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Howard - the tender provides for an upfront payment for the oil, 2 week price reviews (up or down tied to brent) and an extension of the six months initial contract if required - so the income should be pretty steady once the contract is signed. As far a testing start date is a concerned, I would expect/hope that they have either already started or it's imminent - they don't need to have a formal contract to do that, the contract is actually the smart way to go to reduce risk as it takes all the difficulty of selling/transporting the oil away whilst ensuring they are getting the best possible price.

ONGC have released another tender doc ( they really do everything formally), this one is probably the most interesting from a Amer shareholder perspective as it provides an indicative average production over the next six months of 3200bpd. That's approximately 1000bpd net to Amer. Clearly its a guess and peak production could be much higher (they are not the type of company to over-egg), after all it is a test and I suppose they will stop producing on occasion to test pressures etc - it's not an exercise in producing as much as they can. I suppose as our CEO said , it is better in the long run to do this properly rather than quickly Interesting also that the buyer will provide the tankers from the well site and the price varies in accord with a formula based on Brent crude. The effective sales period is from the 1st October, which suggests they forgot to ament a tender document that should have been issued earlier IMO - I assume they have already secured local buyers for the oil in the short term and their company procedures require a formal tender process. The terms are in ANNEXURE - I from Pg4 http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TENDERDOC-Oil-sale-Revised-dates.pdf

Announced yesterday "Colombia Update � Reset of the Putumayo-14 Contract" extending deadlines by several years. Interesting that they got a really good reset of work requirement (bodes well if Amer need to ask for leeway in the future) showing government support for oil companies - and they are looking for a farm in partner. They are, I suppose, a potential client for the OBA in the long term but I don't think Amer would be interested in their block unless it was going for a song - but who knows. Will also be interesting to see the terms of any farm in deal they get for an unproven field which they say on their website has structures analogous to Platanillo. http://www.gulfsands.com/colombia-update-reset-of-the-putumayo-14-contract/

do seem hamstrung by their need to put out every aspect to a very formal competitive tender - Amerisur must also obtain quotes/tender responses but I'm sure it's much quicker and responsive, probably also results in better prices and more opportunity for innovation.

ONGC have released a new tender invitation on their website - it's for water sprinkling of roads on which the oil will be tanker transported. Though minor in itself, it IMO it tells us a few things. First I suppose the oil is not being sold at the well head and the operator is responsible for transport, perhaps they have already done some trail runs an realise dust is generated. But more interestingly, they say they will be using 15 to 20 tankers - that's a lot of capacity (I believe tanks hold about 200 barrels) so approximately 4000 barrels and suggests they expect some significant base production and bearing in mind the delivery will be in the local area a tanker should do a few runs/day if production surpasses expectations. Interesting also are the water loading points, which are 1. Cabuyaro town 2. Creek El Boral, 3. Loto-1 well Location 4. Humea River. Loto -1? Though it is relatively close that's a strange location, perhaps the partners may now decide to re-test the well as they previously said they would, if they could manage to get the oil to move perhaps tankers could be deployed there to set up production now that the company has an operation close by. As I recall Loto 1 produced heavy oil with a high water cut and was supposedly a potential producer if other prospects in the area provided economies/synergies - that is now the case, I suppose Mariposa oil could even be blended with it. There was a good net pay as I recall. After Loto 2 the company RNSed that there could be an oil mobility problem (it is heavy oil) and the Llanos aquifer was producing all the output - I'm not an oilman but picture water migrating up the hole whilst the oil simply sits trapped in the rock. I got the impression that they believed there was a lot of oil there theyb simply didn't know how to get it out. I read an acticle from a few years ago about the problem to water production in Llanos - in some areas is very high and there place is becoming and major water field (needs careful management). See RNS from a couple of years ago. Perhaps letting my imagination run away, but costs nothing. lol From scope of Work. pg 55: "The Long Term Test (LTT) Operation for MARIPOSA-1 Well in CPO-5 Block is planned for 180 days initially and can be further extended for similar 6 months. The produced oil from this well will be transported through the roads under Cabuyaro Municipality. The activity involves approx. 15 - 20 oil tankers moving through these roads for oil loading and dispatching from the site daily. And also the movement of service vehicles for various jobs and for mobilization of Surface equipment etc. to the well site from base as per need of jobs. Due to the movement of these vehicles on un paved or uncompact roads, to avoid the generation of dust, respiratory hazards and Transit Hazards (low visibility) water need to be sprinkled on these roads." https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news

