Member Info for jun_man

Yep so there we are - US$200m and the end of this journey, which has worked out well for me having timed my purchases judiciously. It's a smidge above the soft value of US$194m included in the most recent report, which translated to a total return of 154p / share including the final dividend to be paid in Q4. Not bad - hats off to the mgmt team for getting the sales done, which a few years ago looked like a long shot. I still look to book on routes that fly the great A380, and delighted to have owned a very, very small part of 7 over the last few years.

Yeah clearly the market thinks there's a reasonable chance this gets voted down, otherwise the share price would be 13.4p or thereabouts

Yeah that's a more interesting question. All I can find is commentary on the Anglo takeover of Sirius, where retail beneficial owners complained that their views were not represented. In that case, it appears that the judge sanctioned the Scheme in part at least because not doing so would have tipped Sirius into insolvency, and was therefore viewed as the 'lesser of two evils'. It seems that the Law Commission at least initiated a consultation into how owners rights could be represented, but I can't find out what changes (if any) were made. I suppose at the very least then that a nominee, e.g. HL, would vote some in favour or some against, so this must count as at least two votes. So if it's acceptable to say a legal owner counts as two votes, why not the number of different instructions it receives? Definitely needs proper legal advice.

I mean, it's not incorrect insofar as 75% of the number of shares which are voted need to vote in favour, but the critical point of a Scheme of Arrangement is that it also requires a majority of the number of voters to vote in favour. And this applies to each class of share, as you note, though in I3E's case I assume there is only one class of share. I haven't checked.

Yeah that's not correct. It's 75% by value and 50% by number.

Apologies my bad it’s 75% by number of shares and simple majority (>50%) by number of voters. Non-voters don’t count.

I’ve said it before on this thread and will say it again, but this is being implemented as a Scheme of Arrangement. This means it needs 75% of the shares AND 75% of shareholders to vote in favour, for the court to sanction the scheme.

So a retail investor holding one share counts the same as an institution with 50m shares.

If you want the other side of the story, head on over to the GTE discussion board on Yahoo Finance ('Conversations' tab on the left hand side). The commenters there don't appear to be overly enamoured with the deal either!

Normally - I haven't reviewed the offer documentation that's been published so far - investors will be offered the chance to request that they get cash instead of the equity element. This usually requires some shareholders to take less cash and more shares, i.e. the total cash paid by GTE remains the same, all that happens is that different shareholders get a different proportion. If not enough shareholders give up the cash element, then your mix and match election would be adjusted on a pro rata basis. It's usually there for small / retail shareholders who don't want to end up owning a small number of overseas shares which might be more expensive to sell.

Hi bots

I don't think that can be correct, and is not borne out by the data currently available.

The offer using hte US$8.66 price per GTE share was 10.43p + 0.2565p + 1/207th of a GTE share. At US$8.66 and an xrate of 1.29, that gives 10.43p + 0.2565p + 3.24p = 13.93p / I3E share

The 10.43p and dividend can't change, so if the I3E price is 12.2p, then the GTE equity element is 1.51p. Reversing out the xrate and the exchange ratio gives an implied price of US$4.04 per GTE share. There is zero chance of the GTE share price falling by more than 50%, and indeed a more significant drop would be shown in pre-market if this was to be the case.

It's interesting that the price is only at about 12.15 / 12.2p at the moment, despite the offer being worth (as at open) 13.92p per share. I haven't yet worked out the dynamic here, but that price suggests the market sees a reasonable chance of the offer failing. Per my post at 11:37, as a Scheme there is a chance this happens, but given the recommendation by the Board and the undertakings to vote in favour, I'd consider that reasonably unlikely (but not without precedent). It certainly suggests that the market doesn't see a higher offer coming, from anyone, as I've seen it happen more often that the price trades above the initial offer in expectation of more to come.

Like others, I can't see any point in selling at this price, when there's 13.92 pence on the table (whether you think that's a good price or not). For the offer to be worth 12.2p, the Gran Tierra price would have to drop to $4.04. Pre-market it's showing as -4.5% / US$8.15. I'm assuming because their shareholders don't like the cash element. It's hard to argue they are over-paying.

And bear in mind it’s being implemented via a Scheme of Arrangement, so the requirement is to hit 75% of the number of shares AND 75% of the number of shareholders who vote. So your vote is entirely equal to the vote of someone who owns 10% of the company.

If the company thinks the Scheme will fail they will likely have included the opportunity to switch to an offer, but then they’ll need to get to 90% of shares to squeeze out.

Hi @damofarl - thank you for the extended reply, it all makes sense, and not unexpected. Also you're welcome for the language, I've always found English pretty great like that. GLA I'm invested here for the long term as well.

Also as the offer is in USD, there may be FX costs on its settlement, so selling in the market in GBP may make more sense. Currently showing 3.08-3.09 as bid/ask

Yeah I think that's that. Well played to Helikon, who've made a quick buck or two.

I always had £3 as my price target on this, so the offer at £3.13 seems fine to me, particularly because the alternative is the delisting, and that's a disaster.

I may sell my shares in the interim so can redeploy them elsewhere, rather than sit and wait for the offer to complete.

Helikon now up above 4%, and interestingly most recent purchases north of £2.60

Hahaha - they bought shares in the market at £2.50. I have always been sceptical about how much they care about the Listing Rules and the Code, but that's got to have been a mistake or they ignored advice. Anyway, seems like we're now up to at least $3.15 or whatever the Xrate is. Still undervalued, but not by quite as much.

And now 3.7%. Agreed - no idea what the specific angle they have is, but it's obv not nothing. Good luck to them = good for me :-)

And now 3.22%, still buying.

Thanks Gavster. My instinct was that it was a procedural update, I just wasn't completely clear on it.