Member Info for Kasjnaton

Hi GRH, having no reason to doubt you with regards to the date on which you said MOU3 pad construction started. So, by combining that date along with the timeframes for completing MOU1 then the spud date for MOU3 could be sometime around the 4th May.
With a two to three week timeframe for competing the drill I can understand why you are looking forward to your birthday.

Whilst it was quiet on the boards I did a bit more digging and found these two PDFs on clay and the issues it can cause which might prove of interest, although they cover slightly different sceanrios there is quite a bit of read across:

This PDF examines borehole instability in shale formations and goes into quite a bit of detail on the different clay types:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjRhIWgqe79AhVCnVwKHST9CaUQFnoECA0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Faura.abdn.ac.uk%2Fbitstream%2F2164%2F17786%2F1%2FHalim_etal_Minimizing_formation_damage_VOR.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0biMEwXrrofU2G3R7cRvIJ

This PDF is concerned with the different mechanisms of formation damage, one of which is clay swelling:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjRhIWgqe79AhVCnVwKHST9CaUQFnoECA0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Faura.abdn.ac.uk%2Fbitstream%2F2164%2F17786%2F1%2FHalim_etal_Minimizing_formation_damage_VOR.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0biMEwXrrofU2G3R7cRvIJ

I don't think that these have been posted on here previously but my apologies if they have.

Only risky and a gamble if you have over invested and not done much or any research.
Risks associated with it yes but not the same thing.

Highlandmatt/Porters, the next question then is why is Lonny so confident in MOU1 flowing commercially?
I would say you only have to look at the permeability, porosity and charge at the drill location.

Just came across this PDF titled; "Drilling a Downdip Location: Effect on Updip and Downdip Resource Estimates and Commercial Chance", which might be of interest, link below:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjutq7f_5n9AhXXRkEAHXN8AOsQFnoECA0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.searchanddiscovery.com%2Fdocuments%2F2017%2F42102schneider%2Fndx_schneider.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1gebwJ8RsH1452w3dUdTuz

Just unblocked Nigel the bloody goblin to see what he had written, only to discover it was a waste of my time and energy.

The MC posts valued each BCF at 1.51 pence per share, and from that the following was calculated:
Low estimate discovery: £4.21 per share

Best estimate discovery: £12.37 per share

High estimate discovery: £27.52 per share

There were of course certain assumptions and caveats applied to those values that were all highlighted in part 2, so surely a better course of discussion would be to say why these values are in error, either to the positive or negative, along with proof of workings so it can all be checked.

Afterall in trying to understand the potential reward and what the risks are is the only way to generate a risk/reward ratio.

Lastly GRH has mentioned he created a timeline with lots of arrows which I think are of varying degrees of size depending on their impact/importance, I would not be surprised if the arrows would now be reclassified as spears...

Hi Olderandwiser

GRH's MC post can be found by looking back to through his posting history, it was posted on the 20 March 2021 @12:37.
It was in two parts, the The full title of the first part being:
Where is Michael Caine when you need him?...PART ONE

A link to the original post is provided below:
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/grh.../?page=62

GRH posted it again on the 17th Jan 2022 @13:32, this was when LSE historical posting search facility went offline, a link to that is below:
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/grh.../?page=28

I'm providing both links as you can then go back and have a look at the discussoins that were raised on those occaisions.

Hope the above helps.

Lastly, I would suggest reading as many of GRH's historical posts as possible, there is a lot of useful information provided within them.

KeithOz has already mentioned this in an earlier post, the chances of a raise are minimal, MOU1 will flow commercially and PG will forward sell a quantity of gas if needed to fund further works including the completion and testing of MOU2.
As for side tracking, how will that help? They still need to get through the 200 metres of geology that is causing the current problems.

@Keith, thanks for the reply.

Hi KeithOz, thanks for the info earlier, a question though:

Is there the possibility that a suitable additive could be identified which when added to the MOU2 drilling mud/fluid would stop the reaction with the potassium and allow drilling to continue withouut having to source a new fluid, reducing both time and cost?

Jonmo91, timelines for first gas sales and drilling MOU3 & 4/NE are given within the presentation where it clearly states that these activities will be happening around the same time.

