Member Info for Kando

Next stop $2300

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F4qzPbcFiA

Is the "gap" in the room with us right now?

Might be the bear flag on gold on the hourly, and the big hanging man candlestick it posted on the weekly last week. Silver chart isn't looking all that robust either. I think generally the marketing is waiting for the other shoe to drop. You don't hit 65 on the vix and then brush it off in a week, there's usually some further volatility to follow.

"Thanks Gnome, about a Kim Beazley’s pronouncements, do you think this is good or bad for Cey share price? All best"

It could be quite bullish if Centamin shift away from their gold mining operations in the Egyptian desert and pivot into making nuclear submarines for the Australian navy.

"mrtibbles Posts: 15,288 Price: 119.30 No Opinion

RE: US marketsToday 11:16

Some of us knew that it was just a share churning , that's why we didn't sell and some even bought bought more at a discount price!"

This comment will not age well.

I suspect the time to buy back in will be sooner than late Autumn. The volatility is about to get quite intense. I'm not convinced that markets won't be back at ATHs by late Autumn and it'll be time to sell again.

I think that was probably a wise move Goldinvestor. There will be time again soon to buy the dip, but not yet.

No hard feelings. Good luck all.

I would hope we're looking at the same gold price. Notice the quotation marks, it's a comment by Goldinvestor7 last week.

"Kando Posts: 1,014 Price: 125.30

RE: US Data2 Aug 2024 13:37

Miners are about to get crushed in this market selloff. There's no safety play here until the market stabilizes.

===

Goldinvestor7 Posts: 80 Price: 125.10

RE: US Data2 Aug 2024 13:40

That’s the most ludicrous commentary

Gold miners will benefit from a market crash as gold goes up in that scenario

Gold another 1.5% up today

I know where I’d rather have my money in this turbulence!"

Changed your tune, no?

Miners are about to get crushed in this market selloff. There's no safety play here until the market stabilizes.

Yeah, I guess so. Oversold is just not a word I'd use for this stock. Still up 40% in 4 months. Consolidation and retracements are a thing.

"VEry oversold at the moment."

On what metric?

Down only 7% on 52 week highs.

A 52.9 read on the daily RSI.

"So what you guys need to get your head round is gold is very cheap and still has a way to run given all the factors in play and that’s before the dollar weakens and interest rates fall."

That's not incompatible with an opinion that by mid-August, gold could retest the lows of its channel at ~2300 and that miners will be dragged down with it.

I think you want to argue with everyone, but you're not quite sure what you're arguing about. I believe Tornadotony is about as bullish on Gold as myself, and about as bullish, overall, as you are. You just don't want to admit the possibility that things don't always go up in straight lines; they consolidate, and retrace. That's all. Try to relax.

I never said anything like that.

Yes, we clearly don't understand that. But that's fine. I personally don't believe that the mutli-generational problem of US debt, and Trump's slightly diminishing chance of re-election in November are so acute as to prevent Gold from pulling back over the next month. Those are long term biases to the gold price, but don't, in my opinion, do much to affect the price movements of gold in a near term market sell off. You do you.

Nah, I would argue Tony is right. It's not unlikely that Gold will retest ~2305 in the next fortnight or so as the indexes resume their selloff. Gold's price action is telling that story. The indexes are telling that story. Miners will be punished by that fall in gold, and their fall will be amplified by the broader sell off across equities. Notwithstanding the bear flag that Centamin has already formed, this could drop as low as the 90s, just based on a gold pullback and market selloff.

It's okay to bullish here on gold overall on longer timeframes, but position for bearish pullbacks in the short term. It doesn't mean he's talking his book. It's not a team sport, it's just talk.

And right on cue, the directors start buying.

Looked and sounded just like this on IDS just before the Kretinsky bid. SP had just broken a key 4 year old support on technicals, flushed out the stop losses, then cue leaked news of a bid being prepared. Up 30% in an hour, up 60% in a month.

Suddenly a lot of very concerned people about a profitable company with solid FCF, a modest debt pile, 80% locked at low rates until 2028-2031. The 20% that will need fixing next year isn't an existential issue. The bond market doesn't care, and neither should you. That market still sees MCG as a safe bet. This is just a dump and pump in progress.

Dropping the dividend and buying a profitable business with it is what they ought to be doing. The easiest way to deal with debt is to increase one's income. Through that lens there is little wrong with that acquisition.

The furore caused by the recent broker's note seems rather overblown to me. 80% of the debt is fixed till 28/31, a resolution for the 20% will not be overly difficult for a business with growing revenues, recovering margins and healthy underlying profitability and FCF. Exceptional fuel and wage cost inflation is now consigned to last year's books, and things have already begun to normalize this year. Plenty of companies have terrifying debt burdens that they will likely ultimately succumb to, but this isn't one of them. Ocado (with no disrespect to holders of that) has more debt, less revenue, an expanding operating loss at half a billion a year, and is still holding onto a 2.8bn mcap, 10 fold that of Mobico. On paper, Mobico is a far better business. This is one of the market's bargains this week. An exceptional takeover tarket.