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200 pods is a long time away if it ever gets there, and at a cost of 1.5M USD per pod thats a whopping 300M USD. How do they expect to fund it if each pod is only producing 50mcfd? I cant believe they would actually be happy with those ridiculous figures. Each of these wells need to be hitting a minimum stable flow rate of about 140mcfd to supply 2MW imo. If 50mcfd is the ballpark figure they're happy with then they need to spend another 6M USD on 4 more pods to get 2MW. That would be a total of 9M USD (excluding seismic and core-hole drilling) for 6 Pods to bring in approx 1.5 - 2M USD per year. The life span on these wells would need to exceed 5 years to pay for themselves let alone wages and other operations. 5 years is a bit of a stretch for an average CBM well, tho there wells that can go 15yr.
Like yourself I hope my figures are closer to the final stable flow rate than that of 50mcfpd.
Chukkers, he means each pod as he referred to my post of 100mcfpd from each pod.
Even so, lets say 32boepd, that wont cover salaries, never the expense of current operationd. Say depletion of the wells are depleted in a conservative 4 years. They will have accumulated about £2.5M between them, In 4 years!!?? It cost a hell of a lot more than that paltry return. They would be operating at a loss..
The Swan. ‘Setting expections to the market’? Lollol...Mike asked a question of what we are realistically expecting. I gave my answer, my expectation, a positive one! If 100mcfd from ‘2’ yes 2 dual lateral pods is going to keep the company happy then the company will be a laughing stock! Millions spent on seismic, core sampling, dual pod drilling and Bod wages that we paid for, for 16boepd? Pfff.
I think ill keep to my positive expectations, cos if i thought 16boepd was the forecast stable flow rate for 2 dual pods I would have been gone long long ago.
Hello CMikeB. I for one am not expecting 20mcfd increase per month, more like 20mcfd per week!! If 20mcfd per month is the case then I'll wait for RFP and financing RNS spike and bail out until Mamba or Boomslang exploration begins. What I’m expecting is an RNS tomorrow or early next week that they're hitting an absolute minimum 50mcfd per pod and potentially +100mcfd per pod (very possible). If not then these wells aren't preforming as well as others drilled in the past, and will say it all for me..
I'm probably setting myself up for some major disappointment here. Who knows? Only time will tell.
Thats my opinion, GL man.
True JTD, the SP is a sh*t show at the present time. I ask myself, should I leave and invest elsewhere?, then I catch a grip of myself! I want a return for my time & investment, and all the good news is just around the corner. Hmmm, Jeez how many times have I thought that too lol...
Heres hoping..
GL.
Whizzer, you're here a bit longer than myself - 3 years come Jan/Feb with the intentions of staying invested for 4 years or so, extended to 5 years due do RFP delay. Did’nt realise at the time how far we were away from production and the many hurdles we have faced so far. Having patience in the AIM markets is an art I realise I do not have...Aahhh 17p, what I would do for that SP year end... SELLLLL!!! Lol... well... top slice at least.
Maybe... just maybe it will be 3rd year lucky for me come Q1 2020 and everyone else involved.
We live in hope
GL
GL
Whizzer, you think 2 years is long here? What about 4.5 years for some investors reading the same old bull year after year. Heres some wording from 2015 RNS’s.
Tlou has made significant progress on its downstream plans for the development of gas-to-power projects in Botswana. During the quarter, Tlou has had discussions with a number of power development, investor and lender groups, mainly based in the United Kingdom and Europe where there is a strong appetite for African based energy projects.
There is considerable interest from these groups to partner with Tlou to initially develop a 10 MW gas-to-power project in Botswana and thereafter further expand to cover the chronic energy supply shortfalls being experienced in Botswana and throughout Southern Africa.
CHRONIC!!!! How many fecking times have I read that over the years and listened to Colm spouting it. Same old same old!!
Just wish da fk CC would shut up about the Chronic shortages before I die of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome waiting for tlou to actually give me a positive return for my investment here...
Rant over.
Oh and yes, Update next Friday on flow rates please so I can have a good weekend!!
Over & out!
Chukkers, the link to your posted report says on page 33 also that Selemo was completed as a single lateral
You been reading with your beer goggles on lol..
Last post, i’ll catch uo tomorrow after a drunkards wash ha.
Chukkers. Here:
Drilling commenced in May 2013. Tophole drilling was completed by the end of June 2013 and the Selemo 1A- R well which intersected the Selemo 1P well was completed in August 2013 following the abandonment of the Selemo 1B well. The company noted that the path of the Selemo 1A-R well remained within a good quality coal seam without intersecting any major fault lines.
