Member Info for Jollifant

The raging debate on the predicted revenue from Saltfleetby is ridiculous, tedious and distracting. The facts are out there and if all goes to plan then £25m annual revenue is the realistic figure and paying off the debt this year also a decent possibility. Don't be disappointed with these figures, they are potentially game changing for Angs and the sp.

The debate should be about progress to achieve these figures. All seems on track just now as the optimists will tell you but the pessimists point to previous failures and spread doubts. Both reasonable positions to take but the revenue argument should now be over.

ChasPB keeps posting about Balcombe for some reason. A complete sideshow just now. More compelling is the resumption of oil production at Brockham in May.

All this could of course be overridden next week by a t/o offer. Interesting times here.

Hi, does the company stand by the published CPR Saltfleetby figures – which calculate revenues at multiple times of the current company market cap even before the huge rise in gas prices – and can you promise shareholders this will be taken into account in any negotiations for the sale of the company and/or Saltfleetby? Asked on 30 January 2022

The Company continues to believe that the CPR (albeit with small adjustments for timing of First Gas) as published is a true and fair view. We are conscious that the NPV valuations shown are indeed well above our market capitalisation and we regularly point this out to interested parties.

The Hedge on gas production/sale of gas, is fixed for 36 months. a member on LSE chat board has stated that even if the loan is paid of early, The Hedge remains in place for the remainder of 36 months. Is this true? Asked on 20 December 2021

Yes, the hedge is for a fixed term on a declining balance which roughly aims to decline wiith the scheduled loan repayments. It would be very likely (asusuming we succeed in obtaining target production from the side track, itself 100% unhedged, and representing windfall gains at present forward gas prices) that the loan would repay earlier, but the hedge would be fixed on that scheduled loan amortisation profile.

However it would be open to the company to break or reset the hedge once the loan was repaid – although this would incur a normal mark to market charge – allowing for more dynamic hedging – i.e. picking particular moments to reset the hedge. The amount of hedged production after, say, two years would be less than c 25% of total production (including production from the sidetrack).

My calculations are monthly hedged revenue approx £337k. Monthly unhedged revenue from the sidetrack wells approx £2.7m. So £3m a month revenue is £36m a year. Pretty pretty good!

Sageman as you are the most conservative poster here perhaps you could suggest a possible t/o price, a possible Saltfleetby sell price, and a possible sp by the end of the year if neither of those 2 options transpire? Many thanks.

Maybe people selling to join the buying frenzy at POG? Peace talks in Ukraine great for that share of course and great for the people involved in the horrific war. Would lower fertilizer prices but small price to pay.

You spoke too soon. Buys have stalled and difficult now to sell any even after the drop. Positive news on peace talks in Ukraine maybe?

Strange calculation maddog. Worth £15m now. Monthly revenue from the gas alone conservatively estimated to be £5m a month. 7 years is 84 months so your figure of £60m is way low.

Currently can't buy a bean on HL. Can sell plenty. So why don't they just tick up the sp to create a market?

Significant drop from last months high of 3.15p and still some selling at these prices. Presumably the placing shares being offloaded. Hope they clear soon.

Whichever side of the fence you are on it's still a gamble. My main concern after watching the MB interview was that he was sowing the seeds for a delay at Heron. The contractor has a backlog, waiting to see when they can fit us in etc.

Patience is key, fundamentals are great, but delays are damaging.

More likely still selling placing shares. Where you getting your peace deal optimism from?

Would expect he would have said if any samples from Red Setter already sent to the lab. So basically the next RNS will be drilling restarted at Red Setter which takes us back to where we were on Dec 9. Be the middle of summer maybe before any results are back. Patience game.

Poulden did say in the RNS 'and I look forward to the re-start of drilling at Red Setter'. Restart suggests some already done.

Always a good sign when the idiot de rampers show up.

i was referring to the trades at 4.65p. Buys for sure.

Late reported large buys have just shown up from an hour ago which could explain it.

Well it's reached 7.60p on some big buys going thru. Interesting.

Stupid post but then looking at your doom and gloom posting history on a variety of shares then at least you are consistent.

Any news, good or bad, affecting the sp has to be issued in an RNS and not announced without one at an AGM.

Yawn....

Will arrive when it arrives. Normally an intra day rns here anyway. Oz very strict on Covid so delays to be expected.