Member Info for jpmman

Great tip! Already up over 4% with a 9% spread.......taking off!!!

They've grown revenue about 2 or 3%. This is not a lot and certainly not 5x. They have turned the big losses into an operating profit but there is a long way to go. I am sure they will give it a good go - you don't give away £50k/mth for nothing, but I will be surprised if they make a great success of this. Fundamentally, the product is not very easy to sell in my view - it doesn't have a huge market and people don't want to pay large amounts either for the service. It's notable that most sales are made in the US though - and they will benefit from the drop in Sterling if nothing else.

haven't cancelled the agreement, yet, I agree - but only signed it 6 months ago - you'd expect them to probably give it a year to see if they can make it work. They are big enough to give this a go, fail, and move on without having a significant impact, if that is what happens. Not sure where you get 5x revenue from (Catalis turnaround). Their sales are lower now than they were 5/6 years ago - they've had a horrendous time through the recession and are just now beginning to pick up. Will be interesting to see the results either way on this one. Very risky and entirely dependent on Catalis as a third party to make a success of it at the moment, in my opinion.

Why look at the trades at 7.5p earlier and not the most recent trades like the one just now of 85,000 shares at 8.5p! More likely next stop 9p than 7p based on the latest trades.

watching this drop when it has massive and genuine value, especially when elsewhere there are huge P&D exercises on the go (see TPS) where there is absolutely nothing credible to back up the share price whatsoever. Value will out but it does't make for easy watching.

MMs have just raised the ask to 40p, no significant buying - they've just widened the spread. I think there's been 1 tiny trade today. For 6 months to June last year operating loss was £500k. Even with improvements to this, you will still be looking at an annual loss rate of say £600-800k with no change to revenues. Bear in mind that revenue was only £250k for those 6 months!!!! (not a good ratio of revenue to cost) The retainer from Catalis every month will maybe, just maybe cover your operating costs at £600k/yr. Catalis will have to sell double or triple what the company itself has ever managed before you can begin to say the business is worth more than say £2m market cap based on my rough calcs. And that is a tough ask I think for a product which fundamentally just isn't that popular. Not saying they can't do it, just the odds are stacked against them in my opinion.

Miningman.... I would be very surprised if this company comes back from the brink. You're kidding yourself if you think the share price could triple/multi-bag any time soon. Revenues are simply too low to sustain the cost base (even trimmed under the new CEO) - such that they are now fully dependent on Catalis' ability to sell in order to have enough money to cover costs from one month to another. They had barely £100k at the last interim point and that can only have got worse unless Catalis has performed some miracles. The bottom line is the product isn't proving popular or profitable enough. I would be surprised if they keep the listing even if the company keeps going. Forking out £200k for listing and associated costs just isn't worth it IMHO when you are not going to be able to tap the market for funds at the current share price. They need some big partners with deeper pockets, and in fact - probably just someone (e.g. a Google/Facebook) to buy them who can make better use of the product. The only hope here is for the company to pull off some major partnership arrangement or for Catalis to sell bucket loads. All in my opinion, good luck.

Agree that the current news should be enough to give confidence and support the price (at much higher levels than this too!). Patience required I guess. Company would do well to get some more institutional interest - although it can't be long before some fund managers snaffle some shares off the back of their own research. Absolute bargain.

When you say, 'news is upon us', are you referring to the report on resources for the rest of their area? I thought this was due in H1 2013, so could be a few months yet.

AIM doesn't attract long term investors - quite the opposite. Despite the glaringly obvious value here, people sell up or shy away because they are only interested in stocks where something is happening every day. So much for efficient market hypotheses. A company such as SKR won't begin to realise its true value for a couple of years when the mining really starts, and it's unlikely there will be very regular updates to keep people interested. However, I believe those who hang on will be very well rewarded. Incidentally, someone mentioned something before about the discount rate in the NPV calcs. All such rates will be nominal, but that's ok because the forecasts will build in inflation too - so completely consistent. 10% is a common rate to use for such illustrations of value, although arguably the rates should be adjusted to better match the market risks of the company in question. Rather than the discount rate, the focus should really be around the potential for either the revenues or costs being off from those predicted......I get some comfort from SKR's report using a higher level of diligence to support banking needs (as opposed to the more flaky pre-feasibility studies out there on other projects).

So they've sold it at pretty much book value. It reduces the total debt situation slightly and improves strategic focus. I guess it also suggests to the market that the accounting values may not be far off market values, i.e. the discount to NAV is currently way too high (NAV per share was 53p in June). These are all positives, but in the grand scheme of things this is a minority asset within the overall portfolio. It doesn't change the general economic climate or the level of consumer footfall, or the rental yields, or the occupancy rates. Until there are significant changes on these KPIs, I can't see the stock taking off. That said, this news does help get CAL on the radar and, like I say, it does highlight the very big discount to NAV which (IMHO) is unjustified.