I suspect that the order of play will remain the same even if their dates have been moved out a little, as currently it looks like the delay is about 4 months for those activities that are dependent upon the drilling of MOU-2 being completed.

Original date of completion on the projected timeline for MOU-2 drill was mid-November last year, provided the 6 week timeframe given in the Sunday roast is adhered to it is now looking like the middle of March.

TT-T, I think this was asked by some investors after the presentation in September last year, can't remember details of any dates but PG does know which 25% he intends to relinquish.

Lochnez, completely agree, comparisons with Leviathian have been made previously but great does not necessarily apply to just volumes of gas, this discovery is also on shore and close to infrastructure which reduces the cost of field development.

There are some significant discoveries where Geography and Politics played their part in keeping them 'stranded'.

I apologise to GRH if I am putting words into his mouth but I think he means great from a PI, National, and International perspective, and for that we have to thank PG and LB for keeping PRD debt free, and working in the best interests of all parties.

Time is an important aspect and is one that nothing has been priced in for Ireland, the other is that the amount awarded is also unknown, which was the point of the post, i.e. to show that CharlotteB's statement that the share price would collapse if none of the projects in Ireland were to go ahead is patently false.

Common sense dictates that payment will be frozen until the drill starts turning again, there may be some agreement between PRD and Star Valley of costs being transferred to MOU3 but that would just be speculation.

So you are guessing about something that could happen, i.e. MOU2 location being moved due to results from MOU1? ok, I suggest any decisions around MOU2 will only be decided after results come back from Aberdeen.

As for the timline moving to the right, that is plain for anyone to see, the presentation back in September suggested that the CNG site construction and first gasl sales would start in the 2nd quarter 2023, not impossible to meet these timelines but will prove challenging.

CharlotteB, you have obviously ignored the point that has been raised in the past and I raised again in my last post.
If Minister Ryan decides not to grant successor authorisation licences to then legal action will be taken.

As stated previously precedent has already been set with Rock Hopper being awarded 190 million Euros due to the Italian government refusing them permission to drill.

Further I suggest that neither Ireland or T&T is priced in at the moment, (I see Jonmo91 has already posted this).

Star Valley will only start charging PRD when the drill bit starts turning again.
Why would it be anything else? If they want to start charging for the rig then Paul can quite easily say, "ok, dismantle and put back into storage then." In this condition how much do you think can be charged for the rig whilst in storage? I'll give you a clue, it's somewhere between nothing and not a lot.

And who benefits from the dismantling and reassembly of the rig? Do you want another clue to help work that one out?

Hi Caterham7
When holding shares in SOU I did some research on Hyperspectral imaging, one item I found was a PDF created by Alumni oil, a wholly owned subsidary of Africa New Energies Limited, section 5.2, starting on Page 31, gives a good overview of RSDD-H, with a success rate of 62% to 80% as quoted on page 32, see the link below :
https://www.ane.na/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/technical-advisory-committee.pdf

A lot of the other information I came across is now no longer available as the associated links appear to be dead. However, I am sure that there was another paper that I came across which also quoted an 80% success rate when using hyperspectral imaging.

Some links that are still live and maybe of interest are included below:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281709163_Study_on_oil-gas_reservoir_detecting_methods_using_hyperspectral_remote_sensing

https://patents.google.com/patent/RU2544309C2/en

https://www.imveurope.com/news/scientists-develop-low-cost-hyperspectral-imager-natural-gas-detection

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Bihong-Fu/publication/286768058_Mapping_hydrocarbon_seepage-induced_anomalies_in_the_arid_region_west_China_using_multispectral_remote_sensing/links/5df18965a6fdcc28371a30eb/Mapping-hydrocarbon-seepage-induced-anomalies-in-the-arid-region-west-China-using-multispectral-remote-sensing.pdf

Lonny bought a fair number of shares at a fraction under 9p as per the RNS released on 1st April which states:

"As announced on 17 March 2022, Lonny Baumgardner, Chief Operating Officer, agreed to subscribe for 555,600 new ordinary shares, representing a subscription of £50,000 (the "Director Subscription"). "

Footandmouth, no problem at all to post the link.
I think it is best veiwed there, rather than posting piecemeal here, as it can then be read in its original unadulterated context.

