Member Info for Josh95

And Buy re-iteration from Peel Hunt with 12 month price target of £6.75. Nearly all brokers very bullish on Crest all with price targets significantly above today's' trading price. "Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC using EPIC/TICKER code LON:CRST had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ this morning by analysts at Peel Hunt. Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC are listed in the Consumer Goods sector within UK Main Market. Peel Hunt have set a target price of 675 GBX on its stock. This would imply the analyst believes there is now a potential upside of 31.8% from the opening price of 512 GBX."

Excellent rise here today, no doubt Bovis is one of, if not the, most undervalued builder in the sector. Dividend payment date 20/11 should provide some further upward support through div re-investment. Roll on Feb results. Deutsche buy re-iterated today with 12 month target well above £13. "In an analyst report revealed on Tuesday, 17 November, Deutsche Bank reaffirmed their Buy rating on shares of Bovis Homes Group PLC (LON:BVS). They currently have a GBX 1352.00 target price per share on the company. Deutsche Bank’s target suggests a potential upside of 43.67% from the company’s close price."

Re last post, should read expected peg now negative for current year due to drop in profits and thus eps.

A backwards looking comparison means nothing, it means very little how much crest or inland have fallen over the past weeks or months and your backwards looking analysis is thus irrelevant. The only thing that actually matters is where the value is now and what the business will deliver moving forward. For me the value is no longer in inland, hence the move into crest. Although inland has posted a set of fantastic figures a big concern is the HUGE drop off in builds under construction which seemed to have halved; if inland dont sell significant plots of land this year then profits are going to go backwards as growth is most certainly not going to come from the house building arm which was always integral to inlands future value. The price earnings ratio is therefore going to go up sharply and peg of above 1 is expected for the current year! given this fact one cannot compare the current pe to sector peers and must instead average over the course of the business cycle to make for more meaningful comparison. For me the growth prospects seem stronger at bovis, crest and redrow who all outline plans for significant growth over the coming years as can seen from their forcested pe and peg ratios- all much stronger than inlands. It seems to me wicks was banking on a take over by now, which has not been forthcoming.

In their latest annual report, Redrow outline their target of achieving 62p EPS by 2018. This is built into their Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) upon which 50% of the vesting criteria are based upon EPS targets. Upon closer inspection of the vesting criteria one sees that the MINIMUM boundary for vesting is 62pence EPS by 2018, however for 100% of the EPS vesting proportion to vest the BODs will need to achieve 76pence EPS, and the vesting proportion is apportioned between the upper and lower bounds. What does this tell us I hear you say? Well, this tells us that the BODS must be very confident of achieving between 62p and 76p EPS by the period ending 2018. In terms of PE ratios this translates into a pe ratio of between 435/62 = 7 on the minimum bound, or indeed 435/76 = 5.7 on the upper bound. It is realistic therefore to expect that the forward PE ratio for 2018 for Redrow is likely to be between 5.7 and 7 which points towards excellent growth prospects. I also note from Redrow's landbank compilation that they are increasing the proportion of their landbank around the South and South East compared to up North, which should benefit from greater ASP growth over the coming years. Overall these LTIP vesting targets help to give us an indication into the future growth for the company, which until now was harder to put figures to given no volume targets have been outlined as for two other fantastic sector buys Crest and Bovis which offer similar value prospects. I think it is likely Redrow will achieve an EPS and thus PE nearer the upper bound, which translates into a 2018 forward pe of excellent value at only c. 5.7!

Indeed INL has held up very well, but the drops elsewhere have presented compelling buying opportunities. I am particularly attracted to Crest (and Bovis) because of their business strategies; both operate predominantly across the South and South East (like Inland) which are areas which will enjoy the strongest house price growth over the coming years, and both have strategies to significantly increase output over the coming years which will support strong earnings growth and very strong dividend growth too. Take a look at an article I posted on the Crest board a while back, its a long way out but Peel Hunt have forecasted EPS for Crest of 86p for 2019 which puts it on a forward PE of just 5.7 with an implied dividend yield of nearly 9%. That gives you an idea of the growth prospects at Crest. A similar picture emerges over at Bovis Homes too. Crest Nicholson is also very highly rated by brokers and has some of the highest share price growth price targets in the sector, because brokers recognize its profitable business model and growth. It also has a very strong landbank and it is many brokers top pick in the sector and Goldman Sachs Conviction buy. With a trading update next week and full year results the first to be published in the sector next year in late Jan, I just think its the best pick at the moment, IMO. I've been picking them up at below a fiver, and if you get the opportunity to add some below or close to £5 I think they are a fantastic buy!

Im out of here gents.. Still a good hold imo, but too many better opportunities in the sector right now. I also become concerned over the drop off in properties under construction compared to last year. Moved the bulk of proceeds in to crest nicholson. Gla still in.

Goldmine Sachs- re-iterate conviction buy on Crest with a 12 month price target of £7.60!

