RE: Tick, Tick Tock , The Shorter's are now on HEMOs Clock.29 Jan 2024 02:13
100% with Haywain and HH on this one, there is NOTHING you can read into 30 days, they have 30 days and they may not even have opened the submission yet if they are busy, OR they could have already prepared the response to lift the CH. PURE GUESS work. Having had a full review already, one issue raised, that one issue addressed with a plan submitted to lift the CH approved by the FDA I think we all agree (even pumpkin) that odds are in our favour.
Week or so ago the shorts pretty much all closed as we had day after day of blue, so confident those shorts took a loss. Friday IG was showing 50% buys 50% sells (IG CUSTOMERS ONLY) and end of day short position went from 0% to 9%. IG had 85mil on register, so 9% is approx 8m shares shorted but Friday Volume was only 4.3m with 1-2mil definitely buys...
Those shorting on IG are using leveraged positions, they bet against the share price and IG IF NEEDED will sell shares in Hemogenyx to hedge the bet and reduce exposure, this is a very good read on it:
https://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Spread-betting-hedge.html
Basically if there is an 8k short and someone else buys 8k long then IG dont need to do anything. if that 8m is even remotely close, friday was 2.8 to sell, spread = 2.78 or worse, 3p or 3.02 min to buy... IF that is correct... they are sitting on a 19k loss, if an RNS lands and hits4p? 80k... Spreadex position is even worse, 18% and been open since much lower so hate to imagine the potential losses for shorters there!
Ortex shows no broker shorts, but remember an official short position on Ortex would indicate a professional/broker who likely has good reason to do so expecting SP to drop. They have days to cover and are less vulnerable to volatile movements, but the smart money is NOT short. The shorts on IG/Spreadex are just private individuals who dont know when the FDA will respond, saw 3p, thought it was good for a short. If the SP spikes up 30-40%? good chance they get forced closed, no days to cover, just an automated forced close, and if long traders dont close and take profit? THEN the brokers have to buy shares to reduce their exposure. Bottom line is a short is just a deferred buy, IF the true size of the short position is even half of the 8m (4m) that is ALOT of deferred buys which have to be made before CH is lifted. Why before? IND approval was not priced in before the CH was applied (SP had been flat for 6 months) and it still tanked >50% on clinical hold. That makes a 100% gain on CH lifting extremely conservative. I recommend looking at the chart for 2nd June 2023. What will happen when Hemogenyx are suddenly "Clinical"? When they are allowed to start trials? One of these days, soon, we are going to find out what happens when CH is lifted, and I hope those shorts are still short when it happens :-)