Member Info for JustScott

Lol Brad. Happens to me all the time. BET 365 dont even allow me to surf their site while VPN is on on my mobile.. Feck them!

You heard it here lol...
The Drunkard's Wash unit is located along the western edge of the Uinta basin in Utah. Drunkard's Wash is the most productive of several CBM leases discovered in a coal trend 6 to 10 miles wide and 20 to 60 miles long.

Have a good weekend.

Apologies for the defensiveness, I am a bit snappy this afternoon.
I know what you mean by longer term. Even so, if like Selemo - a peak rate of 400mfd is achieved then levelling off at 200mcfd steady that could still give 400mcfd per pod which would be huge the company/shareholders/SP and show how commercial Tlou could potentially be with such huge acreage.
Im uber positive on these results, hope da fk I dont get a kick in teeth in few months time for being so lol....

Lol I wouldn't say they meaningless as peak flow rates are in all reports for conventional/fracked/CBM gas companies, or why would they bother writing up about them? Why put them into reports etc? Why is Tony G suggesting that ‘peak’ rates could potentially be achieved year end if ‘peak is meaningless? mmmmm maybe he's also talking out his ******** and peak is meaningless? I doubt that tho.

Did you read the report? Im not going to repeat ‘again’ what has been posted at least twice recently. If you haven't, or you just glimpsed over it then maybe you should. The link is somewhere in the history of this board. Selomo was competed as a single lateral.

Thanks Brad. I posted around a year ago there were companies hitting over 1000mcfd but couldn't remember where I read it. I thought it was in some Chinese Basin lol.

Chukkers. My assumptions at the bottom of my last post are based on ‘peak’ flow rates, not steady, and my reference to 2017 Report was to do with the Selemo Pilot Pod which produced a steady (just under) 200mcfd but peaked at a tad under 400scfd ‘as a Single Lateral’.
Therefore 400scfd x 2 for ‘dual’ laterals tells me they can achieve 800mcfd ‘Peak’ rate from each pod.

Gl

Phillips Petroleum Co (now ConocoPhillips) San Juan Basin:

Prior to 1999, Phillips Petroleum Co. had 220 CBM wells producing 290 million cubic feet per day of gas in the San Juan Basin in New Mexico. The company's CBM acreage totaled 110,000 acres.

A whopping 1300mcfd average from each well!

As of March 2001, the company's CBM assets had grown to 1,900 CBM wells producing 590 million cubic feet per day in Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and Alabama. Total acreage had grown to 912,000 acres.

A Steady 310mcfd average from each well!
I’m assuming theses were single horizontals as I cant find reference to Dual’s or multi’s.

https://www.bakersfield.com/news/business/coalbed-methane-booming/article_bdf96128-056c-5b37-a207-37141ce8d876.html

You might need your VPN location set to USA for the above link, I had to.

Then there is CNX Resources:

They drilled 176 horizontals in Southern Pennsylvania and NW Virginia targeting the Pittsburgh and Freeport Coalbeds. Peak production rates from the Pittsburgh varied between 250mcfd - 360mcfd per well.
Just for reference and the reason I have used the above abstract is that Pittsburg coal thickness was only 6 feet. From memory Tlou’s 2 pods have drilled into a coalbed thickness of 6.5 metres?? Not too thick, not too thin either, a bit like a Goldilocks Zone. I Read somewhere before that 6-10 metres is perfect for CBM extraction.

Back to CNX Resources:
One of there first Freeport CBM wells 2007/2008 produced a peak production of 900mcfd

Pretty impressive eh..
No reference to coalbed thickness tho.

Bottom of page 3 some info on those Freeport figures.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/vprr/0804/08042959.pdf

All in all som pretty high figures and some very reasonable yet steady figures in those reports and again all from single horizontals.

As we all know Tlou have Dual wells in operation!

I for one am thinking that we could easily peak at 600-800cfd from ‘each’ Pod. Why? Well we only have historlcal data as a rough guide and the Jan 2017 Optiva Securites report on 2014/15 pilot campaign literally spells out what is achievable in this current campaign.

Roll on the updates! 100mcfd from each pod (or at least 1 pod) in 2 weeks anyone? :))

GLA

Thanks for the effort Mrozzy, appreciated!

Your welcome MyFirst Million.. All I want from now to peak flow rates is regular updates. If they're good then those updates will support the SP until PPA and financing is finalised and RNS’d- Every 3-4 weeks will do:)

GL

Mfm. I think my figures are very low to be honest. I posted on the 26th Aug around 3:00 some historical figures from Selemo in 2014 on flow rates that were achieved and there time frames. Flick back and have a read or read the official link here.

http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170123-Optiva-Securities-Research-Report.pdf

Hi Chukkers. The cost per pod reported back in June 18 was $1.5Mil, your right that theres absolutely no way that 20mcfd will cut it. Core hole drilling comes in at $500k tho I expect that to be much lower now they have there own testing facilities.