The lateral Selemo 1B commenced drilling in August 2013. However, this well encountered problems which eventually led to the drill string becoming stuck in the hole at 536m measured depth. This well was subsequently suspended and Selemo was completed as a single lateral pilot pod. At this point activity moved to the Lesedi pod which was designed to be completed as a dual lateral pod.
Page 12-13 of the report. 13 gives flow rates
http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170123-Optiva-Securities-Research-Report.pdf
You heard it here lol...
The Drunkard's Wash unit is located along the western edge of the Uinta basin in Utah. Drunkard's Wash is the most productive of several CBM leases discovered in a coal trend 6 to 10 miles wide and 20 to 60 miles long.
Have a good weekend.
Apologies for the defensiveness, I am a bit snappy this afternoon.
I know what you mean by longer term. Even so, if like Selemo - a peak rate of 400mfd is achieved then levelling off at 200mcfd steady that could still give 400mcfd per pod which would be huge the company/shareholders/SP and show how commercial Tlou could potentially be with such huge acreage.
Im uber positive on these results, hope da fk I dont get a kick in teeth in few months time for being so lol....
Lol I wouldn't say they meaningless as peak flow rates are in all reports for conventional/fracked/CBM gas companies, or why would they bother writing up about them? Why put them into reports etc? Why is Tony G suggesting that ‘peak’ rates could potentially be achieved year end if ‘peak is meaningless? mmmmm maybe he's also talking out his ******** and peak is meaningless? I doubt that tho.
Did you read the report? Im not going to repeat ‘again’ what has been posted at least twice recently. If you haven't, or you just glimpsed over it then maybe you should. The link is somewhere in the history of this board. Selomo was competed as a single lateral.
Thanks Brad. I posted around a year ago there were companies hitting over 1000mcfd but couldn't remember where I read it. I thought it was in some Chinese Basin lol.
Chukkers. My assumptions at the bottom of my last post are based on ‘peak’ flow rates, not steady, and my reference to 2017 Report was to do with the Selemo Pilot Pod which produced a steady (just under) 200mcfd but peaked at a tad under 400scfd ‘as a Single Lateral’.
Therefore 400scfd x 2 for ‘dual’ laterals tells me they can achieve 800mcfd ‘Peak’ rate from each pod.
Gl
Phillips Petroleum Co (now ConocoPhillips) San Juan Basin:
Prior to 1999, Phillips Petroleum Co. had 220 CBM wells producing 290 million cubic feet per day of gas in the San Juan Basin in New Mexico. The company's CBM acreage totaled 110,000 acres.
A whopping 1300mcfd average from each well!
As of March 2001, the company's CBM assets had grown to 1,900 CBM wells producing 590 million cubic feet per day in Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and Alabama. Total acreage had grown to 912,000 acres.
A Steady 310mcfd average from each well!
I’m assuming theses were single horizontals as I cant find reference to Dual’s or multi’s.
https://www.bakersfield.com/news/business/coalbed-methane-booming/article_bdf96128-056c-5b37-a207-37141ce8d876.html
You might need your VPN location set to USA for the above link, I had to.
Then there is CNX Resources:
They drilled 176 horizontals in Southern Pennsylvania and NW Virginia targeting the Pittsburgh and Freeport Coalbeds. Peak production rates from the Pittsburgh varied between 250mcfd - 360mcfd per well.
Just for reference and the reason I have used the above abstract is that Pittsburg coal thickness was only 6 feet. From memory Tlou’s 2 pods have drilled into a coalbed thickness of 6.5 metres?? Not too thick, not too thin either, a bit like a Goldilocks Zone. I Read somewhere before that 6-10 metres is perfect for CBM extraction.
Back to CNX Resources:
One of there first Freeport CBM wells 2007/2008 produced a peak production of 900mcfd
Pretty impressive eh..
No reference to coalbed thickness tho.
Bottom of page 3 some info on those Freeport figures.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/vprr/0804/08042959.pdf
All in all som pretty high figures and some very reasonable yet steady figures in those reports and again all from single horizontals.
As we all know Tlou have Dual wells in operation!
I for one am thinking that we could easily peak at 600-800cfd from ‘each’ Pod. Why? Well we only have historlcal data as a rough guide and the Jan 2017 Optiva Securites report on 2014/15 pilot campaign literally spells out what is achievable in this current campaign.
Roll on the updates! 100mcfd from each pod (or at least 1 pod) in 2 weeks anyone? :))
GLA
Your welcome MyFirst Million.. All I want from now to peak flow rates is regular updates. If they're good then those updates will support the SP until PPA and financing is finalised and RNS’d- Every 3-4 weeks will do:)
GL
Mfm. I think my figures are very low to be honest. I posted on the 26th Aug around 3:00 some historical figures from Selemo in 2014 on flow rates that were achieved and there time frames. Flick back and have a read or read the official link here.
http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170123-Optiva-Securities-Research-Report.pdf