Member Info for joxer22

The other Irish banks are slightly down and there's not much change on the EXX1 index so it's something specific to BIRG - maybe some institution taking a position?

No politician of any significance will pursue the fossil fuel agenda as it's just a can of worms with potential huge EU climate fines, aggressive anti-fossil fuel lobby groups and a woke media driving the agenda. There is now even a climate action subject mandated for secondary school students. The recent approval of the use of fracked gas is simply to ensure that the country can take advantage of the EU/US energy deal as an interim source of gas requirements (on the way towards the mythical net zero!)

The role of the Irish President is symbolic and ceremonial. The President is not involved in legislative affairs and the idea that he/she would have any involvement in decisions related to energy security is utter nonsense.

A good decision - data centers have very little strategic value and these companies need to understand that Ireland is not an electrical socket to be used in return for minimal employment returns.

I've often noticed that significant trading/price action from around 3pm onwards often seems to precede an RNS release the next day.

The Irish Government are in a difficult position as they are caught between different challenges - on one hand they are being threatened by the EU with up to potentially €20billion in fines for missed climate targets and on the other hand the countries energy infrastructure has been compromised by the reckless approval of far too many data centres over recent years. These operations are mostly non-strategic, low employment, and consume a huge percentage of the available energy. Meanwhile, there is a serious shortage of energy resources and infrastructure for essential future residential needs. So, what path can they take? - if they approve drilling they get long lead times, risk the wrath of the EU and the COS percentages are about 50/50. It looks like the EU/US energy deal is most likely the near term solution for LNG but long term they have to rapidly scale up the renewables side to meet the 2030 70%+ targets. There are no easy answers and many lobby groups on every side!

Certainly a standout performer today, well ahead of the other Irish banks and the euro index.

The governments policy is perfectly clear - imported LNG and emergency floating backup storage. They confirmed this in March.

They are simply following the recommendations of the Department of the Environment who considered all options and recommended that solution.

The only thing not yet announced are the specific details of the final storage solution

See section 7.6.1 and chapters 8 and 9:

https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/276795/c7ca6839-05f5-4d7f-8db9-bbf12f4eba67.pdf#page=null

There's a big push from Europe for bank consolidation across the EU - maybe some suitors interested in one of the Irish banks?

A lot of countries are starting to look at data centers as "vampires" on their energy systems - they consume vast amounts of commercial power but provide very few jobs and are not really of any strategic value. The Amazon idea of using small private nuclear reactors makes a lot of sense.

This article is behind a paywall but it's mostly PG comments on LNG storage - instead of the current floating LNG storage plan he would prefer his offshore storage proposal (i.e. Mag Mell)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/gas-company-boss-admits-he-would-not-live-beside-lng-facility-in-case-it-blew-up/a297189432.html

The votes for discontinuation were probably institutional investors unhappy with the SP sitting at approx. 30% below NAV. Also, the general liquidity for GRP has been pretty low. It will be interesting to see if the somewhat unusual decision to list in Johannesburg will have any effect.

Some details about the proposed LNG FSRU:

https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-the-environment-climate-and-communications/press-releases/government-approves-development-of-state-led-strategic-gas-emergency-reserve/

Trumps talking again !

Everything that the government has said to date makes it clear that they plan to follow the DECC recommendations to the letter (imported LNG and storage).

The only question is where the LNG is sourced from. The EU seems to be planning a bloc wide LNG sourcing deal with the US as part of tariff negotiations so US LNG would seem to be the most likely source.

Here's the reality for fossil fuel related activity in Ireland (and this is just for LNG storage).

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/shannon-lng-power-plant-project-stalled-by-legal-challenge/a1404790660.html

Going to be some jump tomorrow!

This is the primary document providing recommendations for LNG security in Ireland. The recent decisions by the government are related to sections 7.61, section 8 and section 9

https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/276795/c7ca6839-05f5-4d7f-8db9-bbf12f4eba67.pdf#page=null

It all depends on whether the US stock market keeps declining. If the stock crash continues to deepen in the US he'll do an about turn. The average person in the US is way more connected to the market than in Europe so expect a populist response from Trump when the s**t hits the fan!

Key thing to note is that it's dropping as part of a general euro bank selloff, would be more worried if it was only the Irish banks. Another few % and I'm loading up.