Member Info for JustThinkItThru

Investing in Angle in July 2020 and following the company’s progress since then has been for me a valuable lesson.

Let it be known that I invested a modest 3k in July 2020, kept faith with the company until the FDA approval milestone, bagged 3k profit and then gave it all back, more or less, as the shares sunk from my 56p entry price over the last 4 years to the current dismal 7p. A small wager and a disappointing loss indeed – I place strict limits on highly speculative shares.

I understand a development stage medical technology company needs continual investor support over many years to become a commercial success. It appears Angle has clocked 10 years on its journey to date, has raised £150m capital with £18m remaining.

It is also clear from the below synopsis, to me at least, that we face many more years to commercial viability.

Therefore, it is understandable that the founder / CEO will do all he can to string investors along.

By all accounts he has done a good job in this regard although, with the latest results, I sense he is running out of rope.

Whilst company management like to imply that they are just two years away from commercial viability, current realities and recent history suggest otherwise.

Thus the key question for investors is are they in a mood to finance a further 5 to 6 plus years of this journey?

What do I mean by recent history?

Going back through the company reports and presentations, it seems Angle took several wrong turns and/or was forced to abandon things for lack of funding, the Canadian test laboratory and assay development being the most prominent.

What is disconcerting for shareholders is the lack of follow up from company management. I list the key items below:-

Post FDA opportunities (characterized as: “Enhanced engagement post FDA with discussions initiated with two medtech companies, more than twenty biopharma companies and one Government body”) – a total of 23 potential clients evaporate without a single contract signed and no explanation forthcoming for such an astounding lack of commercial interest.

Solaris Health clinical validity study (results expected late 2023) – prostate cancer is one of Angle’s primary target markets but no update for 9 months from management.

Breast cancer – despite Parsortix being FDA approved for breast cancer sampling and despite the compelling use case there has been no progress towards commercialization and no explanation from management.

Ovarian cancer – if breast cancer use case is clearly NOT compelling why should ovarian cancer use case be?

Collaboration with Abbott laboratories for HER2 in breast cancer - evaporated with no explanation from management.

Collaboration with Qiagen for ARV7 in prostate cancer - evaporated with no explanation from management.

INFORM, EMBER2 and DOMINO clinical studies pivotal to Angle’s commercialization strategy “to generate meaningful clinical data by end of 2023”. No meanin

Try convincing a drug company that it should run a liquid biopsy half way through the highly profitable treatment to determine if it should be cancelled!

Conclusions:

Angle will need to survive the next 7-10 years to become a commercially viable competitor in the liquid biopsy market. As yet none (except research) of the above use cases have advanced to the point where they start to become “recommended course of treatment”, a precursor to their widespread adoption.

That leaves the use of Parsortix by drug research companies such as Astra Zenica, but here Angle will need to prove it has either efficacy or cost advantages over its stronger well established competitors to gain traction beyond the token contracts signed to date.

This is going to require new capital, a lot of new capital

I am trying to take stock of where we are with Angle and what the outlook is. So, let’s give it a go.

Six Promising Use Cases (listed in order of commercial potential)

 Liquid biopsy tests are performed to screen patients, to detect the presence of cancer as a first step.

This is the holy grail because of the potential number of tests per annum per head of population.

Extensive and costly research required to establish this as a reliable screening method for each and every type of cancer.

 Liquid biopsy test performed on confirmed cancer patients in lieu of a tissue biopsy.

 Liquid biopsy test performed as an adjunct test in the diagnosis / prognosis of cancer to determine the appropriate course of treatment.

 Liquid biopsy test performed repeatedly during the course of treatment to monitor treatment efficacy and guide treatment strategy,

 Liquid biopsy test performed repeatedly post-treatment to detect potential relapse.

 Liquid biopsy tests used in cancer research to develop new treatments more effectively.

This is the sole use case that is in effective commercial application currently.

 The field of liquid biopsy where blood samples are used to provide multiple analytes (CTC’s, ctDNA, ct RNA, etc) which when subjected to DNA/RNA seq, FISH, etc analysis provide enormous potential for cancer detection, diagnosis, prognosis and treatment superior to existing methods.

