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Hi Chukkers. The cost per pod reported back in June 18 was $1.5Mil, your right that theres absolutely no way that 20mcfd will cut it. Core hole drilling comes in at $500k tho I expect that to be much lower now they have there own testing facilities.
Imo both pods are now at around 25 mcfd and will continue to add around +20 mcfd minimum and prob much more per month until peak is reached.
Gl
Nps Brad.. I’m sticking to my guns and saying they should have enough gas flowing for for at least 4 MW by Xmas, i.e. 320 cfd from each pod ;) I like what the historical results produced and I genuinely can see these wells bettering previous results. I remember at the time when they started drilling these pods Tony was interviewed and said they had picked the 3 best locations to drill the wells from the seismic results that were done shortly before hand.
Have they? mmmm, I suppose it depends what mother nature wants to give us. Lets hope will she be kind lol...
GL
From quora by John Flavin?
Power plant fuel usage for 1 day
Power Capibility 100MW
Power plant heat rate 7000 BTU/Kwh
Full used in 24hrs 1600 mmbtu or 0.0168 BCF
For 1000MW power plant would equate to 0.168 BCF per day / at peak.
Divide above number x 1000 for 1 MW you get 168 MCF per day.
Simples lollol...
Py494, I posted the same figures as yourself back in Oct 18. I think I got my answer from a guy on quora.
I’m not one for emailing co’s, but maybe if one of the posters here who regularly email IR could ask Tony that question then we’d have the correct answer? Just saying ;)....
Lol Brad.
There was talk of possible sale of exploration assets by Tony Gilby when Andrew Scott interviewed him in April 19 shortly after they announced the new Boomslang prospecting license...TG stated they're always looking to turn over their less prospective acreage and always looking for deals, but haven't found the right one just yet..
Gl
Morning Chukkers, nothing wrong with being conservative with your estimates, And I thought I was being conservative at 100 mcfd for Dec lol..
The good thing about current operations is that its all going very well. Tlou seemed to be plagued with problems in 2014 which we're not experiencing ‘so far’ thankfully. At the same time the figs were good back then and if we can achieve any where near those figs then all will be good.
I liked this in todays RNS:
‘The Lesedi gas production pods are performing strongly. Water rates in both pods continues to decline as planned, with both Lesedi 3 & 4 having successfully commenced flowing sustained rates of gas. As with most new CBM developments this rate is anticipated to steadily increase over the coming months, leading to a peak gas flow rate’.
I’m happy enough with that statement
Not one for guess the price competitions, but having a guess the combined ‘peak’ flow rate from both wells could be fun.
Gl
Chukkers, I just caught up with the weekend posts and noticed you said - ‘think we wont see 100mcfd by end of this year personally’.
I personally think your way off the mark, No Offence.. I hope you are lol.
Heres some info from the last well campaign 2014:
The Selemo pod reached critical gas desorption in July 2014 although operations were temporarily halted in order for Tlou to attend to a casing integrity issue on one of the wells which was completed in September 2014. Shortly after this work, Selemo reached critical gas desorption (CDP) and gas was flared in November 2014 while dewatering operations continued. A short term flow test was conducted in December 2014 and Tlou published the results in early January 2015. The pod was subsequently shut in to allow pressure to build up with a view to a longer term production test.
Peak gas rate observed during test was 395300 scfd for result 1 and 371800 scfd for result 2
Average gas rate for the period was 164000 scfd result 1 and 196000 scfd result 2.
5 months from CDP until figs above including a shut in tell me we could be many multiples od 100000 scfd by Xmas 19 :)..Also Bear in mind that Selemo started off as a Dual Lateral but was completed as a Single Lateral, so in actual fact we could flow twice the amount of gas from Lesedi 3 and 4 giving an average (not peak) of just under 400000 scfd from each well!!
Not too shabby those figures:))
A whopping 800 mcfd would blow my mind lollol...
Heres the link for anyone interested
http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/170123-Optiva-Securities-Research-Report.pdf
Good luck man!
I know what you mean Chukkers. Not too bothered myself at the SP, I sold nearly 75% of my holding on the last spike and now starting to accumulate them back at nearly half price:)) A few regular updates with decent increased flow rates over the next couple of months will do me. I said the same yesterday as to why announce those initial poxy rates, he should have waited but there was that much moaning and emails being sent from individuals here he obviously felt obliged too.
Atb
Apologies to all for venting my frustration here today. Its been a long wait.
I've had a good hard look at todays RNS. Tlou on twitter back on the 31st July show a little flare when they reach critical desorption. Now 23 days later they've hit 20mcfd 'per pod' , yes its small but it was quite quick too. Going at that rate they should be hitting 100mcfd 'per pod' say mid Dec. Are the BG waiting on this milestone before finalising the PPA? Imo yes followed by the financing. Plus within these next 5 weeks they start to prove up Mamba by core drilling (assuming they mean Core in the forward plan outline) which is fully funded, results in 1Q20 and hopefully a reserve upgrade....
If and its a big if, if Tlou keep us regularly up to date with increased flow rates say every 2-3 weeks and theyre similar to or exceed the figures above it will help sustain or boost the SP from now until Juicy Dec/Jan/Feb when we should really take off. Going to top up a couple small lots now over my 2 accounts and will add more again if we get regular positive updates on flows.
Gla and again accept my apologies.
BradSmith, 50p celebration in a couple of months? Maybe if you got Tidd and WolfgangRampadayus or whatever his name was, throw in a wordpress endorsed by Justin Waste then you could celebrate a 50p party by the end of the week!
DTP, fair enough you may have been here longer, i’ll believe you.. As for the boring negative drivel, I haven't seen much of that here, especially from myself, but then again I stopped reading the board about a month ago as there was that much bs talk it put me off reading it... Good luck to you and I hope you hit your target sooner rather than later.
Haha, first post here and you insult Lths telling them to stop whinging? Wind your neck in man. We have supported this company for 3 years, buying in on placings, buying extra shares than allocated etc. Did you? Or are you just in now at -5p? Good luck if you are! Btw, its the Botswana Government and the amount of times things are delayed and the obscure timeframes that most posters complain about which they have a right to do so.
Hello CH. Everyone has been crying out for an update and they got it. It wasn't great. That RNS was far too early, Tlou should have waited to see how much the gas flows were increasing each week giving us something more to calculate upon, or should have just waited until we were at least hitting +75mcfd, not a poxy 20. Sorry...
Morning BTS. We've been here roughly the same time and your posts have always mirrored my thoughts. So I cant understand why you didn't sell a percentage of your holding when we were above 8p, you always said your average was low 8’s and wanted out. I was down 11k at one point with a similar average as you. When it last spiked I got £15k of my £21.5k investment out with a £400 total loss, (wish I had sold it all). I probably wont buy them back anytime soon( most likely never). I Really do hope you get your investment back soon, your a sound fella.. Just pull that trigger on the next spike, I felt a bit sick when I sold them as Ive always been a great believer in Tlou and TG - you guys know that - now Im so glad I did it.
Gl and keep posting, your as honest as they come here!