Member Info for JP2000

If anyone's interested I've just set up a Blencowe group on Telegram

https://**************wdYMANxZvpA1MGQ0

the cake company has a forward PE of 21 and I'd say it was just a tad overvalued by a factor 1-2 times

Condor presentation was really interesting, just a case of finding the right entry point.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-investor-evening--webinar-210721

GKP, its $0.12 divi not 12p so the net gap is in the region 22p and its due to superior growth in the next 6 months.

FY20 36k, current 43.6k, target 55k so EBITDA for 2022 looks extremely positive.

Genel: FY20 32k, Q1 33k, target 35k?

A buyback at £2 is hardly value for money unless you believe oil will hit +$100/b (always possible).

As you say 'small cap' is an issue, the combined cap of GKP & GENL would be be c£850-900m which is FTSE250 and that would attract tracker funds and a bit more interest. What's stopping this M&A?

I can't help thinking the dividend is part of the problem because the trading volumes are low which exacerbates the ex-div price effect and G pays one of the highest divis. Whereas if they paid monthly or quarterly the ex-div drop would be smaller and there's less incentive to dip in and out.

The market has got wise to G so if the divi is 10p the ex div price drop is tending to be +20p. You might as well forgo the divi and buy back in a week or two later.

Cash position c£10m so enterprise value is c£25m but the biggest attraction here are the growth prospects.

Re divi: stockopedia is saying the yield on this is 8% which seems extraordinary for a FTSE250 company, is this too good to be true?

$0.10 = 7p ps final, $0.15 = 10.7p total dividend for 2020, yield 6-7% which is pretty good

Has this now gone ex div or is it a specific time today?

Genel goes ex div 13th May and the final dividend alone gives a yield of 4.5%

The results at the end of the month, resumption of dividend, special dividend and resumption of the 55k expansion project should give the SP a boost.

Completely agree so why is the share price 116p and not 200p?

The $73m is well documented and KRG withheld payments to many producers inc GENL. Nobody should expect a lump sum repayment but $70 oil makes it much quicker if the KRG and the oil Co’s agree a repayment schedule. GKP’s CoC is c10% due to geopolitical risks, management should definitely request this because it is a real cost but yes there is an element of wishful thinking.

Don't forget KRG owe GKP $73m plus another $10m in interest

When you say this can't go much lower, a rough valuation for oil co's is £10m per 1000 bopd. BPC currently produces 500bopd and has a £24m market cap so that valuation assumes Saffron reaches 2,500 bopd fairly soon. I think the oil is there but can't see any upside even if they make a discovery.

Greta's going to be fuming!

The shares in play is mostly relevant to EPS and dividends

Cost of capital is 9% Genel & 10% GKP so the $73m debt is more like $80m with interest

CERP wasn’t about hedging in the case of failure. If P1 is successful then it’s at least 3-4 years before any operating cash is generated hence CERP offers immediate cash flow, exploration potential and M&A with TRIN or PRD.