Member Info for Josh95

"Given the pipeline for SMP the TBV could increase 50% to 100% over the next 3 years. Given that the market cap for SMP has historically been double TBV once the sector starts to fully recover we could easily see a price approaching 1,500 pence per share or more within 3 years. Extremely undervalued companies usually end up doing the logical in terms of repricing, but just not when you expect. I recall Gary White (formerly Questor) making a compelling case for Barratt in 2010, made it one of hos tips of the year for the start of 2010, nothing much happened that year, or the year after, I was baffled and frustrated but refused to walk away as Barratt remained a screaming buy, everything just got better except the price - then in August 2012 bang - my biggest regret is selling out far far too soon, I more than doubled my money but I could have ..... never mind! Timing of clear buys is a stange thing, if the story remains intact they invariably do as you hope, but it is almost as if weaker holders need to be shaken out and replaced with determined holders and then when there is no more shaking out to be done, the move begins - hardest aspect of investing I think, patiently waiting, I certainly find it so."

Crest has been a very strong performer over the past 12 months enjoying the second greatest share holder returns in the sector over the past year! The strong management team, excellent landbank and business strategy encorporating significant growth, coupled together with a strong and growing dividend yield means Crest is likely to enjoy sector leading returns again over the next few years. TW 82% Crest 79% Bdev 68% Inland Homes 67% Redrow 67% Bellway59% PSN 58% BVS32% TEF 23%

Fingers crossed strong results push us a little nearer 80p on Monday. I am sure strong results will be followed up by an article from Simon Thompson in IC which usually helps provide some further upward momentum. GLA

Brilliant finish, lets see what Monday brings! GLA

Tight spread too- sells going through at over 74p now

I think you will find sain spikes from articles such as jimbos occur mainky in illiquid shares like telford homes where a handfuk of trades affect price significantly- rarely highly liquid ftse 250 firms so you are comparing apples with pears! Look at simon Thompson s small cap tips in ic for instance- huge spikes on his tips in illiquid shares. Not the case for liquid stocks ripped in the main part of the comment. I suggest you do some reading on the efficient market hypothesis- you might learn something!

Yes results will be out on Monday as per Inland Homes financial calendar: http://www.inlandhomes.co.uk/investors/financial-calendar

Strong rise this morning

Looks like Monday will be the day then, doesn't seem like they will be released earlier now. Very excited!

I think Jimbo sees Bovis as a long term investment that will outperform the sector over a three year period- notover a couple of days! Time is needed for the strategy to unfold. As previously stated the market wants to see margin and ROCE improvements from Bovis and until then the discount to sector peers will remain. The business model does however dictate that those metrics will be improved as the strategy unfolds and when it does the discount to sector peers will disappear propelling bovis from underperforming the sector to sector leading share holder returns- that is the huge buy attraction for many. Most other builders are trading at near record financial metrics where as there is alot of improvement still to come here.

Redrow looking great value at the moment; telford homes share price is approaching parity which is a big buy signal in my book given the greater value here!

If you were expecting to see a huge spike on the back of Jim Slater's Bovis tip like you did when he tipped the illiquid AIM stock TEF many months ago then you clearly misunderstand the nature of financial markets. Bovis is a highly liquid FTSE 250 listed company which allows market participants to transact in large quantities without significantly effecting the price. Conversely, an AIM listed company like TEF is far from highly liquid and thus relatively low volume can cause large movements in the price of the stock, as you saw first hand when Jim tipped TEF (which he has now downgraded to a mere hold). So no, not really a poor response you are simply forgetting this is not an illiquid AIM share where price is easily manipulated.

Thanks Dave! Funny I noticed that too, I hope we don't hit 352! Haha.. obviously a mistake maybe their target is 1352 and they just missed the 1 off who knows, doesn't really matter anyway just nice majority of brokers (and investment guru's such as Jim Slater) are very bullish on Bovis, I think we will do very well over the coming three years as the strategy kicks into play, chronic housing shortage especially in the south is going to help push up asp's and margins here. Got my dividend on auto reinvest so selfishly hoping we stay low a bit longer for when that's paid in mid Nov anyway to be honest. Interesting interview with Bovis CEO here from a few weeks back: http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/bovis-homes-ask-the-ceo