Capital & Regional plc announces that it has received a proposal to acquire its units in the X-Leisure Fund and its 50% stake in X-Leisure Limited. Discussions are at an advanced stage. Should an offer for the X-Leisure Fund units be forthcoming, the transaction would be subject to the approval of unit holders. In addition, due to the size of the potential disposal, the Company would be required to seek shareholder approval. Further information will be provided in due course.

Sentiment clearly against property plays like CAL because the price is now at a big discount to NAV. On any valuation measure, CAL looks undervalued to me, e.g. a P/E of 6-7x looks pretty unchallenging (based on recurring income alone). After taking the pain of selling assets to reduce their gearing over the last few years, the fact they bought the Kingfisher centre recently seems to have been overlooked by the market. This is a signal that they (and their banks) are positive/confident about the balance sheet position now and trading outlook. Quite frustrated that the company isn't doing more to get the message out via their brokers and RNS updates etc.

in this business, but can't help but think that any minute now they will need more cash. Only had £350k at 31 Dec and burning about £1-1.2m a year - so unless there has been a dramatic turnaround in sales to improve profitability, they'll be tapping up shareholders any second now for more money to keep going. As a result, I see significant dilution ahead. Any thoughts?

The news this week is very positive. In fact, I have thought that the stock has been undervalued for some time. Certainly the sell off down from 39/40p over the last fortnight has been unwarranted, in my view. Despite the downturn, the company has managed to really turned itself around and its gearing level is now prudent. The only question is whether a double dip of sorts may force more retailers to the wall - thereby affecting rent and occupancy levels. I think the difference between now and 2008 is that a lot of the retailers on the edge have been weeded out and I see a change in the typical Mall tenants towards those which are more resilient to any more economy wide issues (e.g. 99p stores). The brokers reiteration of their outperform rating is also comforting in this respect.

Sorry to correct you, but the shares have not been above 32 since May this year, not last year. They've been well, well above 32 in the last 12 months. All in all it's an encouraging move. I think people are starting to see the progress, particularly following the last earnings announcement and the raft of good asset sales.

I would agree. They are doing all the right things, selling portions of the portfolio as good deals come around in order to reduce their gearing in line with that agreed with the banks. Meanwhile the commercial property sector appears to have bottomed out and is showing signs of recovery. On this basis I think the share price should have found its floor now and indeed on many other metrics (triple net assets etc), the company looks oversold. As more evidence of the market recovery comes through, expect the gearing in the company to benefit the share price - as the amount of equity in the business rises quickly as property prices recover. I am in this one for the long haul and feel it is only a matter of time before it begins to take off.

Evolution securities initiated coverage with a 50p price target on 8 December 2009. "We initiate coverage on Capital & Regional with an ADD recommendation and a target of 50p. The current rise in property values will benefit the most highly geared vehicles, and C&R’s co-investing asset management model is nothing if not geared through its three funds. This leverage will reduce rather than remove the structural balance sheet issues but in the current market conditions we believe the shares offer a trading opportunity." Personally, I believe the recent decline in the share price reflects a general lack of interest and poor sentiment around this sector, rather than a reflection of the underlying prospects and value of CAL. The business is highly geared, and as noted by Evolution, will mean that any uptick in property prices will feed through as much greater improvement in the firm's net asset value. As such, this is something of a waiting game. We're waiting for more signs that commercial property prices and tenancy rates are improving. When these feed through, as I believe they will in the first half of next year, there will be a flow of equity back into the commercial property sector which has up till has been shown very little investor support. The prospects for short term share price improvement here are very significant, in my opinion. As such, I am not overly concerned by the share price weakening recently - as it is on the back of very low share volumes. When volumes return, the current share price will quickly be eclipsed. Good luck all.

I was also surprised by the scale of the decline in CAL this week. Appreciate it may be led by the general market, but seemed quite overdone. I have great confidence in this stock given the refinancing is now out of the way and pretty much all the bad news is built into the share price already re: level of tenancies etc. I can only see improvement from hereon in as the economy picks up. Sure it will be a bumpy ride at times, but the company's current share price reflects nothing of the potential upside when the sector returns to some level of normality. Good luck all.

I would agree with your comments. I may have misread the press statement regarding the number of shares to be issued, as on reflection - 280m is about right given aiming to raise £69m at 24p/share. This is worse than I'd thought. I would suggest that the £1 share price had largely built in the prospect that the company had worked through its funding difficulties without the need for any further equity issues. With hindsight, I for one had not therefore appreciated the funding the business actually required or therefore the risk that was still present.