Member Info for Just_My_Opinions

Also the DEMA crossover will give earlier entries... but often too early. The EMA gives later entries, but helps you stay in trends. And don;t assume that just because a stock has been trending favorably in a time-frame you've chosen for a while, that it will always be that way... it behaviors can change, particularly if the market is thinking it's way over valued. If you buy stocks that have already had very big sell offs over previous weeks or months you often eliminate a lot of the risk. If you buy stocks that have rallied for ages and done really well, often you'll be in a trade and the slightest negative news can gap it down substantially.

haven't got small losses to make up* feckin fingers

McGinley dynamic is another good one to play about with, you can change the periods on it too. It's a good monitor of trend.

stare not stair lol

Yep... I literally stair at the charts on various time frames, trying to work out how it normally moves. If one time frame looks rubbish, with too many bad moves, I move higher usually. I change from EMA to DEMA, if that's no use I look at either the 8 EMA crossing the 200 MA on various time frames. Sometimes I using the 8 EMA crossing the 200 MA... and exit on the 8 EMA crossing the 34 EMA above it. But if hits my profit target for what I think is a reasonable (not greedy) target I'll often just close the trade before it reverses. Sometimes that means watching it go quite a bit higher, but a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, provided you have got a lot of small losses to make back up... then I'll take the gamble and let it run in the hope of more, and if not close on the crossover.

I'm 34

I'm actually considering putting a good chunk of our pensions into funds, looking after my son during the day, taking him to nursery and back, dropping the wife at work etc... it's getting harder to manage the accounts. My trade the ISA and spread bet, and put most of the pension money into funds. The return will still be reasonable over the years. And the ISA and Spread betting brings money in to pay the mortgage off sooner.

Pete, Within a 5 year period I would be utterly shocked if there's not some sort of massive correction, are you going to have the stomach to hold a stock or stocks during something like that? Questioning your judgement the entire time it's dropping, or get out on a loss? If you're finding this stuff really stressful, but still want an above average return... probably best just to speak to an IFA, and ask them for their recommendations for a balanced portfolio of of adventurous funds. That way even if there is a big drop, you know a bunch of professionals are managing the funds and it's just a case of waiting it out, reinvesting any income you may get in the process.

So assuming Glencore starts paying him again if there is in fact an agreement, what's the worst they get chinned for? Or maybe a small fine that makes some corrupt Congolese official money, but does feck all to Glencore's balance sheet. But I'm not a fundamentals guy... just speculating.

It's probably still a drop in the ocean for Glencore mate... surely these royalties are factored into forecasts? But Glencore just stopped paying due to Getler being labled a wrong un by the USA?

Dan Getler is very close to the president of the Congo, has known him for years since his youth. He paid the president $20 Million for sole rights to diamonds in the Congo. I assume Glencore has not paid a back hander to the President... so who's side will a judge take? Seems likely Glencore will come off worse. But what are the implications for Glencore if they start paying Getler again?

It also gaps up and down a hell of a lot, so a buy signal could get sold off as people lock in unexpected profits to take it back to the previous day's close.

tight range*

GSK is not a great stock to trade mate. It ranges a lot... sits in a right range giving rubbish setups and then unexpectedly breaks out. I probably wouldn't even trade it mate, more of a buy on support levels and hope for the best type of stock. The 20/50 seems reasonable having had a look at it, but I wouldn't use it unless there had been a big sell off first, as if there hasn't been the stock is more likely to sit in a right range giving you unprofitable entry and exits. Basically the faster a stock moves, the better it trends. That's why Glen is a favourite for traders, it moves quick... it has a high "Beta Volatility".

Not got time for that mate, I look after my kid with special needs during the day. I just post in between doing that and trading.

even harder*

Also if you use any of these crossovers, don't just stick to one. The 8/34 DEMA might work better than the 8/34 EMA for the stock you're interested in, and vice versa. And if you go long and it recrosses shortly after to produce a loss, close the trade regardless. Don't second guess it... I've done that in the past, it's hard to let go of the target and monetary amount you envisioned... but it even hard to reap the consequences of ignoring the short signal. This will happen loads of times when you're on forums and 90% of the people there are saying this is going far higher, and you might be the only one ignoring what their saying and exiting. You can always re-enter on the next long signal, even if that means getting in a bit higher than your previous entry. If it trends well you will recover the small loss and make a profit. If it does result in a downtrend you will get the relief of taking a small hit when others are sitting with a big loss... and you'll be ready to buy much lower than the small loss price you exited on.

I target 5 to 10% on most trades. Although if I trade medium term on the daily I may go to 15 or 20%, depends on how the stock normally moves. FX I mostly let the strategy run, but if I get lucky and very high amount of pips is hit fairly quickly I will just close and wait on the next trading signals. For example I opened 3 FX spread bet trades on the 18/04. I hit over 700 pips, it dropped back to just under 600, at that point I could either close there and then or take a punt and let it run till the crossover happened in the opposite direction. (I was using the 3 McGinley Dynamic against the 200 MA on the hourly for each) I know I was going to close on a decent profit no matter what happened as I moved my stop well above the 200 MA, but worked out how much room to give it to keep moving. The pairs then rose to a combined value of over 730 pips again. So I closed them. That's good going for 1 week and a day. It's good going even for a month. So now I'll just wait on the next signals. Never have sellers remorse either. If you're still in profit that's all that matters, over time you get used to extracting the most you can, and protecting the profit once you have it.

RSI is hit and miss mate. I still have a look at it, but I don't use it as one of my main trading tools anymore. Best just to target stocks that have been heavily sold off. As long as the company is not proper fubar, then it's a target for trading. I use various strategies, but to keep it simple... Check the 8/34 DEMA, 8/34 EMA and MACD crossovers on the stock you're targeting. Check it on each time frame from 1 hour to the daily (24 hours). Work out which timeframe it consistently trends the best on. Then settle on a timeframe to trade it when you've worked that out. Put the 200 MA (the average price of the last 200 candle closes) on the chart, if you study it you will see the best long signals are mostly when the price is above the 200 MA. The best short signals are mostly when the price is below the 200 MA. On previous big sell offs work out the max percentage the stock hit on previous long signal crossovers that happened after the big sell off. And set a realistic target a bit below the average of them, and exit when it's hit. If it's not hit and reverses close on the recross. If you've bought after a big enough sell off a lot of the risk is removed and you'll either make a small profit or a small loss. If it goes on a run you make a big profit. All trading is about is closing the losers early and letting the winners run. Without money management , without trade management it will 100% end in failure eventually. When your target is hit, don't sit stewing with Harry Hindsight if it goes another 5 or 10% just pat yourself on the back for making a profit when most don't over the long term, and then look for the next target. I've lost count on the number of times in the past I was greedy, removed my sell target for a bit more, it went a bit more but not to the next target I set... next morning RNS dropped it BIG... and I closed on a loss. The market is unpredictable. Trading using technical analysis is about putting probability in your favour. The only thing you can control in the market is how much you risk, and even then with stocks gap downs can see your stop hit lower than you wanted. If you're putting more than 10% of your pot into a trade, you need to be thinking nimble. When I get x% I will close the trade no matter what. If it reverses on me I will get out as quickly as possible. And stick to FTSE 100 if going in with higher than 10% per trade. It's a marathon not a sprint.

close before it crosses to sell I mean if happy with profit