Guys- yes it's a paid for interview so not harsh or even probing, but the CEO is still obligated to tell the truth. WRT the Mariposa news , first the timetable is beyond Amerisur's control and national companies like ONGC (and Indian companies in general) are notoriously slow. I have no doubt ONGC told our CEO a proposed date and most likely other aspirational dates - but I also believe the CEO wouldn't have commented on it if he didn't think it likely - why comment and look a fool a few weeks later? The point about no RNS, well it's always possible, But I would be highly surprised if the long term test start is not RNSed as it will potentially increase Amer production by about 30% ( biggest contribution ever) with the month end operational update perhaps providing flow rates. What any of us think really doesn't matter in the short term if we sit tight, the problem arises if the month end update includes any failures, Mariposa included.

Update on this could be any time - in his interview the CEO said this week then in the RNS by mid Oct. Note the word "by" - reads imminent to me. But it's all down to ONGC, I suspect the CEO will have give some leeway for ONGC as they are slow and he would avoid raising expectations at all cost. We have no reason to believe timescales will slip

I'm grad that production report is out of the way, should be plain sailing for the rest of the year provided they don't stumble across any more banana skins. SP easing is a combination of a softening oil price and the update I suppose, the direction of the oil price can change in an instant - all we need is for it to remain above $50/barrel.

I hope you're right - I see no reason why we shouldn't sail though to 30p and beyond if the BoD can only stop diluting great news with disappointment. I'd like to see 2 more monthly updates that dazzle us with out-performance and stop there (no caveats), then 26p will look very meagre IMO.

Colonel - I've seen that argument so many times, that it is cheaper to buy a company via shares that offer for asset. It is a deeply flawed argument though - it assumes the vast majority of shareholders will part with their shares for peanuts when in reality as soon as an interested party starts buying the SP rockets - hence it's not tried that often. I have seen it done via a proxy or group who are lined up in support of a bidder and sell large chunks of the company often to another proxy (hide a Billionaire's identify or links - it is dubious practice, even illegal if it can be proved but its very hard to prove. Also requires a dopy, complicit or distressed BoD. I think its safe to say Amerisur is not weak and GC for all his flaws is not dopy. It would be much easier for our Indian partner to make an offer and as a national oil company they wouldn't do the underhand trick above (Russian oligarch perhaps). Also taking an aggressive interest in a partner has other damaging implications, not least a soured partner relationship Frank_N_Furter - I really don't know what you are talking about, the company CEO has just said they don't need to raise capital for their disclosed programme - if it's for additional works or expansion I see no problem - if it is to shareholders advantage. Any placing would be proportionate to the purpose and add at least the same value. Your assertion can be directed at almost any company that is expanding and you'll be right sometimes.

Howard - good post and right to point out reason for being optimistic (there are many). Looking at the figures, I actually think it is possible for production to peak above 10000 bpd before years end. Current 7400 P21 say 700 Mariposa say 1500 Gives 9600 without over-egging it IMO, at slight out-performance and we're there.

There is an article on the telegraph website based on comments elsewhere (various web articles, notably CNBC interview with Helima Croft). Basically the telegraph are suggesting Venezuela, Iraq or Iran flashpoints could cause oil to soar - most notably Venezuela looks almost certain to crash into default in the next few months and apart from causing civil unrest their and causing an influx of refugees to Colombia it is suggested that oil prices may rise to between $70 and $80/barrel as production crumbles. The effect on Amerisur's (and other oilies) share prices could be equally dramatic. WRT to Iran, their recent missile test will not have gone unnoticed by the Israeli's who poured scorn on the nuclear deal they the world did to get sanctions lifted, They reserved the right to defend themselves, whatever anyone says, and with Trump making aggressive soundings and rubbishing the deal, it's not hard to imagine the Israeli's attacking unilaterally. What would that do to the oil price. As far as Iraq concerned, they, Iran (already done it) and Turkey have make it clear they will block hydrocarbon imports/exports to Kurdistan if they declare independence - could turn very nasty. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/02/this-hot-spot-could-push-oil-to-80-a-barrel-within-months-rbcs-croft.html

