be Sound2 that receives the apology.

Hi Spawny100, I realise that you asked for GRH to clarify his perspective as per your calculations but as he is yet to respond then I thought I'd offer my thoughts and that is that I think your calculation is far to simplistic. If I am wrong on this then I am I will be promptly corrected.

For further reading on the subject see the link below;
core.ac.uk/download/pdf/154672038.pdf

You may also find the following link interesting;
www.geoexpro.com/articles/2019/04/the-hydrocarbon-pre-drill-prediction-toolbox

GRH's post on 9th Jan @ 17:43 contained the following link:
twitter.com/Oilman_Jim/status/1346420274212851714?s=20

Surely the reason that PG is confident in the commercial success of the Morocco drill(s) is not down to some basic stats but due to other factors;
Gas has already been found in that location
Analysis of logs by Nutech an external party to optimise the drill
He has experience of doing exactly this before in Morocco, see Fastnet for reference.

Lastly to put a bit of perspective to the following;
"I'm not absolutely clear if all the targets are indeed discrete and success at any one is completely independent of success at any of the others"

My understanding is that the chances of success, as per your calculation, are initial values and to give a guideline as to whether or not to drill in the first instance.
If the first target is successful do you not think that it will improve confidence that the work carried out is correct and that the probabilities of success for the other tragets may increase, don't forget that measurements are being taken all the time whilst drilling.
Likewise if the first target is unsuccessful do you not think that you would downgrade the probability of the other targets being successful, i.e. you have misinterpreted the logs and thereby incorrectly understood the geology.

Sefton82, saw you had posted whilst I was wirting the above. I think Sound2's comment was in reference to a buy of 6,666 shares, and nothing to do with GRH.

They discuss PRD at the 31 minute and 40 second mark.
However I don't think that they mention anything particularly informative about PRD.

On the 10th Feb Bradleybear said that each 100BCF of gas is worth between $50m to $150m.
On those above values;
2300bcf of gas is worth anywhere from $1.15bn to $3.45bn

Rosie, like BDT I am also in PRD. I jumped ship from SOU to PRD sometime ago, I now have a very small holding here which just is not worth selling.
One other thing that you need to consider that I don't think anyone has mentioned yet is opportunity cost, which I am sure you are well aware of.
Can you better utilise the money that you do have to get a better return on it than leaving it in Sound?

One instance , JTF suggesteed, I think, EUA as an opportunity to make some money back.

As for PRD do I tihnk it is worth investing in now? Well that depends on your own risk profile but the last few RNS' are all very postive and have derisked the share somewhat. Also look at what Paul Griffith has acheived previously and what he is looking to achieve with PRD.

My post does not refer to current energy supply issues but to future supply issues in which Ireland, by 2030, are required to have at least 32% of all energy provided by renewables.
See link below:
ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/necp_factsheet_ie_final.pdf

My point was that if the weather becomes more and more extreme over time the viability of wind and solar farms to operate is greatly reduced, particularly during times of greatest energy needs, this puts greater demand on traditional hydrocarbon power supply sources.

The example provided in the earlier links referred to Germany, perahps the most advanced of all countires when it comes to renewable energy supply.
The solar panels were covered in snow, so not operational and the wind turbines were not running as there was no wind, additionally the wind turbines needed to draw current from the grid in order to stop them from freezing solid.
In order to keep the country running Germany imported electricity generated in Poland via coal, France, Nuclear and Russian gas supplies.

Maybe Ireland will be able to meet those demands in 10 years time but maybe they wont, I was just raising the point of an additional problem that needs to be overcome by Ireland that I don't beleive has been covered as a subject yet, which may impact the value of PRD and what it is offering to Ireland.

Also typo in myprevious post, really should be rely

I've just come across the following in the news, which I've not seen reported here in the UK, and thought it worthy of its own thread;

www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqM9OIPzMHs

www.skynews.com.au/details/_6232075665001

It looks like with the more extreme weather conditions that we are experiencing Ireland won't be able to really 100% on renewables so there will always be some reliance on hydrocarbons, additionally not just the UK but continental Europe may want to make use of the planned FSRU capabillity, looks like we might need a bigger FSRU...

I'm no expert but thought I might be able to contribute.

You ask about other ways of being more certain before drilling.

