Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I am out. No response from Derrick. The whole thing makes no sense. onvthe face of it a profitable business massively undervalued. Only if they started paying all earnings out as cash dividends would I be interested again. Totally mismanaged and my fear was that next you'll hear of a management or major shareholder buy out at a small premium to the current share price. Meanwhile all the AIM investors will have been fleeced. Lesson learnt.
I have emailed Derrick and will await a response. Today's drop is the penultimate nail in the coffin for me and Derrick's response may be the last one. What I find incredible is the lack of any action which would demonstrate a commitment to supporting their own share price and investor base.
I actually think it's a good company with solid cash flow and massively undervalued. Problem here is the way it's being marketed and handled on the stock market. They have to do a lot more to give investors the confidence to invest in an illiquid, Chinese business with expansion plans. If I had an influential vote right now I would tell the company to delay the expansion capex and direct all free cash to dividends. This would give me as an ordinary shareholder a huge capital return and allow me to recoup losses on the share price. It would also send the market a signal as to the cash generative capacity of the business. I find it shocking frankly how the board have seemingly done nothing to address shareholder's concerns. A couple of non execs with loads of Asian investment experience - how is this being used to improve shareholder value??
No volume and share price has dropped nearly 20% this week. Looks like market makers have got bored and dropped the price to attract some volume. Trouble is that awareness of the company is too low for anyone to start buying, plus the ongoing liquidity issue and general caution over investing in a Chinese company is putting private investors off. The company and/or its broker really need to pull their fingers out in my opinion. They are currently doing very little to ensure value being generated operationally is felt by the shareholders. Where are the regular news updates? What are the non-execs doing to sort this problem? Why not starting paying significant cash dividends (not scrip) - this might help give investors more comfort about the business model.
P/E of 2.5x, a new facility to double capacity being constructed in 2013 (land paid for out of cash already), never lost a customer, EBITDA up 13%, made £20m profit after tax, dividend yield of 6%, market cap of £54m, cash balance of £30m, cash flow from operations of over £20m/year. This sounds like an undervalued business to me and yet the share price continues to fall. No idea what the company's advisors are up to, or why their larger investors aren't hammering the board for not addressing the share price performance. If this wasn't China then this business would be acquired in a heartbeat - the payback period is less than 3 years!
to lose your shirt today. Regardless of whether a short term deal is done to secure debt to support cash flow needs, the outlook is not positive and the equity value has undoubtedly fallen. There is a great risk that the company will continue to need further financing support if market conditions do not improve, and with that comes the prospect that equity holders will lose control of the business. The shares are feeling more and more like a call option on future success and so should be priced accordingly with such a high degree of risk. All the best.
Welcome to financial markets and moreover, AIM. You won't get independent brokers bothering to write research on small companies - it's invariably done by those who have a vested interest already. It's not a scam - it's just the way the market works and most investors accept that the broker's notes are part pure marketing/part reality. They do bear some reputational risk that should deter them from outlandish recommendations I guess, but you'd be generally hard pushed to find anything but 'buy' ratings. Put this aside for a minute though and just focus on some basic metrics. The P/E ratio is dropping as the company's earnings climb and the share price falls. At 3.6x, this compares to the average FTSE all share P/E of 14x. Quite a gap for what is a highly profitable and growing business. The thing going against it is clearly that it's Chinese. I haven't quite worked out why the market seems to be so averse to Chinese companies - maybe something about fears around government control, corruption, market bubbles? Not sure, but on paper this price represents an absolute steal in my view. I just don't know what it will take for others to buy.
As far as I can see only about £200k sold at c.140p - not a massive sell out by existing shareholders given the market cap of c£75m. Yet the share price seemed to tank. General day to day trading volumes is low, but hoping that this dip in price will attract buyers as the valuation now seems very compelling.
Director Dealings China Chaintek United Co., Ltd (AIM: CTEK), the provider of logistics services to manufacturers of consumer goods in China, announces that William Knight (Non-Executive Chairman), Stuart Lane (Non-Executive Director) and Derrick Wong (Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer) have today purchased ordinary shares of no par value in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 140 pence per Ordinary Share. Details of the transactions and the directors' holdings are set out in the table below: Directors Number of Ordinary Shares Purchased Ordinary Shares held Following Purchases Holding in the Company (%) Stuart Lane Non-Exec 11,000 11,000 0.020 William Knight Chairman 5,000 8500 0.016 Derrick Wong CFO 5,000 5,000 0.009 The Company was also informed today by Daniel Stewart & Co plc that yesterday it had completed a series of open-market share sales, conducted on behalf of existing ordinary shareholders at a price of 140 pence (the "Placing"). Commenting on the Placing, Mr Xu Meijin, Executive Director of ChainTek, said: "The Board would like to thank the early stage investors in ChainTek for their past support. We believe this Placing will strengthen the Company's shareholder list. The Board continues to view the future with confidence and looks forward to working with our new shareholders, as well as our remaining existing shareholders, to drive the Company's growth and improve the liquidity of share trading on the AIM market."
