Member Info for Josh95

I bought Bovis because it is unloved, and if you believe in the strategy the worst in sector ROCE should rocket over the next few years which will pull up the share price and potentially lead to sector leading shareholder returns as Bovis plays catchup. The market wants to see evidence of progress in this department, and accordingly at the moment it is punishing Ritchie for his appalling leadership. Personally I'd like to see him out, but even if he doesn't go things will get better as volumes increase and higher margin ed & valued plots work their way into the figures. Steve Morgan of Redrow is indeed an excellent Chairman (John Tutte is actually the CEO) and part of the reason I invested there too. Crest and Redrow both have clear growth strategies which will drive up EPS over the coming years which is part of the attraction for me. Indeed, a look at Redrow's annual report reveals significant growth in EPS as part of their LTIP vesting criteria for diectors. I was previously invested in TW. and Bdev but they are not the place to be anymore. Take a look at TW. for instance, it has volume targets of 14k units which it is now almost at. Where is the growth going to come from after that?! Crest has recently been described as a company where you can have your cake (growth) and eat it (dividends). Crest offers growth and market leading dividends, higher than any other builder including TW over the next few years. Why would you want to invest in TW. when it doesn't offer the same growth prospects and a lower dividend?! Same goes for Bdev. Bellway is a cross between the two. Bovis, Crest and Redrow are the place to be IMO.

The low valuation on the NAV for Bovis is partly due to its appallingly low ROCE which is a measly 16%. This compares to Crests market leading ROCE of a staggering 26.8%. These metrics imply that Crest is using its assets 26.8/16 = an astonishing 67.5% more efficiently than Bovis. Bovis currently trades on a P/b of just c 1.3 as you rightly point out. Crest's current P/b is nearer 2.3x. 1.3*1.675 = c. 2.2x and thus when Bovis increases its ROCE nearer to that of Crest we can expect a similar rating. Until then it will lag. Another reason for the low P/b ratio of Bovis is to do with its recent significant strengthening of the landbank. Under IFRS this is booked at the lower of NRV or Cost. Having recently added significantly to the landbank alot of the landbank is held at nearer to NRV at Bovis than will be the case for Crest. If one forensically analysed the landbanks of both and reported an EPRA NAV figure (current market value of the landbank) this would further close the gap. The good thing is, we know the strategy to double volumes should send the ROCE rocketing, and if Ritchie has got what it takes to do this Bovis could qucikly close that 67.5% valuation gap on the P/b compared to Crest. Has he got what it takes? I don't like his management, but things can only improve and I think we should do very well here.

Looks like a bit of profit taking this afternoon, after an incredible run, having nearly hit £6 in the morning. Here's hoping for another attack on £6 over the coming days and weeks leading up to the annual report. Redrow releases interims next Tuesday too. Interest rate rises being pushed back can only help as well.

Bovis looks THE most undervalued builder on every metric you look at. Forward P/E.. current P/B, forward P/B, PEG.. noticeably cheaper than every other builder and with a better yield than for instance Redrow to boot. The question now comes down to this; does Ritchie have what it take to deliver the growth strategy? The market clearly has doubts given his recent worse than expected results. Having said that I also topped up on the recent retrace (but mainly Redrow and Crest) and despite Ritchie's poor leadership and questionable recent form I think things can only get better in the 2016 financial year. The full year results in Feb are likely to be nothing special, but with the excuses of planning delays resulting in lower margin-ed and value units in the 2015 figures can only bode well for the 2016 interim's and finals. Although current market sentiment is against the stock, the long term fundamentals still scream buy. And the dividend yield at approaching 5% is attractive.

Interims next week. I was very impressed by the update at the AGM late last year and accordingly I have substantially increased my holding here over the last few weeks during the drift down to £4. My portfolio is now almost entirely spread across Crest, Redrow and Bovis with some SMP too. I'm sure next weeks figures will be excellent, and shall hopefully put an end to sub £4.50 and put us well on the way back to £5. GLA

Very pleased with the share price performance here. This has shot up almost 20% in the last few weeks, and up more often than down on days when the sector has retraced. Those of us who had the foresight to buy in heavily around £5 have been very handsomely rewarded here and I think we will, fingers crossed, smash through £6 in the next few months especially by interims. Crest still looks to be one of the best value builders in the sector, even at these levels. The dividend is set to rise to a stunning market leading 7.4% yield by 2018 and after stripping out the effects of dividends only the unloved Bovis appears better value on an adjusted PE valuation, Redrow follows both at a slightly higher dividend adjusted PE to account for the differing yields. I have the majority of my portfolio stuffed into Crest at present and with a strong dividend, agm and interims to look forward to over the next few months that will remain the case.

