Member Info for Jollifant

Yanis the delivery driver will send you a txt msg 30 minutes out from arrival to ease your increasing obsession!

HITS you're the tragic one. You repeat the same post many times a day every day. How sad and bitter your life must be. All this time spent on a share you're not even invested in. BTW your barchart web address can't be found.

Thanks HITS for pointing this out for the thousandth time! Your consistency and persistence is admirable especially as you are not invested here.

Great reply, many thanks. However even the best case scenario gives Mercuria the upper hand, have Angs by the short and curlies and gives them far more than they deserve. Guess that's cut throat business practise.

Seems very unfair that Mercuria should 'earn' £39m a year from the hedged gas according to Hits. For doing diddly squat apart from the loan.

Obviously the hedge was negotiated before gas prices soared. Is there a chance maybe that the hedge can be renegotiated to more favourable terms to Angs? Mercuria would still make a killing even if it was reworked to be more fairly proportioned.

I disagree. The drop was originally manufactured by the MM's today on what was good news that SOU had dropped out. Down 22% at the off but quickly recovered.

The progress update RNS not fully digested yet. Buyers next week as all on track to deliver gas in June.

HITS GL stated clearly in the interview 1.5m therms of gas from June onwards. The title of that interview was misleading, not GL.

T/O Offer? If so from who? Shell we dream? SOU who don't seem to be able to afford anything worthwhile? A third party?

Extension or no offers?

At the moment it's possible to sell millions at the bid price. Seems they want the shares for buyers.

To buy out Angs at 2p then SOU would have to offer over a billion shares, 60% on top of the current issue amount. Can't see that going down well either here or there. Personally i prefer the Shell offer lol.

I don't think people are invested here for a low ball SOU offer so i doubt they would sell on that news. In fact for many including me it would be good news as there is more upside in the gas production than anything SOU can afford to offer.

Gavin i'll buy you a barrel of beer if you are right! My gut feeling is i will be calling you al sorts of dreadful names on Friday.

I suspect Gavin was 'aving a giraffe!

HITS in this world so much can change in a few months. Mounting pressure on countries, in particular Germany, to shut off the Russian gas. Will only mean price increases.

So that's 765p a therm by end of July? Jeez i don't think HITS and his spreadsheet will like that idea.

Nhawan and Bottom_feeder are 2 more de rampers trying to spread false rumours of a 1b share placing. Lies and nonsense. Ignore them!

Hits in different posts you stated 'So... it remains all about the sidetrack being successful. That's crucial, because if it's not, Mercurial will be owed around £600k per month on swap contract/hedge shortfall from October and for the next 8 months following that.'

Followed by 'Of course if the sidetrack us unsuccessful, that then means ANGS share of revenue from the field drops to approx £350k per month (1.5 million therms x 0.45p x 51%).'

So which is it? Are you assuming in the first case that an unsuccessful sidetrack will also stop all gas production?

Have given you the benefit of the doubt so far but beginning to believe to lose faith in your statements that seem deliberately confusing and negative.

'So it is our view that the hedged production should be able to be covered by these two wells in the event of failure of the sidetrack.' From the Angus web site.

Thanks for pointing that out DaveysShares. Just easier to use revenue as difficult to predict actual profit. My post was highlighting HITS conservative sp prediction. Let's say earnings were £12m, half the revenue. A p/e of 10 gives mcap of £120m, a p/e of 15 gives mcap of £180m. That's not crazy is it?

SillyButtons i don't see this as boom or bust, there are many shades of grey in between. To end up subsiding the hedged gas would mean initial production delayed until some time in July or later. That's approx a 2 month delay from what is expected at the moment. Not ideal but the end game is still the same.

Initial problems with the sidetrack would mean the loan repayment taking longer but again once sorted the end game remains the same.

So yes delays and unforeseen problems would cause the sp to drop but eventually recover once sorted. Only something catastrophic would cause a bust scenario imho.

HITS i know your a conservative fellow but how do you only come to the figure of 5p a share if all goes to plan here?

You said earlier today annual revenue £24m. This will increase as the loan is paid off and the hedged gas reduces. Also doesn't include oil sales from Brockham and other projects down the line,

But let's keep to the £24m figure for now and the load paid off. 5p a share is mcap of £65m. So you are assigning a P/E of 2.7?