MEM, anybody who makes a public post will develop a reputation based upon those posts, if, of course, that is all that is known about them, some of the poeple who post here have not done anything to enhance their reputation.
The information that GRH has provided and his tolerance of certain intellectual dwarves has done nothing to not only cement his reputation as a thoroughly honest and decent individual but to enhance that reputation.

Some people asking that he should return, I can understand fully why he refuses to, insults and attacks on his family, information provided free of charge that has taken time and energy for him post here pushed down the pages by complete and totally inane drivel.

As for the drill of MOU-2, whatever anybody thinks, after many delays, we are fast approaching its much anticipated spud, as well as its testing alongside of MOU-1.

As we get closer to the date schedules will be firmed up, even CharlotteB has to admit this with the dates she has provided:
Late 2021/Early 2022, September/October, 1st 2 weeks of December, now middle of December.

The timeframes between these dates becoming shorter and shorter, the closeer we get the more accurate these dates will be.
There are of course, as mentioned by Chiselhurst, things that are outside of PG's and LB's control but drilling will be starting very soon.

Hi FORD707
I beleive that the post you are referring to was originally on the iii board and then copied by nearlycertain to the A D V F N board.
I can copy and paste to here but due to character limits it will cover four posts, easiest thing is to click on the link below, it is the 16th post down on the page, so you'll have to scroll a liitle bit:

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/gulf-keystone-GKP/share-chat?page=5661&xref=chatnav_i_6_t

There are two additional aspects to consider as well the price per share, one is timeframe, the other is that we will soon see the results from two wells being tested instead of just one, which would have been the case had MOU-1 been tested sometime ago.
The resullt is that from positive well tests cause, in a very short time frame, the share price to be multiples of what it currently is.
As a comparison when the share price was 1.5p, back in March 2020 it took almost a year to reach 15p, in that time frame there were many months that allowed for investing elsewhere, if someone choose to do so, that opportunity does not exist now.

Hi battle99
As no one has replied back to you I thought I would, I am sure that corrections will be made by other posters if anything I post below is not correct:

The first thing I would suggest is to have a read of the two PDFs linked below:

Novum reoprt focus on Morocco - 7th March 2022:
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/03/Predator-Oil-Gas-Corporate-update-7-March-2022-1.pdf

SLR consulting CPR appraising project in Morocco - January 2022:
www.predatoroilandgas.com/cpr2022

It should be noted from the CPR that
The 25% chance of proceeding to development reflects the remaining production, transport, legal, contractual and environmental issues relating to a large-scale gas to power project. The chance of commerciality for a pilot CNG development supplying lower volumes of gas to industrial markets is likely to be considerably higher. The Guercif Prospect can be defined under the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) as Marginal Contingent Resources with Development Pending.

This is not the same as geological chance of succes, which is the infromation that you are know doubt seeking, and PRD's project is to supply businesses with CNG, therefore negating many of the concerns related to a large-scale gas to power project.

MOU-2 is considered to be an appraisal well, and a certain member of PRD management with whom I had a discussion on this subject (this was after the September presentation), stated that there is a chance of no or non-commercial hydrocarbons at MOU-2 but this outcome is considered to be extremely low.
The biggest risk to MOU-2 is considered to be operational risk.
To mitigate operational risk Paul and Lonny have learnt a lot from MOU-1 and applied this knowledge to the design of the well that will be drilled at MOU-2.
I have seen 85% chance of success mentioned but please note that this is an independant view and not a view necessarily held by PRD, with the biggest risk being operational risk.

Hope the above is of value

MEM, I am agree with your post, except of course for the RNS within the next 6 trading sessions, only as your timing has been out previously :-)

Jimmy23, I think it safe to say that you will only expect to see the results of hydrocarbon activity where there is good geological reservoir conditions, i.e. permeability and porosity.
As for depth of reservoir, no it does not provide that information.
As for seismic, that does not provide indications of permeability or porosity either, the output from analysing the seismic identifies potential locations where hydrocarbons might be.

GRH's GKP post quite clearly states that a combination of the two is required for optimising drill locations.

Nametrade, from my perspective it means that GRH, as well as Lonny have both put a sizeable sum of their own money into PRD.