Member Info for jun_man

These are a good set of results, no question IMHO. I did expect it would be strong, as Q1 was the last quarter for the old loyalty scheme, and I know plenty of people (myself included) who dumped a bunch of money on flights and holidays before 31st March to retain status. Q2 is going to be key for me, and it was good to read that bookings at 80% are ahead of last year.

That being said, there are some points of concern in the figures. I'm going to keep an eye on BA, which saw drops in passengers carried, RPK and load factors. Non-fuel costs were up 8.8%, although fuel costs were down. But costs still rose more than revenue.

I expect the share price to move up above £3 again, but I fear Q2 may disappoint. I hope I'm wrong.

Like others, thought the results were pretty decent. I think the reasons for there not being a more positive response in the SP is the figures around cashflow for 2025, i.e. the amount of expenditure on remediation, with the statement that the forecast year end net cash position may be zero. Not something you ever want to read for a housebuilder. I think the combination of these two things, plus the other commentary around cashflow and working capital, have communicated the message 'It's at least another 12 months until we can start improving returns to shareholders'.

Garonne you are Neville Chamberlain, and I claim my five pounds

LSELoser, without checking I think 4.4bn is operating profit, not net income. It's also in euros, and the MC is in £.

If you're looking at operating profit as the metric for financial performance, you need to compare it to enterprise value, i.e. market cap plus net debt plus pension obligations plus whatever other adjustments you think are necessary to calculate the true EV. I haven't researched whether EV/EBIT is considered a standard or useful valuation metric for valuing airlines. I'd think PE is pretty useful as it takes into account depreciation and interest expense.

Can someone explain this maths to me? Basic EPS from the results was €0.557, so call it £0.46. Share price is £3.50 give or take, which is a PE of 7.6x...?

HL provides live prices, if you have an account with them

I mean no, of course I didn't - otherwise I'd have sold my shares. What is flawed about the comments? I was just highlighting statements from the results which I found concerning. I would have expected to see revenue per passenger +5% at least for example, so (for me) +3.1% is not a good result. But like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

Seems like I'm the only one who felt these results were only OK. There was more 'jam tomorrow' than I expected, particularly lower DPS than I had in mind. I liked the commitment to return excess capital to shareholders below a stated leverage target. I was particularly concerned to see that passenger revenue per ASK was flat in real terms, and the realisation that the amount of money being spent on the fleet is still really significant. It seems to me that IAG has not yet proved it will earn a return on this investment. Also the direct statement that they don't expect flying levels to return to pre-COVID is the first time I've seen an airline state this.

I hope I'm wrong, but I can see the price flat to falling. This wasn't the step change from the 2023 results that I'd been hoping for. Share price was £1.80 ish this time last year, post 2023 results announcement. Is the business really worth twice as much today? (for context, this is my largest position, and I've been invested since privatisation)

I mean let's face it, this whole process has been a complete shambles.

For argument's sake, let's say the price was £13.50 before they announced the placement. I haven't checked, from memory it was in this ballpark. Tennyson responds to an email (quoted below) that the placing was over-subscribed. Well, no sh*t. It was done at a 15% discount to the pre-announcement price. That level of discount in this kind of placing is embarrassing, you'd expect maybe 5%. The offer should have been over-subscribed multiple times. It also suggests that the overall project is dilutive to shareholder value. I've not run the numbers, I think OB argued that it was accretive for EPS. They really struggled to get this away, and I expect the bookrunners are nursing some losses on this one.

And today the price is c.10% below the placing price, so investors who subscribed are already materially underwater, alongside existing investors who are down 25% or thereabouts. Whoever advised on the acquisition should be getting fired.

Just when I thought DEC was getting their act together, they drop this t*rd in the water pipe. Really frustrating.

Not sure, looks like Jupiter subscribed for about 220k shares. Their % holding prior to the announcement was 5.01%, which based on 51.3m shares in issue equates to 2.57m shares. In the announcement they say they own 2.79m shares, so about 220k higher. The % has fallen presumably because there are 8.5m more shares in issue, and the disclosure requirements are tied to % ownership thresholds (so dropping below 5% was the trigger), rather than number of shares held.

Isn't this just a Greenshoe option for 10% of the placement? Pretty standard I think, either to raise more funds or stabilise the price.

If the books are oversubscribed, why haven't they put the placement price in the RNS. That's just odd.

Likewise complete now with HL, thus ending my brief flirtation with I3E. Hoping for better things elsewhere. @conrad02 I sold mine entirely at the first available opportunity, didn't feel the need to wait and see what happened. GTE is not a stock I would have invested in independently, so in that circumstance I'd just get out at any price.

Likewise surprised on HL, particularly as they were prompt on the shares hitting accounts. It's frustrating, like others I want to put the money to work elsewhere, and right now someone else is earning interest on it...

Ref Halifax, that's shambolic, the shares should have been credited ages ago, the deadline for that was the 1st November I think?

Not helped by the fact that the mix and match RNS contained a typo - 270 shares instead of 207 at the end - but I got credited with the correct number of shares by HL. NB it will be the registrar doing this, not your broker. I wouldn't be holding out for a statement, you should do your own calculations, and if it's not what you expect, be prepared to explain why to your broker, if you want them to investigate.

@callit they are all the same class of share, it's just that they are capable of being traded on multiple exchanges. It depends on where your broker is able to trade. They may only be able to trade on the LSE (though I'd be surprised if this were the case); or they may choose only to trade on the LSE because it's cheaper for them. They should be able to tell you the venue (and best price available) if you call them.

Separately, I'm now assuming that they are waiting for the dividend to be paid before crediting accounts with the cash, as I'm still not in receipt of funds.

So for info I sold my holding at US$6.75 over the phone with HL, which was £5.08 per share net of expenses

On the US$6.71 price, prior to the deal I noticed that HL only offered trading in the US listed shares (or TSX, can't remember) but not the LSE listed shares. Since the transaction suggested that we would get LSE shares, I was worried about whether I could transact them via HL. So it seems good news if they're letting us trade via the US, because the price is better. If it's phone dealing, it's £20 trading fee, but there's no extra FX charge.

No idea what is going on with HL. I have GTE shares showing in my account (but no communication from HL to let me know), but I can't trade them. And no funds from the cash piece yet.