 In each case, be it ctDNA or CTC’s, prior research points to the potential for liquid biopsy, nevertheless a lot more research will need to be undertaken in the coming decade to establish these new methods as part of the “recommended course of treatment” for each of the various forms of cancer. Yes, we’ll need a decade.

 Angle’s Parsortix unit is one among many contenders for filtering and analysing the blood samples. The field includes Roche, Qiagen, Menarini Group (Cellsearch), Illumina to name a few. Angle’s competitors are well established, well financed and further advanced in the race to commercialize their methods as evidenced by completed and on-going clinical trials using their systems / methods. Cellsearch has been FDA approved and in commercial operation since 2013!

 Each contender claims a particular advantage to their methodology, for Parsortix filtration it is the isolation of wholly intact CTC’s without the use of epitome markers. For Cellsearch it is the only FDA approved unit to enumerate the CTC’s in a blood sample. However, each contender will need to prove the superiority of their method with extensive clinical trials.

 Finally, from my own experience working for a proton cancer therapy centre in Prague, it takes a lot of time and promotional activity (money) to overcome structural résistance within the medical profession. Try convincing a surgeon that his surgical procedures are no longer necessary because they can be replaced with a simple dirt cheap blood test

You suggest "Angle are currently targeting the Companies in the World that carry out CANCER RESEARCH as this in itself is a massive market potentially in the hundreds of millions of dollars! "

That's a wild exageration, on a par with AN!

Do you have any idea of the number of people undergoing clinical trials for cancer. Even if you were to assume four samples filtrated per person per trial you are talking insufficient revenues to make Angle viable. What did you think Angle would be charging the researchers per filtration?

If you insist on "rampant" exageration do not sign off IMHO - there's nothing "Humble" about your opinions

Angle Plc - Sept 2022 Quote:

"Together with MidLantic Urology, ANGLE will initiate clinical studies aimed at investigating the use of the Parsortix® system for the detection of prostate cancer ….. The design of the first study to be conducted with MidLantic Urology, expected to be initiated in Q3 2022, ….. Blood samples collected by MidLantic Urology will be shipped to ANGLE's United States clinical laboratory for processing by the Parsortix system to harvest and analyse CTCs and associated immune cells. "

"ANGLE expects headline results from the first study of 100 men in 2023."

"The Solaris Health network encompasses more than 500 clinical urology providers across 179 locations and nine States with more than 729,000 unique patients annually."

I would consider this to be quite an important potential route to what is a very large market.

So why have we received no update from Angle, we were informed to expect headline results in 2023!

I did some digging myself and drew a blank.

The American Urological Association (AUA) does not mention it nor liquid biopsy in its annual resume (https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/aua-2023/aua-2023-prostate-cancer/144046-aua-2023-updates-on-clinical-trials-in-prostate-cancer.html) and MidLantic (https://midlanticurology.com/clinical-research/) make no mention of it either!

The following paper takes a wide-angle look at the potential and challenges for liquid biopsy – the key take-away:

Liquid biopsy: from concept to clinical application (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-48501-x)

“More interventional clinical trials are urgently needed to widely implement liquid biopsy in clinical practice......... Of particular significance, the multi-center standardization of pre-analytical and analytical methods is imperative before liquid biopsy can be consistently used in clinical settings. …….. the European Liquid Biopsy Society in the EU, or the BLOODPAC in the U.S.A. continue to lead significant programs to complete this mission and develop and validate a wide range of standard operating procedures”.

Conclusion: (i) Angle treats its shareholders like muppets, (ii) if the jam ever arrives it will only do so many years hence which means you'll need a lot more cash to keep this horse in the race.

Since July 2018 the installed base has risen from 200 to 290 units by June 2023, that is an average of 18 each year.

Over this 5 year period product revenues were £3.5m so of 39k per unit (a maximum as it assumes none of the product revenues relate to the 200 unit installed base at the start of the period).

In 2022, 270 installed units generated unit service revenue of £1700, a minimum as we can assume that not all of the units were in full use.