Bovis has just been reiterated as a BUY by Deutsche bank. Brokers seem to be getting more bullish on Bovis as indicators begin to confirm the businesses South East weighting strategy, disciplined land investment and target to near double volumes is likely to start paying off over the next 1-3 years. A quick glance at some of the broker 12 months price targets confirms that they too think Bovis is likely to enjoy the best returns in the sector having lagged until now. It is also interesting to noted from the charts that over the past two years Bovis Homes has been driven down to lows around mid october before rallying strongly to Feb results. A similar pattern appears to be emerging so far this year! Now is a great time to switch into Bovis Homes IMO. This is a view shared by Jim Slater and the majority of brokers in the sector who have pencilled in the strongest capital growth in the sector for Bovis over their 12 month price targets. Goldman Sachs 12 month price target £15.05: potential capital return 46% Jefferies 12 month price target £14.49: potential capital return 41% HSBC 12 month price target a whopping £16.70: potential capital return 62% These targets tie in with my own analysis and Jim Slaters view that Bovis is now a very strong buy and likely to return some of the strongest capital growth in the entire sector from here forth over the next few years. Two to three years out (2018) my models conservatively forecast a valuation of well over £17 a share although I I purposefully remain on the conservative side when constructing financial models so hopefully we can nearer double three years out. The PE ratio three years out is currently foretasted to hit a mere 6.5 times with a dividend yield of over 8% at current prices that is 2x covered by profits. Also remember we are currently trading ex dividend and 13p will be paid to shareholders Mid Nov.

An excellent question that is easily answered for you and others who may be confused. The esteemed stock picking guru, Jim Slater, considered by many to be a hero in the investment community due to his phenomenal track record for picking stocks that outperform the sector has analysed both businesses for us so there is no need for anyone to be confused. Jim has a very clear view on this, he has recently slashed his rating on Telford Homes from a buy to a hold as can be verified here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/11789289/Jim-Slater-my-tax-free-share-portfolio-is-up-35pc-in-a-year.html Jim has simaltaneously upgraded Bovis Homes to a VERY STRONG BUY as seen in his recent article here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/11906450/Jim-Slater-My-latest-tip-improves-the-odds-in-the-stock-market-casino.html There can be no confusion that Jim Slater rates Bovis Homes as the best pick in the sector, certainly miles ahead of TEF which he only rates as a mere hold. It is also very important to note that Peel Hunt are the house broker for Telford Homes so not esteemed at all- in fact they are paid to give a rose tinted view where as Jim Slaters view is completely impartial. This is why few investment proffessional take any notice of house brokers- they are quite simply biased. Delighted we could clear that one up for you and others :D

RICS reports that the average number of homes on the books of surveyors in the south east has fallen to a record low of just 25 compared to a UK average of 47. Given Bovis Homes are concentrated in this area the lack of supply is likely to result in the strongest house price appreciation in the UK- great news for Bovis Homes and no wonder Jim Slater rates this stock as a VERY STRONG BUY. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34474021

Indeed, I cannot believe the phenomenal value and purchasing opportunity we have gladly been furnished with over the past weeks. This is astonishing value, by far the greatest value in the entire sector. Bovis homes trades on a mere PE ratio for the year ending 2015 of just 9.9 dropping to 8 the year after (and further growth the following years as volumes double), and it is only 4 months until full year results. The price to book multiple is the lowest in the entire sector at just 1.5 dropping to c 1.3-1.4 in 2016, suggesting Bovis is easily trading on atleast a 30% discount to sector peers. It won't be long until the valuation gap closes and we will be handsomely rewarded for topping up at these levels. Over the coming year and years Bovis's results will force the current trading discount to be eradicated as margins and ROCE improve and we enjoy the strongest EPS growth in the sector currently trading on a peg of 0.4 for at least the next two years highlights the value here. There is a reason Jim Slater rates Bovis Homes above the likes of Telford homes etc having slapped a VERY STRONG buy rating on the stock just days ago. This is simply astonishing value and far too good to miss at these levels; it won't be long before people take note and we will be rewarded for our analysis. Brokers also agree with our views and going by their forecasts they agree Bovis Homes will enjoy sector leading total share holder returns from here forth. Savour the moment and grab more whilst you can; as Dako pointed out a similar pattern emerged last year. A similar picture is also emerging over at SMP which is now trading on a 15% discount to forecasted November NAV- another incredible buy for the next 2-3 years minimum!

Max until results guys, hold tight!

Agreed- for those that understand this business it now looks to easily be the best value play in the sector. This is not just my view either, if you look at nearly all broker forecasts that value Bovis at nearly 50% more than its current price, which leaves much more room for capital gain than at nearly every other builder. Adding to this, even Jim Slater has just reiterated Bovis as a VERY STRONG buy! Having said this Bovis still seems to have fallen out of favour with the market which seems to want to see progress on margins and ROCE before the valuation gap is closed. This looks terrific value on a forward pe of below 10 and the lowest price to book ratio of just 1.5 in the sector! I think we may have to wait for Feb results though to see this nearer where it should be.

Anyone got an exact date for the finals yet, end of sep seems the only guidance we have so far?