£5 on the dot! Delighted to build a large position here at below a fiver ahead of next weeks trading update on November 17th. Should be good, and full year results out late Jan.

For 2019 according to peel hunts forescasts now a meager 5.7 times! Implied yield at £4.96 of 8.7%!

Sold some redrow to buy more here before trading update next week. In big at £4.96.

big top up at £4.33

Peel Hunt have pencilled in a forward yield of 8.3% for 2019 and a forward PE for 2019 of just 6! Personally i think Bovis will out do this due to its stronger outlined growth strategy buy both excellent prospects, I think Redrow will be a similar play too. "There is little not to like about Crest Nicholson's (CRST) business at the moment. Sales are rising fast and the house builder has recently upped its long-term annual sales targets to 4,000 homes by 2019, which roughly equates to revenues of £1.4bn. The £1bn mark is expected to be hit in 2016. Average selling prices rose 15 per cent in the first half, helped by the location and mix of properties sold. The company also continues to boast one of the most impressive sales rates in the sector and its ability to sell properties should be helped by a shift in focus towards affordable London homes and the private rented sector. The group's investment in its land bank means it looks well placed to deliver on its commitments. Indeed, the gross development value of its land leapt by 22 per cent in the first half to £10.1bn. By historic standards, no house builder can be described as cheap at the moment, but earnings growth and dividends are major attractions the sector offers. Earnings growth is being assisted by the fact that an absence of funding for small builders means land-price inflation has remained fairly benign. This has helped margins tick up depite increases to the cost of materials and labour. Based on the new 2019 sales target, broker Peel Hunt expects Crest's EPS to rise 80 per cent by 2019 to 86p and thinks the dividend could be hiked by 120 per cent between now and then to 43p - an 8.6 per cent yield based on the current share price. Forecasting such a long way out is an exercise riddled with uncertainty, but income hunters can also take heart from the rapid dividend growth expected in the nearer term. Peel Hunt expects last year's 14.3p dividend to be lifted 19.5p in the year to the end of October, followed by 28.3p in 2016 and then 33.2p in 2017 - respective forecast yields of 3.9 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 6.7 per cent."

A traders dream! Just as expected, bought in at £5.09 yesterday, bang.. Crest highest gainer in the sector by miles 3.5% up! So predictable! The highest beta coefficient in the sector makes this a dream for trading.

Hi tom, That is Jonas Crosslands buy reiteration article which he wrote this afternoon in IC, so I doubt many have seen it already, although doesn't really say anything new.

" (INL) delivered a strong performance for the year to June, more than doubling the number of private home sales to 248, and boosting the total dividend payout by two-thirds. Turnover nearly doubled and net asset value per share was up by nearly half. Its expanding investment arm also provided a revaluation surplus of £14.5m. The group also achieved record sales of 440 building plots to builders, up from 169 in the previous year, but despite these and the houses it built itself, Inland managed to increase its land bank from 3,734 plots to 5,176 plots, of which 1,200 have planning consent. At the Wilton Park site in Buckinghamshire, 76 of the former Ministry of Defence houses are being held as investment properties and are expected to generate rents of over £1m, against a short-term rental income target of £2m. The rest of the site has the capacity for at least 300 homes with a gross development value of around £250m. Analysts are reluctant to forecast profits for the coming year, as much depends on land sales, and revenue from these can be lumpy." "Shares in Inland Homes are up from our buy tip (57p, 19 Feb 2015), and while they trade at a large premium to net asset value, the latter does not reflect the unrealised value of the land bank. Given the continued demand for housing around London, and the group's ability to extract value from brownfield sites, we remain buyers."

Gleeson weathering the storm immensely well, the share just keeps on giving!

Don't worry gents this drop is temporary, on Liberums poor assessment of the sector. They have downgraded Taylor Wimpey, Barrats and Persimmon to sell with some stupid price targets that won't materialize. They have got it wrong, just like Jefferies did last spring. Although I agree the big three are not the place to be, they ironically suggest value at Bovis, Bellway, Crest and Redrow etc who are growing volumes yet these have been dragged down too on their unfounded margin warnings. This is a phenomenal buying opportunity! Thanks Liberum capital for the top up opportunity before the reporting season kicks off. Liberum will be eating humble pie over the next few months, certainly by spring.

opportunity to top up Liberum furnished us with today. Unfounded rating cuts for the big boys, whilst ironically suggesting better value here at Redrow and other midcaps like Bovis and Bellway and this still slumps 6%! Reminds me of Jefferies last year, they will be proven very wrong indeed just like Jefferies were! Poor assessment of the sector, although I agree with them the value i here at the midcaps and not at TW, Bdev or PSN which they have cut to a sell.

Simon might be on holiday, certainly expect something this week. Purely profit taking here ive sold none and dont plan to for a good while. March interims should be strong and the application of epra nav should give further indication into the true value of the landbank.