RE: My guess on the state of the takeover24 Sep 2024 08:50
For my part, I don't see what has changed in the period since the offer was announced. Rather, it seems to have gone from bad to worse as we have both seen and learned what an absolute pile of dog mess GTE is.
If the offer fails, will the share price fall back? Of course, this is self-evident - the current price is inflated by the presence of the offer.
The question I asked myself, is what would I rather own in six months? My existing holding in I3E, which whilst not perfect has good financial flexibility, is exposed to commodities which I expect to increase in value, has relatively low execution risk; or some cash which I would invest elsewhere and a small (and therefore expensive to transact on), illiquid bunch of shares in a company with low quality assets, higher execution risk, too much leverage, and higher risk.
The value of the offer is now well below where the i3e share price has been in the last 12 months. It is opportunistic and low quality.
The offer price was launched at 13.92p. Do I think the i3e share price could rise above this in six months to a year? 100%. Do I think the alternative would be worth more than that in six months? 0%.
So for me it's a no-brainer. This is a terrible deal, and should be soundly rejected.