I suppose we should be thankful Monarch don't do Colombia flights - image how much lost production that would cause. Would wreck another month at least. lol On a much more positive note the RNS has masked a very significant development over the weekend as the leader of the last major rebel group announces a ceasefire until Jan - they are main group that attacks infrastructure and kidnaps people (not great for ex-pats and contractors). The Pope and catholic church played a major role in negotiations apparently so a Papal visit was a good development for Amerisur in the long run. BBC headline: "Colombia's rebel ELN begins first truce in over half a century" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41460202

Choppy - agree, in fact I find it hard to believe the papal visit had much impact. He has travelled around the world and not disrupted industry - why the middle of the Jungle should be affected god only knows. lol The company has never mentioned it but I think the anti Mining and Oil company referendum may have something to do with this lot, not just the crop replacement issue the company suggests. These Referendums are apparently spreading all over Colombia and within South America in general. Rather than stop operations permanently, in most cases its more of a case of using a lever to extract more goodies for locals and I suspect disrupting operations works a treat around and during the time of the votes.

I suppose some investors only realised about the September stoppages this morning, unless they picked it up from the presentation, other sounding from the company gave nothing away - another dent to sentiment after such a valiant effort from the CEO. They need to deliver on programme, excuses, valid or not, don't cut it anymore. I think the SP will recover soon, maybe even today, but it's shame for yet another operational update the great news (1000 bopd, flow rate of the now sorted well) has been overshadowed.

The production is disappointing, much more significant than they are trying to suggest, non-operation seem to be about 1/3 of the month, so a significant flare up IMO. All expected though so shouldn't have much impact on share price. Looks like ONCG are taking it nice and steady (Amer CEO though sooner) - typical Indian bureaucracy of a national flag carrier. As long as a couple of weeks doesn't drift further. Amerisur would do well to take over as operator - looks like every contract needs to go through ONGC's rigid tender system. WRT the earlier comment on analysts targets - it is no surprise their targets are low, they are mainstream entities that are not going to take any leap of faith in a frontier county where there has been/is disruption. Investors in this are not risk averse and will make their own decision taking advantage (hopefully) of the general market fears.

There where two large trades delay reported until after market close yesterday - they went through in the morning so I believe where buys. 1000000 and 1300000 so I think the largest in ages - who knows perhaps it could have been GC in action. All looking good IMO, Mariposa-1 test imminent.

If shorters are in deed giving up the fight that is good news in some respects, but I have never really seen a fall in short positions as a positive accept in that they must foresee an upward pressure and be reducing risk. Unless my understanding g of shorting is totally skewed once the shorts are in place all they have done is disguised some demand and effectively moved is forward as latent demand, and from their perspective, hopefully overwhelmed that demand to push the SP down heavily. If you think about it had all recent demand been down to buyers and not shorts closing we would still have that latent demand whereas we now have speculators sitting on the side-lines (unless they move on) ready to reset at a higher price. Someone please tell me if my logic is wrong (but I don't think it is), so shorts closing without the dramatic reversal in SP is IMO a missed opportunity - much better if they get stung in a dramatic rise led by heavy buying. Sorry I can't concur with the pleasure of others at the gentle rebalancing - I want shorters burned so badly they run for the hills, that's what they wanted for me when placing their short! Go for the jugular. lol

this morning but the slightly weakening oil price put the breaks on thin and most of the progress of other oil co's I guess we should be glad the SP now at least seems to be showing signs of life - a long way to go yet though, 30p+ surely if they close the year well. I'm pretty happy with the response to the news, I must say I was fearing the worst, but now things are to some extend clarified we can be a little more confident.

If they do get Mariposa-1 on production in the next week or so or anytime in October it will have a dramatic effect on production - should be at least 1000 barrel/day to Amer and possibly a lot more as it was not tested to full capacity in the initial trail and the company said the well head pressure suggested there was more potential. It should at least make production up to the elusive 7000 barrel/day target.