Member Info for JungleBabbler

and more importantly you can't use the 60 to work out the 25%'s worth as the 60 is last years news. simples.

yep we only own 25% of the mine - you've multiplied 60m by 20 not by 5.

I make that 3.3m per day.

Strudel, I'm afraid you've answered a different question. Effectively what you've done is decided that the first PIN is 1 and only one 4-digit number. You've pre-decided that the first card to arrive - cannot have any of the other 9,999 numbers. That wasn't the premise of my original post.

Likewise your comment about the 2 dice being rolled 'together' is incorrect.
If you throw 2 dice the chances of getting 2 sixes really is 1 in 36

Likewise with 2 PINs it is 10,000 x 10,000
The bottom line is it is one statistical event and you need to treat each card/PIN as having ANY one of the possible values (not a specific value which is what you have done).

Anyway I hadn't intended to distrub the board with my thoughts other than to make the point that realy unlikely events can and do occur - more often than one would have thought.

So yes I do think there is distinct possibility than our own elephant hunters could well find something else - particulary as they're so not wildcat drillers.

The mistake people are making is considering each card separately whereas it is ONE statistical event (in this case).

GGPThruandtru. The answer to your dice question is....
The probablity of rolling two 6's with a pair of die is.... 0.02777778
or if you prefer 1 in 36.

Bancal - your logic is flawed. You are only considering the odds of a particular PIN number on ONE card - which is as you say 1 in 10,000. However, what I clearly stated was was 2 cards arriving with the SAME pin. So you have to consider the both cards PIN number range at the same time i.e. it is one event, 2 cards - for statistical purposes.
So it is 10,000 x 10,000 - which is ......

"Joking aside - what are the chances of a HAV x 2, seriously?"

Unsual things happen more often than you would think. In the last 3 months I flipped 2 of my credit cards and as we know each card has a PIN number made up of 4 digits 0000-> 9999 (in theory).

So what are chances that these 2 new cards from 2 DIFFERENT providers would arrive with the SAME PIN?
I think the odds are 1 in 100 million.

Makes you wonder. So I'm thinking there is more to found but whether its exactly the same, somthing different or a cluster of smaller ones - who knows. BUT don't bet against it..

GLALTH

The RNS states they cannot SELL them in the first year. It does NOT explicitly state they cannot LOAN them out (although that could be in the small print).

pressed send too soon:)

Yes I believe they could raise capital Sandgounded.
So they could loan them out ... to a shorter....
BUT there might be something in the small print which isn't explicit in the RNS which prevents that happening.

Yes I believe they could raise capital Sandgounded.
So they could loan them out ... to a shorter....
BUT there might be something in the small print which isn't explicit in the RNS

O.5p

can you repost please.

My 1,500 BUY is showing as a SELL. ....(not the first time)

The 75000 puchase first thing is mine. Seems a bargain at this price:)

bought..........is the missing word--doh

I like what I read in both RNSs so just another 1,500 shares.
GLALTH

FWIW.....
1 st part is just cut-n-paste of the RNS...
his comment...
I am away today which may not be such a bad thing, it will give me a chance to listen to the webcast and catch up with both companies today and tomorrow before trying to assess what is best for both sets of shareholders.

However my initial thoughts must be that the Kistos bid for Serica looks like having potentially more upside for shareholders than the other way round. All the numbers are above but I can’t quite see how Kistos shareholders (obviously as AA has such a big holding but would be locked in) can get to any significant upside.

As I said I’m hoping to catch up with Mitch Flegg and Andrew Austin to see what they are saying, it may not be much and I fear that advisors will make everybody keep schtum. There are a number of factors at play as well, UK gas prices are way lower than TTF levels and of course Serica have just spudded the North Eigg well which will have a marked valuation effect should it come in.

Also the Kistos bid for Serica would seemingly put together the best parts of both managements, which are amongst the best in the sector and yet should Serica win then nobody from Kistos will be in the combined team. The Kistos deal would also commit the combined group to a Premium listing with the possibility of becoming a fast growing, UK based oil and gas company with potential for admission to indices such as the FTSE 250, surely a good move for bigger shareholders?

Finally as I said I’m going to try and catch up with both sides in the next 24 hours, I may not get everyone I want but I’m sure at some stage Kistos will talk even if they are under strict control by advisors

Indeed Ben,
Havieron is ONE in a million!
GLA

Its WHERE he's coming back to that's the key here. It's London and London is one of the major financial centres (there arn't many - HK is out these days). So must be coming back to see the Banks and he must have details of the 5% deal and therefore how much extra we'll need in the longer term to square the circle vis-a-vis r share of the Havieron mine development cost.
What we can't know is.... Is the 5% deal to be announced before he sees the Banks or after. On balance of probabilities he's actually physically signing off on the debt funding after the 5% deal is announced.
Fingers crossed....