Member Info for Just_My_Opinions

What confirmation criteria are you using for that bottom :-)

Just had a discussion on Capita, it's being taken very seriously this.

Might be a dead cat bounce anytime now, but I see no chance of a more permanent floor until at least 160p. And that's "chance", not "will be".

https://uk.tradingview.com/x/Sfe2uYGd/

Ouch a 65% loss, that'll need a 185.71% return just to break even (not including stamp duty and trading fees)

Oh there will be a dead cat bounce at least, rarely does anything ever go down in a straight line

No idea if it will happen, but in my experience, other than trend development getting in and out on a trend establishing and ending... other than that technicals go right out the window if the fundamentals are dire.

Probably the most accurate post on this board this morning haha

Yet, nothing like Carillion yet. No one knows if said plans will fix the company.

A dead cat bounce might come at some point, but it's hard to see that forming a significant uptrend.

Don't bottom fish, it's pure gambling. You might get it right, you might not. Try instead to enter when a trend looks to be establishing. So not the bottom, let others be the guinea pig, if they get it right the get more reward. But if they get it wrong they need to sit and look at a losing position. https://uk.tradingview.com/x/JO9ir8tL/

Woodford... Was he really the brains behind the previous funds he done so well with? Or did he have good analysts no longer working with him who were the true reason for his past performance? Because all I'm seeing nowadays is how spectacularly wrong the guy is getting it... there's a strong pattern failure with him, these are not one offs.

Sorry for your loss mate, when these sort of big percentage drops happen, people come seemingly from nowhere with big losses. I hope your portfolio was at least �400k to �800k otherwise that's a big bullet to bite.

Well at least this "Ignore Sentiment" post was after market hours, where your average Joe doesn't have access to the buy button.

Ditched this today, had buttons in it... just don't have the patience to look at red all the time when I know it's downtrending. Buying and holding is for me, but only if swing trading an uptrend haha. Had more in Glen so I'm just above break even anyway. Renko Chart is a clear downtrend on the daily, I'll re-enter when that changes for another go, trading it right this time with technicals. Best of luck to holders, the dust should settle eventually provided there's no toxic debt. Chartist... Renko, simple, saves all the analysis. Go long on the 3rd green block opening provided it's the same or higher than the previous close. Close it or go short on the 3rd Red block opening provided it's the same or lower than the previous close. Don't reverse or close the trade until the aforementioned repeats itself. Run it on the daily chart on ATR 14 (Average True Range) Saves all the hours of analysis and staring at the screen, the only thing that matters is trend as you know. Trend is your friend. https://uk.tradingview.com/x/se1B7w2N/

Take those with a pinch of salt. It's impossible for those analysts to know what the out come of the FCA investigation will be for both Vanquis and Moneybarn. And like HH said they could be holding info back. The point in topping up is to improve your average significantly. If the SP tanks from here and goes to 430... topping up now could seem a poor decision. And waiting for a lower price before averaging down means there is more time, so more news could come out to allow a better informed decision. With that said in the absence of something really Nasty, this will probably recover significantly given time.

Best not to add to a losing position unless the difference in the current price is massive compared to your other entries... if you add to soon you'll barely affect your average. And you could just be chucking money straight into a downtrend.

From the trading statement... "Overall, CCD is expected to report a pre-exceptional loss of approximately �120m which is at the upper end of the guidance of a pre-exceptional loss of between �80m and �120m provided in August 2017." I'm thinking, it's funny how it landed bang on that �120m so the upper end, but not over it. I'm thinking did they hold back more in the hope the market didn't react badly due to it being higher than guidance? But then if it is surely it's not massively higher, or someone would be telling real porkies. And this... "Moneybarn Moneybarn has continued to enjoy a good flow of new business volumes during the fourth quarter of the year, despite the tightening of underwriting on higher risk categories of business during the second quarter of the year as previously communicated. Extension of both the product offering and distribution channels and further service enhancements to intermediaries has generated new business volumes approximately 30% higher compared to the relatively weak fourth quarter of 2016. Customer numbers and receivables ended the year at 50,000 and �376m showing year-on-year growth of 22% and 26% respectively. The annualised risk-adjusted margin has moderated from 22.7% to September 2017 to 21.8% to December 2017 (December 2016: 24.1%) reflecting additional impairment associated with the step-up in new business volumes over the last year and the flow through of impairment from higher risk categories of business prior to the tightening of underwriting in the second quarter." So Money Barn was lending to people they should have, and had to tighten their underwriting criteria as a result, they report the reduction in risk like it's good... when really it's only been reduced by 0.9% And another one from the Vanquis bank section of the trading update... "CCD continues to operate under an interim permission whilst the home credit business implements its recovery plan." So they had to get an interim permission just to keep operating the whole of their Consumer Credit Division? Offt the FCA are taking this very seriously then... It seems the gamble is, the license to operate could be revoked (but probably won't be), they get a fine that is either less than the market expects, or on par with what the market expects. Anyway I'm up to late again, will finish reading it tomorrow.

As HH said, the company could be holding something back i.e bad loans. Is there any evidence of PFG relaxing lending criteria? Other than that, there's the FCA investigations into Vanquis's (ROP) which is basically a payment holiday, or suspension of Credit account for up to two years at a cost (see link). So this is for a 2 year period, and accounts for roughly �70 Million in revenue per year. So worse case scenario, this is found to be similar to CRP (Card Holder Repayment Protection) which is the Credit card equivalent of PPI... that means a �140 Million write down if they are forced to put that revenue aside to compensate customers that have paid it over the two years. Correct me if I'm missing something, I'm not making a claim, just thinking out loud is all. https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/cards/2017/08/vanquis-bank-investigated-over-credit-card-repayment-offer- And the investigation into MoneyBarn, I'm not sure what that could result in worst case scenario, maybe a fine of some sort. But they are putting new process in place to address concerns, so might not be that bad, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/05/fca-provident-financial-car-finance-moneybarn So basically they struggled to collect money due to this new operating model that basically flopped. They've lost loads of staff due to it, and some customers won't have anything to do with them. I can imagine some of the riskier door step lending customers ending up in further debt because there payments had not been collected on time and they couldn't manage their money the way they expected... some of them will either have defaulted completely... meaning big write downs for PFG... or they might have paid it back and then said they want nothing more to do with PFG. But the trading update said the uptake of customers coming back to them had been slower than expected, but then said overall numbers were up about 30k, unless I'm missing something, only had a quick look at it. With all this said.. even if they do take hits on both Vanquis and MoneyBarn, they still have a fairly strong customer base... so it doesn't look like they would go under, unless they really holding back something scandalous with regards to bad loans. If they find a new CEO... it's in his best interests to come straight in and expose everything warts and all, potentially hammering the share price due to that, and then rebuilding the business. That way he's starting from the gutter and pulling himself out, this means he gets to keep his job longer, his stock options will be in at a low price, and he can justify his bonus. Bit like the New Tesco CEO did haha

Unexpected RNS's there's not a technical indicator, nor chart in the world capable of foreseeing those.