Member Info for Just_My_Opinions

The stock is getting ready for a violent move up or down. On one hand there's a basing pattern, meaning there could be a rise. On the other hand there's a bear pennant formed on the hourly. Hard to call. Sitting on the sidelines waiting for trend confirmation before I do anything.

"Why does someone place large (14-16k) buys as soon as 690-695p is touched?" The company has a market cap of over �1 Billion. Those trades are a p*ss in the ocean. At best it's a shorter closing a small portion of their position. Although Hargreaves Lansdown shows the 3 14k trades as sells today.

"Because I'm going for a beer tonight after the gym. And I found it interesting that some peeps increased their shareholding just like that." So you thought you'd label the thread "Beer Pennant", and then ramble about something completely unrelated to that chart pattern, expecting people to read your mind that you were going to the Gym later? Yep you do like a Ramble.

Why label the thread "Beer Pennant", and then make a post that has nothing to do with the Bear Pennant? Makes no sense. You do like a ramble.

Bit better drawing... https://uk.tradingview.com/x/Vmvwy35b/

Looks like a bear pennant forming on the hourly to me. Careful. https://uk.tradingview.com/x/R2WKRmiw/ http://tradingweeks.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/bear-pennant.html#.WmX2Z65l82w

Yeah as a thought, a troll with no substance.

Ok wise one... what's your opinion then? Are Tullow stocks not risky? The volatility must be a figment of my imagination then... it's such a low risk stock people are pilling in to it in their droves. Oh wait... they're not. I wonder why that is then? They can be poised to report whatever they like, until it happens it's an unsubstantiated claim. All we know at the moment is the company has paid hardly any of it's overall debt off using it's own cash flow. Most of the debt they paid off was from the rights issue. But cash flow is improving. If the oil price were to suddenly tank to sub $40 again, bye bye $0.8 Billion profit. Stevie Wonder could see that.

https://uk.tradingview.com/x/Zkx3PRSu/ 205 to 208p potentially (Red arrows) as past resistance often becomes support... but oil price dependent. Not worried about the shorts, they're only 5% Risky stock as loss making, but cash flow is improving, so no reason for the banks to fold the company if it's got a healthy cash flow and can service it's debts. Provided the oil price stays roughly where it is (on average), can't see why cash flow wouldn't be even better on the next financials, and provided it is, I also don't see why this couldn't multi-bag given time. I have a small speculative amount in TLW.

Not sure when... but I can't see it hanging around here for long... I think it'll end up at it's IPO price sooner or later.

Chart, What you using for these figures... Fibonacci?

Agreed

DBNO, You don't think it can get to 430p?

my2penneth, I agree with you... I've made no trading or investment decisions based on it. I just find it handy to sniff out potentially undervalued stocks worth watching for entries.... it can be done a lot quicker than manually going through hundreds of stocks.

Chartist, Unless you're after a quick scalp from a dead cat bounce. I would ignore 700p, it's purely a psychological level, it has no previous support from what I can see. 650p was achieved this morning... traders are eyeing up January 2008 levels for this. If 650p fails to hold... then the next logical level I'm afraid is all the way down to 426p with various small bounces a long the way. https://uk.tradingview.com/x/eJUEIN0i/ That from a technical perspective... from a fundamental perceptive (just learning fundamentals) the discount to future cash flow is over 50% according to SimplyWall.st But this can't be completely accurate given the loss of that Argos contract. I've emailed Simplywall.St to see why the data hasn't been updated and how it works with trading statements, rather than actual financial reports. The home credit business is basically suffering from a lack of trust, that trust needs to be rebuilt. I'm confident it will be as people buy from people. Competitors such as Wonga.com are just people on the end of the phone, not a face to face relationship. With that said the fundamentals clearly haven't yet stabilized. So I suspect more weakness in the SP is to follow, I wouldn't be surprised to see 426p (or thereabouts) visited again. If it gets to 430p... I'll open the first tranche.

Today's bounce doesn't confirm the end of the downtrend mate, just to be clear... a higher high has not been printed. Could be a dead cat bounce.

Oh I see I said purely on fundamentals haha... at the time I was thinking drop in growth based on yesterdays lower sales figures... helps keep the downtrend going... and made a guess based on the support levels I found that 296p was unlikely to hold over the coming weeks. And based on past movements I made the call that I won't go in for anything more than 277p, preferably 260p. If it doesn't get there then happy to miss out

3rd quarter results*

I'm not, it;s not based on fundamentals. It's based on technical analysis support levels. The day after the referendum MKS printed 255.1p briefly, it's actually lower, but this was for such a short period of time... I'm saying 260p. But there's still 296/97p and about 277p to test before it even gets to 260p assuming the downtrend continues. Right now it's printed a higher low by a very small margin, but not a higher high. So it's wait and see time. I'm not clued up on fundamental valuations based on actual projections and financial calculations, neither are 99% of people on here. Just learning about proper fundamental analysis (not speculation) at the moment as switching to longer term holding due to life commitments. According to SimplyWall.st MKS discount to future cash flow is about 38% allowing for today's current price. But growth is not expected to be good. Given yesterday's trading update I can see why. I want it cheaper than this or I won't buy. Doesn't mean it will get there though, best of luck.

According to SimplyWall.st the discount to future cash flow on Tullow is 29% with an about right figure of �3.22, that can go up or down depending on what headway TLW is making with free cash flow on each report. If the oil price keeps increases or at least stabilizes at or near these prices, obviously that should boost cash flow. I have a small holding here taken around 233/234 today. I'll keep a hold of it for the medium to long term depending on what I see.