Member Info for jpmman

The reported loss may have been negative, but this is not the same as cash because it takes into account non-cash impairments on the value of properties/investments. More important are figures like the recurring pretax profits of over £10m, the diluted net asset values (around £50m) and the overall level of gearing. As things stand, there is evidence that these key indicators may have reached their floor/minimums as business is beginning to pick up. I agree however that the dilutive effect of this rights issue is a problem for existing shareholders that cannot be overlooked. Hoping that the 'true' value of the business will somehow become evident to potential buyers isn't going to cut it, when the overriding issue is that the number of shares in issue is being almost doubled by offering shares at 24p. The message this sends to shareholders about the underlying value of the company when the share price yesterday was £1 is pretty terrible.

To be honest, the time to assess risk should probably be before you buy shares, not after. There is a risk of failure with any business - just look at Lehmans as an example. Here the risk of failure is greater because the company is highly geared and must meet stringent (though recently relaxed) financial covenants with its lenders. Is the company going bust? It is a question of probability and I cannot give you an accurate percentage....but is it greater than, say, Marks & Spencers or Severn Trent? Almost certainly, yes. But with greater risk comes greater potential return - which is the reason this share price is moving significantly more than those of companies like M&S or Severn Trent. If you want greater security, I would look elsewhere.

As with any share price predictions, your guess is as effectively as good as mine. As an ex equity analyst myself, I know full well how useless price targets and predictions can be. I can only say that personally, I believe the stock is significantly undervalued if one believes, as I do, that the retail and associated property sectors will recover quite quickly - whereas the current share price heavily discounts this possibility. I've no doubt the stock will continue to be volatile - moving significantly on small volumes. I am ignoring short term volatility and holding on to see what happens when the economy recovers. Good luck.

I wouldn't worry too much - the share price may be falling, but the volumes are tiny. A company like this doesn't suddenly lose £2m of intrinsic value on the back of a dozen people selling £30-40k's worth of shares. More importantly, the positive news flow is creating some momentum and more medium-long term buyers will be on board than some of the short term opportunists you see exiting now.

I am also watching this company and have a small stake at a price not dissimilar to the current price. I am bemused by the movement over the last week or so. Lots of trades all of a sudden also makes me nervous that there are insiders trading ahead of announcements, but here I wonder if the sale of Brixton by Segro last week at such a discount to its book value wasn't the trigger. I like to think the shares will recover as the general economy and market ticks up, presuming that they are able to tread water financially in the mean time. Lack of news flow sees the volume of trades for this business all but dry up - so I wouldn't worry unduly about what seem like significant swings from day to day if they are associated with very low numbers of buys or sells. When the company is able to show some real direction through the current difficulties, I think you will see a definite movement one way or the other - but until then it may continue to drift.