Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
About double the usual volume on Nasdaq on Friday. After an initial sell off in the morning most of the afternoon trades were positive with a few large buys propping up the sp. Somewhat surprising that this stock is not trading higher in anticipation of the PDUFA date.
Another factor to consider is their current debt to equity ratio and the likelihood of near term conversion of debt to equity. I think they mentioned this possibility at the last conference call. Filsuvez approval would probably be the trigger for some dilution to reduce debt.
Any guesses as to the value of Filsuvez (if approved) to the AMYT share price? If they get a voucher that should be worth about 10%. Initial sales volumes for the first few quarters will probably be good as patients try it out for effectiveness. I guess this could be worth 20-30% - so maybe 30-40% upside to the current SP ?
Maybe they should snap up ORPH while it's still cheap.
Currently around £170million market cap - down a lot from March/April highs
Someone seems to willing to pay $12.45 pre-market on NASDAQ
SVB Leerink and Cowen have both initiated coverage of AMYT with $22 target
The last few paragraphs list some recent transactions in AMYT by various institutional investors:
https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2021/08/09/amryt-pharma-nasdaqamyt-earns-buy-rating-from-hc-wainwright.html
Good to hear the recent meeting with the FDA did not raise any issues - so it looks like the Filsuvez priority review is still on track
It's always a good sanity check to compare movements in BIRG with the Euro STOXX Banks ETF (EXX1.DE)
This gives an indication if any price movements are general or specific to BIRG - recently BIRG is just tracking
EXX1 i.e. general weakness in the banks - nothing BIRG specific.
Interesting RNS - it looks like up until last Friday the market was not sure about the merger - hence the wrong price ratio between CHMA and AMYT. I guess the market got some inkling on Friday to believe it will happen, resulting in huge volumes on CHMA as the price adjusted to more closely reflect the correct ratio. Maybe AMYT is just rising based on more certainty about the buyout?
Huge volume on CHMA yesterday - over 20% of the market cap. CHMA had been significantly undervalued based on the .396 conversion rate to AMYT. However, that doesn't account for the corresponding rise in AMYT. Something else going on here.
CHMA and AMYT both moving now - some big trades on CHMA.
It's really down to the perception of future profitability. Rightly or wrongly the market cap for Krystal
is based on the markets belief that their gene therapy/delivery systems have the potential to be highly
effective - also that they could be leveraged for multiple different skin related indications.
This share won't move until there is a lot more certainty regarding FDA approvals/merger completions etc.
The market is taking nothing for granted here - maybe if the P3 results had been "out of the ballpark"
great then some value would have been factored into the SP but for now it's just wait and see.
Another day and another drop in SP. There seems to have been significant selling pressure on AMYT even before the recent news. However, the MMs were controlling the price tightly up till last week - large sells were getting matched to similar large buys with minor overall price movements. All very difficult to understand!
Ray S would have saved a bundle if he had waited to buy after the announcement.
No doubt the house brokers will crank out the usual synergy blah blah tomorrow but it looks like the market has decided who the winners and losers are in this deal.
Certainly some unusual share volumes both here and in the US over the last few days given that the usual daily volumes tend to be quite small. I also wonder about the NASDAQ listing effectiveness. Initially when they listed in the US it looked like they saw NASDAQ being the primary listing but recent insider purchases seem to have been on AIM?