None of these observations gives confidence that Angle will reach £6m revenues this year and more importantly that a cash raise in 2024 can be deferred.

On the other hand, HER2 screening is growing in importance and being a screening procedure, woud include more than ~70% of all patients. If the Parsortix filtration for HER2 analysis became the recommended medical procedure then we've crossed the finishing line.

However, it takes 2-4 years for a viable, proven procedure to become recommended best practice.

The race continues.

As I see it, I am a speculator in Angle, I own 4'000 shares because I limit my speculative bets (mostly).

At present there are insufficient grounds for "investing", again as I see it.

Apart from a FDA / EU approved product that clearly works, there is little else to underwrite an investment decision.

The 200+ units in full (or partial) use by research organisations do not support a business case. At least none has been put forward by the company.

So, all one has to go on are the product milestones, clinical study results, the signing of initial "Trial" clients, and prospective events. It is akin to betting on the horse one fence at a time as it navigates the racecourse. There has been progress and many of you have banked handsome gains / losses as each fence has been cleared whereupon the uncertainty of the next fence comes into view, and so on. Also the jockey Newland / Nero has come in for a lot of critism for his poor horsemanship making the next fence all the more uncertain.

As yet, we have no business case to go on.

Having a product and knowing the size of the market and the turnover of your "trial" clients does not constitute a business case. This explains why Newland is stringing (would be) investors along, he needs a lot more time to build a business case. We were encouraged to believe there may be one for using Parsortix to monitor the progress of breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy.

Investors, be they us, an institution or an entity looking to acquire Angle need to a business case to put a value on the company. The recent price gyrations (160p down to 10p) just confirms that nobody can estimate the value of the company presently. At the current market cap Abbott Laboratories, Qiagen, Illumina, or any of the big boys could buy Angle out of petty cash - so why don't they?

So to return to my analogy - Angle is just a horse with a one legged jockey and nobody knows where the finishing line is but that doesn't stop us from betting on each and every upcoming fence, or speculating on the potential stud fees if we win the grand national some day!

So all the pumpers and dumpers, the dreamers and the naysayers, on-lookers and comentators on this board are perfectly rational when they post their remarks - it is just a punt on the next fence, some wish to raise our confidence ther wish to lower it and other still are hoping to eventually find out what race we are in and if we have back the right horse for said race.

Now I did some digging into breast cancer in the U.S. (links below)

In a nutshell, it appears to me that when you consider the number of patients receiving chemotherapy (excl. adjunct chemotherapy), the main cohort being those with stage III / IV cancers, the addressable market for Parsortix is too small to build a viable business case.

Just a recap from the prior post....

Parsortix is a diagnostic device which CANNOT be used for diagnosis !

Taken from Angle's website:

Parsortix®PC1 system

The Parsortix®PC1 system is cleared by the FDA only when used with the MBC-01 Metastatic Breast Cancer Kit and ICT-01 Instrument Control Test kit in compliance with the approved instructions for use.

Product Intended use:

The Parsortix PC1 system is an in vitro diagnostic device intended to enrich circulating tumor cells (CTCs) from peripheral blood collected in K2EDTA tubes from patients diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer. The system employs a microfluidic chamber (a Parsortix cell separation cassette) to capture cells of a certain size and deformability from the population of cells present in blood. The cells retained in the cassette are harvested by the Parsortix PC1 system for use in subsequent downstream assays. The end user is responsible for the validation of any downstream assay.

The standalone device, as indicated, does not identify, enumerate or characterize CTCs and cannot be used to make any diagnostic/prognostic claims for CTCs, including monitoring indications or as an aid in any disease management and/or treatment decisions.

Ok, so if I read correctly...Parsortix cannot be used as an aid in any desease management and/or treatment decisions.

So, apart from research use cases (which will never prove commercially viable IMO), what exactly can it be used for ?

Gentlemen,

I seem to remember way back in 2020/21 that someone posted a link to a Angle financial forecast made by Jeffries.

Anyone aware of the post and capable of reviving the link..... please.

