Member Info for joxer22

Hard to fathom the mentality of the social media led lemmings who believed that the fact their bank balance was unavailable somehow meant they were going to get free money. I wouldn't even be surprised to hear some fruitcake politicians declare that they should get to keep the money.

The minister for 19 versions of covid was also quickly out of the blocks with a few populist soundbites - probably worth a few votes.

The UK mortgage timebomb is just a canary in the coalmine for the effects of interest rate rises. The years of "free" money have distorted the worlds financial system and the central banks efforts to normalize the system are failing. Interesting times ahead.

Today is the ex-dividend date, tomorrow is the record date. The ex-dividend date for stocks is usually set one business day before the record date.

It actually looked like this board was getting back to normal a few weeks ago but sadly it didn’t last long.

Hard to believe that Credit Suisse is now effectively valued at €2 Billion and Bank of Ireland at €10 Billion . Wonder what Francesca thinks of it all !

The market is not convinced that there are no systemic risks around the banking sector - this will take a bit longer than a few days to play out. Sitting on the sidelines at the moment might be a good idea.

Credit Suisse is already down about 30% in the US pre-market but who knows where it will go when the volume trading starts in a few minutes.

The drop has nothing to do with BIRG, it's just the market reaction to the problems showing up in some of the euro banks particularly Credit Suisse. There is always the fear of contagion hence the trackers are selling the euro banks index - have a look at EXX1.de, it always gives a good indicator of the general mood in the sector.

Just tracking the euro bank index down today, total overreaction to SVB - I wouldn't be surprised if Blackrock are hoovering up some more.

Most retail shareholders have their shares held in broker nominee accounts so they don’t show up on the shareholders register. They effectively grant all of their voting rights etc. to their brokers.

21c plus a possible approx. 10c more

Somewhere in the region of 18 cents seems to be the general consensus

Irish banks are up on general Euro banking positivity - EXX1 is up over 2% (mostly due to Banco Santander +5%)

It's basing steadily in the high nines - next time it goes over €10 I think it will hold. Barclays target now upped to €12.50

I think Davy have a similar number around 1.17B. Their investment case/SP target seems to be based on the potential growth of this figure to about 1.8B over the next three years. I think that the SP reaction post 2022 results will depend to a lesser extend on the predicted 2022 number and more on how the bank sell the growth story.

The action in AIB has been very interesting to watch over the last few months. It's got to a market cap of 10B even with the government holding most of the shares. The trading volumes have been relatively high and any selling down of the shares (probably by the state) gets shrugged off quickly and the price keeps bouncing back, usually on large individual buys. Somebody wants in - I wonder if the government is planning to offload more quickly than expected, maybe some kind of trade sale?

@johnhume,
I was hoping for an SP of around €10 in the runup to the results so it was surprising to hit it this week. It's hard to see any near term major movement in the SP from here given that each €1 added to the SP equates to about €1B added to the current €10B market cap. Then again, if the results are blowout and the dividend exceeds consensus (I think this is about 18c) who knows. Davy see upside from here of about 30% but then again they're the house broker. I sold some at €10 but I consider the remaining shares as a long term investment. If I can get 10% growth per year plus dividends I'll be happy to hold.

The consensus broker target is around €10 and it's hit that valuation at this stage even with the slight pullback. The expected interest rate hikes were baked into the share price and there now seems to be a general belief in the market that the FED/ECB will not hike much further, maybe even pivoting later in the year. The SP rise over the last year has been spectacular but future gains will be much harder to come by - the easy money was made as it re-rated towards fair value.

Had to let some go at €10 - the remainder I'll leave alone and see what happens over the next few months