Member Info for joxer22

Simply Wall Street is just some bot software that takes basic financial data, runs some standard calculations and then formats the results into a report template

It's really annoying that it's necessary to login and filter the troll on this message board before it's readable.
Still, it's worth doing as there are some valuable contributors here providing genuine insights.
Hopefully they will continue using the board despite the constant disruption.

Given the P3 results it was pretty much a coin toss whether the FDA would approve or reject.
The slow decay of the share price in recent weeks was in hindsight a good indicator of what the smart money was doing.
As I posted previously this was a case of a cure looking for a disease and the data just didn't stack up sufficiently

BIRG has to be of interest to a number of the larger European banks as an attractive takeover target currently. It's in an ideal growth position and would be a great bolt on acquisition for a high capitalised, stable/low growth bank. However, this would probably prove problematic from a political perspective.

While both dividends and buybacks are lower than I expected the key take from the 2021 results is just how financially strong BIRG is now. For long term holders this will be a great investment over the next few years with clearly signposted sustainable growth and relatively low risk. Higher dividends and share buybacks will all occur in due course.

Pretty impressive - though I thought the share buybacks would be higher

ORPH is looking cheap - maybe a good fit for AMYT?

Nothing really happening here - just view this slight pullback in context. It jumped to €7 far too quickly on sustained Blackrock buying. Now it's falling back a bit. The European banks index EXX1 is down about 2.5% today - BIRG is not even tracking this drop. BIRG has very sound fundamentals and is currently just trading at about fundamental valuation. Day to day price changes are irrelevant unless you're day trading the stock - two years down the road the current price will look cheap.

If the P3 data was very convincing then Filsuvez would already be approved in the US and Europe. However, there seems to be a lot of ambiguity in the results. There is nothing else currently available currently for EB so the regulators have to make a decision - is the data good enough? I think of Filsuvez as a cure in search of a disease - it's got a good safety profile but is it effective for EB? The European regulators have taken the easy option - wait for the soft data/feedback from the various interested parties. It will be interesting to see what the FDA decide to do. My view is that it will get some form of approval as the risks are low - it all comes down to the regulators opinions on its efficaciousness.

Higher volume today - some very large trades of around 1M shares.

Most analysts seem to have their current targets around the €7 mark. I think Davy have a €9 target but not sure over what timeframe.

I believe that the states ongoing reduction in its shareholding is directly contributing to the increase in share price. Many institutional buyers would have been hesitant taking positions while the state had significant control over the banks decisions.
As the states position decreases more investors will start to buy into an independent bank not controlled by the whims of politicians. There has been some criticism in the media of the price ranges at which the state has sold tranches but if they had not started reducing their holdings then this would probably have put a brake on the potential upside for BIRG.

BIRG was tracking the euro bank stocks (EXX1) reasonably closely until December. It probably should have outperformed that index last year given the various BIRG specific developments (Davy, Irish economy etc) The question is whether the 15% + positive divergence in performance over the last couple of months is valid. The trade volumes would suggest that this is primarily institutional trading so I tend to believe the stock is just re-rating to a reasonable valuation of approx €7 per share. it's probably close to fair value at present and any significant increases from here would need share buybacks, dividend clarity or exceptional results.

Agreed - it's good to see some knowledgeable posters starting to use the board again. It's a pity how much disruption one multi-alias troll can cause.

I think it's all down to the details in the P3 trial results - there seems to be a lot of ambiguity in the data so it's probably hard for the regulators to make a clear cut decision

Probably worth confirming that with ii. My broker needed confirmation to convert to ADS, otherwise they would have taken no action which would have left me holding untradeable AIM shares

One thing that is hard to understand is why the FDA left it so late to declare that the additional data is a major amendment of the NDA. It's not like they just got this data recently. I figure that they are probably being very cautious with this review. A lot of the trial data points are marginal so they need to be absolutely certain about statistical significance before approval.

Bermuda - I agree that it is most likely positive and could be for broader labelling. Not great news for the CVRs but not negative news either.

The delay is "to allow time to review additional analyses of data previously submitted by Amryt" as this additional data submitted is considered to be a major amendment of the NDA. So, the question is what does this additional data show - positive or negative? Amryt could provide an update on the specific additional data that is being reviewed.

Interesting timing for this announcement, within a few days of the PDUFA. Maybe they just want to ensure that the AIM delisting decision is out there now so that it won't be connected with whatever the FDA decides.