Member Info for JRDC

Its like the smart watch fad, every electronics manufacturer had to have one. Majority are crap but some stand out. Innova stood out as they were only ones who could produce enough, Avactas stands out as it is the most accurate S protein AN test and uses affimers, ODX/Mologic stands out as its a home grown UK test, albeit not gold standard, will be interesting to see what novacyts USP is, perhaps best N protein test or a tie up with a big pharma (roches test is a bit crap). Given the UK is likely to choose one single test for consistency the EU and USA are key markets

We're making £10m a month so far, oriens, we don't know what we've been making this last quarter as GM wont tell us. If next trading update is less than £10m I cant see the SP going up.

The release of the LFT over next few weeks could help us back towards £4

I just hope the next RNS doesnt say " we believe we can exert out contractual rights" again, just sort the damn dispute out one way or the other.

Probably asked this before but cant remember the answer, do Medusa only have exclusivity for private sale in the UK or in all regions? If its just UK, and avacta are about to sign an agreement with HMG to 'sell' to Joe Public (even if actually distributed FoC) which would effectively side step medusa and mean zero chance of direct to consumer sales in the UK, I'd be beating Al around the face with the contract he signed demanding 50% of the fee. Or would they be taken on board as a manufacturer as a sweetener? Or would the test effectively being mologics at this stage mean its not an issue (for now)?

The best test has always been the one you could buy, and buy in sufficient quantities. I'm hoping the next RNS is additional manufacturing partners, followed by EU approval. If UK does have first refusal I'd expect there is a time limit element, then again this might only apply to the mologic branded version of our test, when we bring it all in house maybe Al can give 2 fingers to DHSC and sell to ze germans unless gov sign on the dotted line pronto.

Don't care, we'll sell to Europe and later in the Summer, the US. Its the Govt problem If they want to go with an inferior test, wouldn't surprise me if they stick with innova.

The aim over next 12 months is to make enough money to fund the cancer therapies and future drug targets for clinical trials, promote affimers in other partnerships. We'll do that with or without being the 'chosen one', might take a few extra months that's all. If we're in discussion with 25 markets in the EU, given that the UK got one over on them they be keen to tie up some EU wide agreement, that really would make bojo and govt look like chumps if they got in there first

I do wonder if it hadn't been for the twitter post would avacta have chased things up and discovered the application form with 2nd class stamp was still on Julie's porch window sill hidden under a domino's menu.

Utter incompetence by this 'agency' and mologic, although not surprising, anything that can delay our test from commercial launch seems to occur.

When our test does launch I'm expecting an RNS to say deliveries are delayed as there's roadworks right outside the gate.

Why have people been expecting it with days? MHRA themselves say up to 30 days, just because one company had it registered in 14 days or so doesnt mean Avacta will. In fact, based on experience here with deadlines, I'll be surprised if we hear within that time frame. It will come when it comes, doesnt sound like anything is going to happen with sovereign test decision until end of June anyway, so no rush.

I take it that they're going to start actively pushing them more now there is a bigger portfolio to choose from. Whereas the 1st gen pcr sold itself and they struggled to keep up with demand I think they'll need to do some legwork with versalab.

Ps, we're about to enter H2, so it is immediately

I'm hoping that private sales in next quarter update are still strong, dread to think what will happen to the SP if 'only' £10m this time, which would still justify £5+ imo. Given what GM has said previously I'm not expecting much.

Shame robbo and the other chap who went up to medusa didn't get to see how the test was performed to confirm.

Yeah annoyingly nova look quite ****ed right now.

Well this share is turning out to be a waste of 12 months. What is it with GM and refusing to give figures? If he said 'potentially up to £200m reduction', even if worst case, it would let us shareholders make an informed decision. If they're going to take them to court, then ****ing do it. This is going sub £3 imo.

I can imagine the wording of the next RNS right now.

"We're pleased to announce a best in class lateral flow test test with s&s of 100%/100%. Unfortunately I don't think we'll sell many".

Pretty sure manchester airport use primerdesign Q machines for PCR (via fit to fly), certainly did with Boots, so would make sense that novacyt are trialling their LFT there for CE and q2 launch. Wouldn't surprise me if theirs is on the market before ours either...

What manipulation? We're part of a framework that May or may not provide additional sales. While good news and long overdue, the SP needs needs figures and conclusion of the dispute.

GMs reluctance to give any sort of revenue prediction is what is keeping the SP in the gutter. If he said we had £20m in private sales this quarter, and expect similar going in Q3 and q4, hello £10 again.

MHRA update their website of approved devices/manufacturers every Monday, maybe we'll find out the same time as Avacta do

https://aic.mhra.gov.uk/era/pdr.nsf/Search?SearchView&Query=/era/pdr.nsf/Search?SearchView&Query=[ManName]Contains(%22avacta%22)&SearchOrder=4

And if you want to look at possible competitors in the cancer and targeted treatment space, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals who are about to enter stage 2 clinical trials over summer with some promising albeit likely expensive cancer therapies, are bringing in under £100m in revenue, burning through cash so operating at a loss, but mcap of over $7bn. Probably cheap if things work out for them. Who knows where avacta could be in 18 - 24 months time

Porky must be close to triggering a tr1 with all these topups. I'm sticking with 4 figures for now, if the released test is at least as good as mologics , which isn't a terrible test even if the Avacta lot think so, then it could be a winner. I'm hoping azn or someone with clout are working on it with us. GM might grudgingly post an RNS with independent s&s over next few months to keep us in the loop.

Can't see any further acquisitions until dispute sorted, that's holding everything up.

They're the ones published so far, I don't know what the delay is in terms of emailing, registering online or faxing an EOI to it being published, but I'd suggest applying as close to the deadline as possible so as to not give competitors the heads up, so I imagine more will appear over the next week or two.

This is one of our competitors for the bid:

https://www.facebook.com/DonFossEnterprises/
Reseller of other crap tests most likely

Biomed I cant see reference to an antigen LFT, only elisa antibody and PCR but i imagine most news will be in korean

Mylan/Viatris - big company, recently merged, most likely competitor, again cant see any reference to a LFT

How much is the contract worth, half a mill?