Imo both pods are now at around 25 mcfd and will continue to add around +20 mcfd minimum and prob much more per month until peak is reached.

Gl

Brad, nps- No probs- No problem... Mobile text talk;)

Nps Brad.. I’m sticking to my guns and saying they should have enough gas flowing for for at least 4 MW by Xmas, i.e. 320 cfd from each pod ;) I like what the historical results produced and I genuinely can see these wells bettering previous results. I remember at the time when they started drilling these pods Tony was interviewed and said they had picked the 3 best locations to drill the wells from the seismic results that were done shortly before hand.
Have they? mmmm, I suppose it depends what mother nature wants to give us. Lets hope will she be kind lol...

GL

From quora by John Flavin?

Power plant fuel usage for 1 day
Power Capibility 100MW
Power plant heat rate 7000 BTU/Kwh
Full used in 24hrs 1600 mmbtu or 0.0168 BCF
For 1000MW power plant would equate to 0.168 BCF per day / at peak.

Divide above number x 1000 for 1 MW you get 168 MCF per day.

Simples lollol...

Py494, I posted the same figures as yourself back in Oct 18. I think I got my answer from a guy on quora.

I’m not one for emailing co’s, but maybe if one of the posters here who regularly email IR could ask Tony that question then we’d have the correct answer? Just saying ;)....

Lol Brad.

There was talk of possible sale of exploration assets by Tony Gilby when Andrew Scott interviewed him in April 19 shortly after they announced the new Boomslang prospecting license...TG stated they're always looking to turn over their less prospective acreage and always looking for deals, but haven't found the right one just yet..

Gl

*too*

‘Shares in Tlou were up 4.1% at 7.75 pence in London in morning trade.’

They released that a few weeks to early lol

Morning Chukkers, nothing wrong with being conservative with your estimates, And I thought I was being conservative at 100 mcfd for Dec lol..
The good thing about current operations is that its all going very well. Tlou seemed to be plagued with problems in 2014 which we're not experiencing ‘so far’ thankfully. At the same time the figs were good back then and if we can achieve any where near those figs then all will be good.

I liked this in todays RNS:
‘The Lesedi gas production pods are performing strongly. Water rates in both pods continues to decline as planned, with both Lesedi 3 & 4 having successfully commenced flowing sustained rates of gas. As with most new CBM developments this rate is anticipated to steadily increase over the coming months, leading to a peak gas flow rate’.

I’m happy enough with that statement

Not one for guess the price competitions, but having a guess the combined ‘peak’ flow rate from both wells could be fun.

Gl

Chukkers, I just caught up with the weekend posts and noticed you said - ‘think we wont see 100mcfd by end of this year personally’.

I personally think your way off the mark, No Offence.. I hope you are lol.

Heres some info from the last well campaign 2014:

The Selemo pod reached critical gas desorption in July 2014 although operations were temporarily halted in order for Tlou to attend to a casing integrity issue on one of the wells which was completed in September 2014. Shortly after this work, Selemo reached critical gas desorption (CDP) and gas was flared in November 2014 while dewatering operations continued. A short term flow test was conducted in December 2014 and Tlou published the results in early January 2015. The pod was subsequently shut in to allow pressure to build up with a view to a longer term production test.
Peak gas rate observed during test was 395300 scfd for result 1 and 371800 scfd for result 2
Average gas rate for the period was 164000 scfd result 1 and 196000 scfd result 2.

5 months from CDP until figs above including a shut in tell me we could be many multiples od 100000 scfd by Xmas 19 :)..Also Bear in mind that Selemo started off as a Dual Lateral but was completed as a Single Lateral, so in actual fact we could flow twice the amount of gas from Lesedi 3 and 4 giving an average (not peak) of just under 400000 scfd from each well!!
Not too shabby those figures:))
A whopping 800 mcfd would blow my mind lollol...
Heres the link for anyone interested

http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170123-Optiva-Securities-Research-Report.pdf

Good luck man!

I know what you mean Chukkers. Not too bothered myself at the SP, I sold nearly 75% of my holding on the last spike and now starting to accumulate them back at nearly half price:)) A few regular updates with decent increased flow rates over the next couple of months will do me. I said the same yesterday as to why announce those initial poxy rates, he should have waited but there was that much moaning and emails being sent from individuals here he obviously felt obliged too.

Atb