For all- IC latest view16 Aug 2015 18:54
Simon thompson latest view, feel it is conservative myself but positive none the less:
"Shares in Inland Homes (INL: 71p), the specialist housebuilder and brownfield land developer, are tantalisingly poised to take out the May high of 73.5p and make progress to my initial target price of 80p, and potentially my break-up value of 100p a share.
If you followed my advice to buy the shares at 23.5p in my 2013 Bargain share portfolio (‘How the 2013 Bargain shares fared, 7 February 2014), I would resist the temptation to bank the 200 per cent paper gain just yet as some positive newsflow is likely to emerge in the next six weeks which should underpin the rally further.
Firstly, investors are only just cottoning on to the 25 per cent profit upgrade following a pre-close trading update ahead of the release of full-year results next month. Ahead of that release, analyst Duncan Hall at broking house finnCap now expects the company to have increased revenues by 146 per cent to £98m in the 12 month period to end June 2015 and deliver a 74 per cent rise in pre-tax profits to £15m. Based on a lower tax charge of 20 per cent, compared to 34 per cent in fiscal 2014, this means that EPS is set to rocket from 2.7p to 6.1p and supports a 50 per cent hike in the dividend to 0.9p a share. On this basis, Inland’s shares trade on less than 12 times historic earnings and offer a dividend yield on 1.3 per cent.
But if you run through the numbers, it’s clear to me that the robust south east of England property market is set to underpin a strong outcome for the current financial year to end-June 2016 too. That’s because land sales in the year just ended brought in proceeds of £39m and achieved £90,000 per plot for the 433 plots disposed of with planning permission.
However, Inland has continued to grow its land bank since the financial year-end. So even after accounting for the sale of consented plots and residential units, it now stands at over 5,000 plots together with a significant amount of commercial space, including sites held within joint ventures and managed on behalf of the Drayton Gardens joint venture in west London. Marking consented land to market value and factoring in the value of investment and commercial properties held at their open market value, which are now bringing in £2m of rental income, I reckon that Inland has a break-up value of at least £200m, or 100p a share.
Land undervalued in balance sheet
For instance, the company has recently received a resolution to grant planning consent for 351 residential plots at the former Meridian TV Studios in Southampton. Planning applications for 329 residential plots across eight development sites are currently being considered by various local authorities with further applications for 1,196 residential plots to be made in the near future. However, land inventories were only in the books at £68m at the end of December, so as land