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The article really shows how interest rate moves are so significant for BOI and AIB:

"..Brian Hayes, chief executive of the Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland, the main voice of the industry, said 80 per cent of their income was generated from interest rate moves, while 20 per cent comes from fees. This compares with a 60-40 split in the EU. As inflation continues to soar, more rate rises are on the cards. BOI expects €435mn in additional net interest income if rates rise by 1 percentage point, while AIB has pointed to a €369mn uplift, based on their forecasting models.

Good article in the FT - Irish banks once in a generation growth opportunity
(www.ft.com/content/c11421ff-5f85-48d4-b93d-1b6b0dc48185)

Nice ~10% gain for anyone brave enough to buy in this morning! The conference call transcript is worth a read, especially for the analysts questions - looks like the momentum should build into 2023

Results look ok at first glance, maybe not as strong as expected. That might explain the slight weakness in the price over the last few weeks

ST tips ex Wells Fargo Europe head Alicia Reyes Revuelta as next CEO

Good results from AIB this morning but a muted response from the market. The risks of political interference in the Irish banks are firmly on investors minds. Any potential investors need to think about the upcoming political landscape in Ireland - the SF comments about how they would have directly dictated to AIB gives a good indication of where we're headed.

NASDAQ listings for AIM companies don't always work out.. have a look at the dismal performance of AMYT since it listed!

I believe the impending fine and the CEO situation are also dampers on the BIRG price. The market hates uncertainty and the actual fine may or may not meet the amounts provisioned for. A new CEO with a clearly defined strategy for the bank should also remove some uncertainty. Also, the events of last week with AIB clearly indicate to potential investors that banks in Ireland are considered to be social services which will be bent to political will as required. Although the states ownership in BIRG is now negligible both the public and politicians believe the banks are subservient to their whims i.e. we bailed them out so they will be forever in our debt. One can only imagine how this relationship will develop with the next government!

The impending fine and the CEO situation need to be resolved. That plus a couple of good quarterly results should result in a re-rating.

Davy raising BIRG target to €10.58 based on ECB hikes, AIB target raised to €4.22

Each rate rise means more money to the bottom line for BIRG. Todays 50 basis points rise is starting to get reflected in the share price - up almost 4%

Their meeting with the FDA on the CRL must not have had any impact - hard to know what to expect from the formal FDRR process.

Market could care less - 2% rise on NASDAQ, - negligible volume as usual

The very definition of a champagne socialist!

Just some market jitters amid high inflation fears. The smaller banks always tend to overreact to any movements in the EU bank tracking index (down about 5.5% today). However, higher inflation will work well for the Irish banks with their skew towards cash deposits. The higher the EU rates go, the more they will profit.

End of June at the latest (67 days). Higher volume than usual on Friday - maybe something happening?

Apparently one of the key goals for professional message board trolls is to get engagement from regular members of a forum in order to create the maximum level of disruption - not the case in this instance but the result is the same.

I wonder why they bothered with the CVRs in the first place - returning cash to shareholders in a small growth company doesn't make a lot of sense. There must be better ways to utilize cash. Then again, borrowing money one year and then proposing 30M share buybacks the next doesn't really add up either. The share performance to date has been abysmal so it will be interesting to see what effect if any the buybacks will have. The market is certainly not pricing in any impact at present.

I don't think it's likely the sp will drop that much given the general strength of the Irish economy and specifically the sound BIRG financials. However, the market will certainly assign a lot of significance to the replacement CEO. AIB has more near term upside and has certainly been bucking the general trend over the last few days (admittedly this is mainly due to buybacks ). In the long term I think both BIRG and AIB are positioned to do very well. The uncertainties are definitely going to be political such as duopoly issues, radical changes in government policies etc.

It's hard to know when the music will stop - we're certainly in the last phase of the everything bubble where every market dip gets bought with the belief that the fed/central banks will always be there as protection. As usual the retail punters will be the ones piling into the market when it rolls over. It normally takes a relatively short time to recover losses from a standard market crash but the next crash could be spectacular given how far it's been pumped.