Firstly I have carried out a lot of research on hyper spectral imaging and I've been very impressed by the ability of so called rsdd-h to reduce risk and thereby increase the likelihood of a successful drill, defined as finding commercial hydrocarbons.

GRH is the man in the know on this tech and hopefully he will comment on this further and include it when he writes about risk, which I am sure many people, including me, are eagerly awaiting his write up on.

I though, have no idea if PRD is making use of RSDD-H but just to put some things into perspective it can be useful to look at Paul's previous work in Morocco.

Going over the history of Tendrara;
TE-5 was a wildcat drill with a discovery made by MPE, see the link below;
www.ogj.com/exploration-development/article/17285544/maghreb-petroleum-discovers-gas-in-moroccan-well

Fastnet, which Paul was boss of, re-evaluated the field and planned to appraise that discovery but due to finances was unable to carry out this objective, see link below, specifically pages 11 to 15;
www.fastnetoilandgas.com/~/media/Files/F/Fastnet-Oil-and-Gas/reports-and-presentations/Fastnet%20Corporate%20Presentation%20April%202014%202.pdf

Sound then took over the licence and utilised Paul's work when they or rather Schlumberger’s expertise, managed to get gas out of TE-6 and TE-7.

Why mention this? It looks to me like Paul's MO is to identify prospects and fully appraise them to maximise value.

So he has taken the same route with the Guercif licence as he had with the Tendrara licence, identified an undeveloped discovery to appraise it and prove up the full value.

The other very interesting thing within the Fastnet presentation is on page 9, underneath the image is the statement:
"Fastnet "first mover" strategy prelude to industry recognising Morocco as a key frontier exploration area (yellow)".

Is this "first mover" statement not valid for all three of our licence areas? Particularly as Paul has said he thinks that PRD will be able to monetise PRD's Moroccan assets before Sound are able to sell gas.

First mover in Ireland is getting in there ahead of anyone else to offer the FSRU capability, as well as offering CCS.

The above may not directly answer your question as to whether or not PRD will be successful with the Guercif drill however it does go to show that Paul has experience in this and to use an old analogy he's been there and got the T-Shirt.

The above though should help to increase the level of confidence that investors have in Paul and what he is doing with PRD.

Hi Nicodemus63
Some more links that you might be interested in, these are from a purely ammonia perspective, not necessarily related to PRD, (Apologise to everyone else for the slight off topic);
https://ghgprotocol.org/ - This website has various standards, guidance and calculation tools, some of which are concerned with ammonia

https://ammoniaindustry.com/ - Website dedciated to the ammonia industry, has several news articles including green ammonia and plant decarbonization

A particular article that may be of interest is this one;
https://ammoniaindustry.com/ammonia-production-causes-1-percent-of-total-global-ghg-emissions/

To keep this post a liitle more on topic this link may also be of interest;
https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/
and although a little old, dated 2012, there is this PDF ;
https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/archive/hub/publications/54126/ccs-regulatory-review-trinidad-tobago.pdf

In addition to that publication there are is a lot more reading available ;)

OLADAPO007, thanks for confirming, and answering the two questions already :)
Thought I may have misread or misunderstood something

Massy I believe are only involved in gas and gas products, not the production of ammonia, please see links below;

www.energy.gov.tt/our-business/lng-petrochemicals/petrochemicals/ammonia/

http://massygasproducts.com/tt/

I guess the questions are;
How many ammonia producing plants are Massy taking CO2 from?
If not all 11 plants, how many more would it be feasible to adapt in order to be able to take that CO2 in addition?

I'll need to reread the 2nd link but Yara and Savonetta are both mentioned.

A google of 'Savonetta Trinidad and Tobago CO2 recovery' brings up a number of results, some based around CERM, which I am sure have been posted here previously.

Micktrick, I believe that PRD has a monopoly on CO2 from the ammonia plants, so if BPC 'want to have a go' they'll have to do a deal with PRD anyway for access to it.

So just how big was the positive news out of T&T?
We were told that we would be informed of our partners in Ireland last November, why hasn't this happened yet?
Why can't CCS be used in existing mature fields around Ireland and not just the areas that Predator own?
If the FSRU goes ahead, do we even need to drill?
What infrastructure does Ireland have to capture CO2?
What other negotiations could be going on to justify releasing this RNS?
What, within the RNS, could constitute 'inside information'?

OK, fair enough if you have additional information, it was only a thought that FS were perhaps promoting and helping the company behind the scenes.