In a research report revealed to investors on Wednesday, 3 February, Crest Nicholson Holdings (LON:CRST) stock had its Buy Rating reconfirmed by research analysts at Canaccord Genuity. They currently have a GBX 670.00 PT on company. Canaccord Genuity’s target suggests a potential upside of 15.02% from the company’s current price. Out of 8 analysts covering Crest Nicholson Holdings Plc (LON:CRST), 7 rate it “Buy”, 0 “Sell”, while 1 “Hold”. This means 88% are positive. GBX 790 is the highest target while GBX 523 is the lowest. The GBX 662.66 average target is 13.28% above today’s (GBX 585) stock price.

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC (LON:CRST) had its price target lifted by Barclays from GBX 646.10 ($9.30) to GBX 675.60 ($9.72) in a research report report published on Wednesday morning, MarketBeat reports. The brokerage currently has an overweight rating on the stock.

St. Modwen Properties plc (LON:SMP)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by stock analysts at Numis Securities Ltd in a report released on Tuesday, Analyst Ratings Net reports. They currently have a GBX 535 ($7.70) target price on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd’s price objective indicates a potential upside of 35.82% from the company’s current price

St. Modwen Properties plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:SMP had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ today by analysts at Peel Hunt. St. Modwen Properties plc are listed in the Financials sector within UK Main Market. Peel Hunt have set a target price of 515 GBX on its stock. This indicates the analyst now believes there is a potential upside of 28.8% from today’s opening price of 400 GBX

Very, very strong results- impressive. I think some of the great news has been masked by the fact that the CEO is retiring as he will be hard to replace. That being said, the figures are impressive. A 27% surge in NAV takes us to 413.5p and 446p on an EPRA NAV basis. Can't see us trading at a discount for too long as brokers absorb the figures over the next few days. GLA

Full year results tomorrow, we know they will be good.. but just how good? Should be enough to get us back over £4 and back towards the £4.50-£5 range IMO, considering the NAV is likely to have grown to c. 432p. That would place us on a p/b multiple of just 0.9, or equivalently trading at a discount of c. 9% to the NAV on a p/e ratio close to 4. Again, considering the hidden value locked in the balance sheet here and the fact the NAV is likely to swell to 480p by Oct 2016, we really should be nearer (or indeed above) £5 than £4, and on that very basis I too have felt very comfortable topping up at the levels over the past few days. GLA tomorrow; remember any price movement is likely to take place over the coming days and weeks rather than being fully reflected in the share price tomorrow itself as it will take brokers time to digest the figures and revalue this stock. Patience will pay off here!

Most broker targets are generally seen as a 12 month price targets. Macroeconomic and firm specific events can change growth and earning trajectories and it is therefore necessary to constantly revise these valuations. As you have seen, brokers have been upgrading Crests price targets based on its strong results and bullish update. I don't think anyone takes these price targets at face value, I certainly don't! What is more important though, and what we can take from them, is that almost every broker is very bullish on Crest which confirms that they too recognize the strong potential in this share. It's not a price forecast, its a share price valuation/12 month price target. No one is trying to predict the exact price!

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC (LON:CRST) had its price objective lifted by stock analysts at Goldman Sachs from GBX 750 ($10.69) to GBX 755 ($10.76) in a research report issued on Friday, MarketBeat.com reports. The brokerage presently has a “buy” rating on the stock. Goldman Sachs’ target price points to a potential upside of 38.03% from the company’s previous close.

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC (LON:CRST)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by equities research analysts at Peel Hunt in a research note issued on Tuesday, Analyst Ratings Network.com reports. They presently have a GBX 675 ($9.62) price objective on the stock. Peel Hunt’s price target would suggest a potential upside of 22.12% from the company’s current price.

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC (LON:CRST) had its price objective boosted by Barclays from GBX 646.10 ($9.21) to GBX 675.60 ($9.63) in a research report issued on Wednesday, MarketBeat.Com reports. The firm presently has an “overweight” rating on the stock. Barclays’ target price would indicate a potential upside of 25.11% from the company’s current price.

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC (LON:CRST) had its price objective raised by equities research analysts at Jefferies Group from GBX 719 ($10.24) to GBX 740 ($10.54) in a research report issued on Wednesday, AnalystRatings.Net reports. The firm currently has a “buy” rating on the stock. Jefferies Group’s price objective suggests a potential upside of 37.04% from the company’s previous close.

Wow- stunning set of results beating analyst forecasts. Wonderful rise to boot. Very, very pleased here!

Crest results out tomorrow! Fingers crossed for some good news for us and the sector!

Sorry to burst your bubble sharetrooper, but you are wrong. UK properties are not coming down anytime soon. There is a structural deficit of houses in the UK with demand increasing faster than supply can keep up. This coupled together with rising real incomes and the fact that interest rates will remain lower for longer will only ensure house prices continue to rise as already widely foretasted, and those buying into builders at these levels will be handsomely rewarded over the coming months and years. Buy now before you regret it!