Member Info for JSB1989

It’s appalling by the board. The board are so laissez-faire with their approach to managing the company. I understand that Vedanta and Seaport have to run their own course given they are independent but the company has $365 million in the bank and doing nothing with it. Biotech is at the bottom of a cycle so why not go make some deals as there are bargains out there.

Jim Cramer quote here (pinch of salt) about BMS:

Bristol Myers is the most attractive drug stock, other than Eli Lilly. I think COBENFY is going to be one of the largest drugs of all time because it’s going into schizophrenia. It’s a great drug for the brain, really incredibly hard. I do a lot of stuff. I can tell you that this company really has the silver bullet for schizophrenia, which is one of the worst diseases in the world. It can be expanded beyond that. It’s a multi-billion-dollar drug, and it is going to be great. While you wait, 4.5% yield, own Bristol Myers.”

He has been very poor and evidently he has failed convinced investors about the story. The company are cash rich and are just sitting on it. Cash burn at the moment must be quite low given that the only founded entity in trials at present is LYT-200. I don't think we will find out about LYT-100 until Q3.

BMS could put up $400million and buy Puretech for £2.50 per share ($765 million - $365 cash in the bank). They would retain those precious Cobenfy royalties and milestones in the process and could divest other investments down the line. If they don’t do it, someone else will. Unfortunately as this drift continues, so does the potential buyout price.

The ingredients are there, but unfortunately based on the track record, the chefs aren’t. Management must do better.

Patiently waiting here but there is a lack of direction. The fireside chat will likely be a reiteration of the presentation and previous chat in November-December time.

Awesome work bringing down your average dallo. If I had available funds, it would be going into Puretech.

Seaport IPO would be a game changer. Puretech’s stake at the IPO likely to be equal or in excess of our market cap.

Dallo - the volume is minuscule and very quiet from the company. It certainly is a waiting game.

$10 million sales in Q4 for Cobenfy. Launch in late October. Let’s see what the scale up is like in the next two to three quarterly results.

Golfnuts - I don’t think you are missing anything. The efficacy data was fantastic for LYT-100. I think the safety data disappointed the market as certain areas didn’t show improvement. It only needs to maintain a similar safety profile to the SOC as long as the efficacy data continues from P2.

I think that Puretech brings a number of shots of potential winners and one winner is at least equal to the current market cap and potential more. There are numerous scenarios this year where the SP could be 2-3x of where it is now. I’m hypothesising here (yet realistic), big pharma are hunting for asset and Seaport has drawn a lot of attention and could be bought early at $1.5 billion, also with 2 FDA fast tracks is LYT-200 in AML and a reasonable number would be $300-500 million at this stage. Any of these outcomes would be massive for Puretech.

LYT-100 is a valuable asset for Puretech, however the timeline if they go it alone would be a minimum of three years before the drug goes to market. A P3 start in Q4 2025, would likely readout in Q1-Q2 2027 and then FDA approval is another 9-12 months down the line. That would bring it to market in early 2028.

There are possibilities that the asset is bought pre phase 3 or a major partners on the trial to derisk the asset.

In the meantime, there are plenty of near term catalysts to keep us very interested.

Volume non existent. At least the constant selling down has ceased. UBS have been the broker for a month and hopefully well on the way to selling the story to potential buyers.

Maybe some macro changes with AI stock sell off after the Deepseek threat. Healthcare and pharma stocks looks to be an obvious sector rotation given the value on offer.

Good to see some positive movement at last. Hoping we have seen the bottom and UBS are able to share the story and more II’s realise the potential here.

Vedanta could be a sleeping giant. If its P3 is successful, I would expect a major to swallow it up for a big chunk. I can’t see it listing this late on with one year to go until VE303 readout. They have other P2 trials in UC so they may have another series of fundraising but Puretech will maintain a very substantial holder through to these milestones.

Great find on Cobenfy. Royalties for Puretech if we take 10 years of $5 billion sales let’s say from 2029-2039 would be $600 million or £500 million which is 1.5x the current market cap. BMS could mop us up very easily and save themselves a lot down the line.

One year of $10 billion in sales is $160 million for Puretech.

Let’s see what madness tomorrow brings!

Another multi year low put in today! I contacted IR and they sent links to the new presentation and said that the company updated at the JPM conference. So unless you watched that, you wouldn't know that the cash balance was $35 million more than guidance. It smells to me of manipulation and cheap offer coming in very shortly.

If you are entering at 137p, you will make a decent return in a short time frame in my opinion. There needs to be some hand played in the next two to three months.

The radio silence of the year end update could indicate a bid incoming. Companies often listen to bids and don’t RNS them until a formal offer has been received or agreed.

140p to 240p is a 70% premium and that would be a going premium rate for a takeout price. Given that 65% of shareholders wanted to give up their shares for tender offer, it would be a price that most would take. I didn’t take the tender offer as I felt the company was worth at least 400p last summer. I think it’s worth even more now after the Seaport raise and the LYT-100 results. Unfortunately us smaller shareholders won’t have much of a say in the matter.