Is why the company still, still hasn't put the accounts together. They have had a ridiculous amount of time now and knew full well they had to file by today, but failed to do so.. Even with the mistake of not informing companies house correctly about their change of year end, that would not be such an issue, if at all, had they bothered to file some accounts by today - 1 month after they were due originally. I'm afraid this doesn't bode we'll at all for executing their strategy if they can't do the basics properly. Pretty amateurish.
As my last message said - Burberry are a totally different fish to the other clowns in the luxury sector like Mulberry. Unlike them and LVMH, Burberry's sales are massively up again across all regions, including Europe - and their focus on China is paying (literally) big dividends. I expect the share price to recover back to £14 now which is where they were before starting to be dragged down by everyone else's poor performance.
Alexios "My gut" is telling me people here don't give a toss what you predicted. If you're so brilliant at prediction, how come you're still stalking chat forums like this and haven't made your millions yet?
What makes you think there is only 1 prize for Goal Millions? Previously, when this game was run as Goal Dash by another company, it had multiple prizes (6 correct wins £1million, 5 correct wins £5000, 4 correct wins £100, 3 correct wins £10). Not saying it will be exactly the same, just that it could be. Sponsorship & advertising - we don't really know how this is going to work yet, so again I think it would be fairer to hold off on judgement. As I say, Goal Dash was the same game run a couple of years ago and they partnered with The Mirror amongst others. I think though they will use a B2B approach first and then look to more direct marketing. I understand why you might be negative on Goal Millions though having said this. I've said before (and been criticised) - the fact is that it looks like it's going to be exactly the same as Goal Dash but marketed maybe through different channels. Goal Dash was not a success at all and I agree it just doesn't have universal appeal. They need to get it on a betting slip somehow for people to add like the lotteries 'plus 5' but electronically so you don't have to worry about keeping the slip and checking the results.
Going to general meeting in 4th April? A good chance to ask questions I'd have thought.
The insurance cost will be tailored to the number of entries each week. If they get 1 million entries, then you're covering yourself for a 1 in 14 chance of a winner, so in theory it would cost (1,000,000)/14 plus the insurer's margin (in the simplest terms). So roughly £80k. Sounds a lot, but don't forget that you've just taken in £1m of cash from the entries!!! Basically the margins here are massive, but to make money you need to get the volumes in to cover your marketing costs.
Odds on Goal Millions are also 1 in 14 million. 6 numbers from 49 - exactly the same as national lottery. You could say it's worse value (given limited to £1m jackpot) but then there is an element of skill too I think in the choosing of teams you think will score quickest - so overall, not that as bad as it seems.
It's simply because the stock is now so illiquid. Noone is trading, so for a MM to take the stock off you they are taking a risk because they may not be able to sell it on easily. The reverse can be true though, i.e. if there are a few buys then you'd expect the price to increase quite quickly. However, for reasons we've discussed before - I think people are steering well clear of here until we get an operational update to assess what's happening to sales and most importantly, cash.
Burberry's sales mix by geography is totally different to Mulberry. In fact the similarities end with their names ending in 'berry'. Mulberry had a terrible 2012 - unlike Burberry, and so news of a slowdown in London for them is hardly something unexpected. Mulberry generate over 60% of their sales in the UK and less than 15% in Asia; Burberry generate 33% of sales in Europe (so a fraction of that in London) and 36% in Asia (and growing). If Asians stay at home to spend instead of London - Burberry are well placed, unlike Mulberry. As things stand Burberry has lost £235 million of value today.....makes sense of the back of this news relating to another company with totally different dynamics? No.
Despite today's rise - still a big 40% discount to market value of their underlying assets which is disappointing. Decent dividend c.2.5% yield. A great share for the longer term as Brazil's growth continues but I do hope that the company does something to narrow the implied discount.....e.g. start buying back shares or issuing bigger dividends to demonstrate the disproportionate value on offer to us minority shareholders.
SKR have not missed a deadline. A broker indicated that they might produce an updated report by today it seems, but this is entirely out of the hands of the company. Not as if even the brokers timeline was definite either, so pretty harsh to start calling missed deadlines on anyone.