I was fortunate in my timing and made £3030 on Angle when it obtained FDA approval. I held onto 3'000 shares and have lost all my gains as the price collapsed from 160p to today's 10p or less. So, I've been stung like most investors here.

I did my research on liquid biopsy and the great potential it represented and so when I took a stake in Angle I assumed that we were targeting an FDA decision to approve Parsortix for cancer screening - a large and lucrative addressable market. It was only a weeks after the FDA approval and sitting on a nice profit that I read the FDA details to find that Parsortix is NOT approved as a screening device, merely a filtration device and then only for breast cancer samples.

Some of you gents may have a clearer view of how A.N was positioning the product in the run up to the FDA approval (i.e as a filtration unit or as a screening unit - for all cancers or for breast cancer alone). In any case, A.N was intentionally misleading when he referred to the market potential of Parsortix following the FDA approval. The last two years have proven such. Not a single medical authority or medical services business has purchased a Parsortix unit and put it into daily operation. Imagine A.N forecasting that two years ago!

I fear Angle will be over taken by developments of the leaders in liquid biopsy such that the Parsortix "use case" will lose commercial value.

As regards the back and forth between my colleagues on this board re what the realistic prospects are for Angle, it is worth pointing out to the optimists amoung you that we have had lots of baloons floated along the way only to be pricked by reality. Remember all those high potential buy out candidates (Abbott laboratories), a strong pipeline of pharma companies waiting to put Parsortix to use, etc. Get real, if anyone was interested in this filtration units they could buy the company for a song.

For me, the only reason I have left my now much deminished £400 investment in Angle is the small possibility that the venture with Solaris comes to something, anything, over even half of nothing!!

were As I pointed out in previous posts, the FDA approval

On this occasion Management have given us lots of numbers. However, they deftly avoided giving us a clear picture on which to judge the future prospects of the company. We have received no revenue or operating income guidance just "political" and vague statement about the potential to reach cash break-even at some future date.

I keep asking myself why the sales performance in Europe (where we launched back in 2018 I believe) is so miserable.

The potential for an oral ID suppliment is equivalent on both sides of the pond. Any investor who ignores this glaringly poor performance in Europe is foolish. Circa a quarter of Europe's population are over 60 = 90+ million potential clients and so far next to none have taken to our remedy!

My conclusion is that sales will surely increase, as will cashflow and the company will eventually make it to break-even.

However, I firmly believe most investors will lose money from this point foward, institutional investors included.

Do your own research and keep asking questions.

Hello Moab,

I went away and did some research, then capped it off with the help of ChatGPT.

So, CTC's may be released to the bloodstream from a solid tumor well in advance of metastatis. Current research believes that the CTC's are the principal agents of metastatis. Many CTC's are released into the bloodstream often in clusters but the majority are killed off by the immune system.

Conclusion: Parsortix could be used as a cancer screening device but is probably a less effective test than targeting circulating tumor DNA particles.

The real money in the liquid biopsy market goes to the company that is FDA approved to answer the primary diagnostic challenge - “Does the patient have cancer?”. It explains the market value of companies like Illumina($26b) and Natera($6b); Angle has a market value of £35m.

A lot less but nonetheless sufficient amount of money in the liquid biopsy market goes to the company that is FDA approved to diagnose what character of cancer the patient has. This is where Angle’s Parsortix coupled with one of several tests on the extracted CTC’s has a role to play. For now Parsortix is only FDA approved for breast cancers. Prostate cancers would be a larger market which Angle hopes to address with its partnership in the U.S with Solaris Health.

So anytime I hear Newland refer to the liquid biopsy market I flinch knowing that the Parsortix addressable market is a minor slice of the whole.

What investors need to understand is the following:-

How many women are diagnosed with breast cancer annually in the U.S, in the U.K, and how many go on to have a CTC diagnostic test. How many test has Parsortix performed in the last year, how many were targeted, why the miserable up take, what is the strategy to have Parsortix adopted by medical practitioners in the U.S and U.K.

How long will it take to obtain FDA approval for prostate CTC extraction?

Why does Angle not seek approval for Parsortix as a primary diagnostic (cancer screening) test?

This last qestion is the most telling.

