rahmed19 Feb 2015 12:15
There are a few points to consider when financing comes through. First off, you are right that financing 'can' be good news,as this shows investment companies have solid faith to get their money back. At face value, the rates here are not too high, and there's talk of 12p, which is 50% higher than where we are at now. Who'd complain with that??
The key problems however are in 2 areas:
A) WHO is investing,
B) WHY we need investing.
WHO: For those of us in the know, Yorkville represent a cut throat short term focused investment company. They usually charge a conbination of obscene interest rates with highly discounted ordinary shares (fortunately we aren't too bad this time). Yorkville sell into SP rises, typically knocking 20% off the SP in just a matter of days, and then take out their next trench of shares at the following lows (at a discount, so pushing it even lower). They then wait a few weeks and repeat the process. The result is essentially a stagnated SP which last time took almost 2 years (that's a guesstimate) to get away. Even with several hundred percent revenue increases, our SP couldn't sustain a rise, as Yorkville kept selling into it.
WHY: We aren't pursuing new interests. We are in cost saving mode and only drilling when required... That means costs shouldn't be high! So if costs arent high, then why do we need the money?? Without a clear statement otherwise, objective posturing would suggest that our cashflow is under pressure. This, combined with the fact that we aren't drilling which will result in lower boe per month as our wells production naturally drops, suggests that unless the industry gets itself in order, our 3-6month outlook appears bleak.
With this in mind. We do need to remember that at least part of our production is hedged at 80+. We also need to remember our CEOs response to potential takeover questions with a blunt 'hells no' (paraphrased). So whilst our ST outlook isn't great, CAZA will soar again....if you're willing to wait out the storm