The risk here is that the one of the major players working on cancer screening (Illumina) will devise a screen which is sufficiently accurate to diagnose the cancer such that the need for CTC extraction and testing is reduced to less than 20% of positive cases, thus shrinking further the minor market slice addressed by Parsortix.

If anyone has any further questions to put to Angle's IR dept let's hear them.

I've notices comments on the NHS / Grail trial.

The BBC article states "The liquid biopsy detects tiny fragments of tumour DNA in the bloodstream and alerts doctors as to whether a cancer signal has been detected and predicts where in the body that signal may have originated. If early results are successful, a pilot screening programme involving one million patients over two years is scheduled to begin next summer."

Well, this goes back to what I posted previously, namely that the FDA approval of Parsortix precludes its use as a screening tool. So the NHS cannot use Parsortix for its screening trials. Nero was somewhat obtuse on this matter in his earlier announcements after the FDA approval. More recently he has been a little more clear on the matter.

When I read thru the FDA approval in detail to discover that Parsortix is not approved for screening I made a mental note to drop the value of the company substantially.

In 2018, was highly profitable (Net margin 24%) and efficient (ROIC 28%): Earnings per share were 59p
Four years later having sunk $400 mil. to acquire Sentry, Net margins are down to 6%, ROIC has dropped to 4% and as yet no increase in operating cashflow.
So either the original business has imploded or the acqured business is a dog. At an absolute minimum one would expect a $400m investment to yield a possitive cashflow, but not in this case - at least not yet.

Have Management given us any reason for confidence in the future outlook - Nope, zilch!
However the company's analysts are forecasting earnings per share of 23p (2023), 24p (2024) and 32p (2025).
So if the forecasts hold true then by June 2025 Craneware earnings will still be 46% BELOW THE LEVEL IN 2018.

Now, in 2018 Craneware had an Enterprise value of $355 mil. when the company was way more valuable than today. So, I reckon the current enterprise value of $474 has a long way to fall before the serious money starts to take an interest in this lady.

I would not be surprised to see the share price settle down at 800p (back where it was in 2016).

Everywhere I read namely, U.S market commentary, recruitment company trading updates / annual reports etc., I hear of a tight labour market and wage inflation.
Now hat has to be a strong tailwind for this company. So, I would expect sales to be up on prior periods and the share price to follow suit. DYOR.

BOJO my thoughts......

All along I (mis)understod that the use of Parsortix would forego the need for invasive biopsy procedures in the case of suspected breast or prostrate cancer. Since the biopsy is deemed necessary to confirm the patient has cancer and Parsortix cannot be used until such is confirmed, it follows that Parsortix cannot surplant the biopsy process.
What a bloody shame!

While I would prefer to invest in a company with less debt, iEnergizer is still a sound investment at today’s price.

1. The company is a cash cow.
2. It consistently produces returns on invested capital close to 30% (last 3 years) and free cash flow exceeds profits year in year out.
3. It has been producing on average 38m free cash flow each year over the past decade.
4. Outstanding debt to operating cash flow is a very reasonable 1,4x, most banks will lend this company up to 3,5x without covenants.
5. iEnergizer pays LIBOR plus 3.75% interest on its loans while it generates 30% + returns on that capital invested.
6. Show me another U.K listed “Cash cow” with 40% ROIC (2022) and valued at 9.4x cash flow!!
7. There is a reason why it is the only company to show up on Stockopedia’s Zulu principle screens.

So,……

IMO if you’re invested, sit tight, collect your 7% dividends each year and await the big one several years hence
– or -
Hope another ATOS comes along and values the company at 18x cash flow.

You should not be overly concerned about the 143m borrowed in 2021 to pay a bumper dividend.
The company did the same thing back in 2012 when it borrowed 134m in part to finance large dividend payouts.
In the following years it paid down that loan with ample cash flows.
Syntel was a similar case, Indian Co. Indian majority ownership, providing similar services principally to the U.S. It borrowed heavily to pay a bumper dividend. About a year afterwards in 2017 Atos Origin acquired the outfit at a premium. They obviously valued the prospective cash flows highly.