Member Info for jointhedots

Megan1 - I really don't blame you for mot being inclined to invest at the moment, you a one of what I suspect is ac sizeable group of watch and wait investors. It would be very interesting to know from you and others what would be a clear signal(s) to buy, I and other shareholders have speculated what is holding this back, apart from the obvious seller resistance, but our views swayed by having money tied up and we don't play much of a part in driving the SP. It's actually reassuring that there are potential new investors, it's awful when you feel you are simply talking to yourself on the BB, some boards go for weeks without a post.

Megan1 - no one can give you an answer, none of us know where the SP is going. I'm in because I believe the SP will recover once the management pull them selves together, the pipeline is a prime example of their sloppy implementation of winning strategies - it should have send the SP much higher but did the opposite because of delay after delay then slow admission that they had failed to secure sufficient throughput. Thoroughly incompetent IMO. The SP has been trashed, it's woeful. Posing the question, is that a bad thing for a potential investor? It shouldn't be, but we're right back to management's (future) performance again, if you believe they will achieve anything like decent progress over the next year then there is no reason the SP will not rise strongly, anyone that believes they will continue to screw up should avoid. The prize is there for the taking IMO and I'm expecting a meaningful rise in SP, but as ever with AIM companies the management are expert at screwing thing up. I reckon you can answer the question yourself, as we all have.

Good ole Rex, knocking the SP down again. He obviously wants a price 17p plus or there about, whilst I suppose of parties interested in increasing positions will let him squirm and struggle to get a good price. If I where running an investment company I'm sure I would be fully aware of his stance and try to exploit it - it's a slow painful process in the absence to some significant news or an institution prepared to buy him out wholesale. I think it's reasonable now to assume he will sell up altogether as soon as he can get out. It all begs to question of where the SP would be without his influence - I suspect double.

BaysilHope - You have me confused again, are you have a dig at me? Am I the nerd you refer to? " JTD I've clocked this with Velo, won't forget. Utter merd. GNY HNY." Clocked what? The way you construct your sentences and use TWA's leaves ambiguity in your inferences for me, we don't all know them but I do know FFS. Anyway, I can clarify that I have never said other companies in Colombia are better investment than Amer, I have said they have performed better operationally over previous years, Furthermore, your assessment that debt is some sort of curse is completely skewed, debt is a desirable feature ifv the company uses it well to fund growth and add value for shareholders and growth companies often don't make profits for years, as with Amerisur - the problem with this in respect to Amerisur is that that haven't grown as promised b, YET.

bakoven - I'm in total agreement I've worked as manager in a jungle location where I was advised to get off the site as quickly as possible as the company had delayed in sending the locals wages through, usually nice guys but a lynch mob when they've not been paid. lol You simply take appropriate action to deal with any situation. It really does fill me with envy and annoyance when I see what Amer's peers are achieving - our management really need to step things up, but for now lets assume they are ready to spring into action any day now. Like a coiled spring rather than dead duck.

Yet again, lots of little automatic trades push the SP down, then a purchase of 500,000 just after 9am doesn't even cause a flutter. I believe it suits certain groups to have the SP at rock bottom, led by the MMs who can waltz it back up again when it suits to boost their profits. IMO little can be done here or elsewhere unless to Government tightens up on unethical behaviour by those that make the market. Annoying but I suppose we'll just have to live with it until the upward pressure becomes irresistible, it happens with all AIM and some targeted FTSE companies. It was tried on with Glencore WRT their debts but the very strong management response form some very rich management saw those that tried to drive the company to oblivion disappear quick style. Amerisur management also needs to be strong and show no weakness, informing the market of what is going on early helps greatly - spreading the positive message is the only defence. I think GC is far to passive and should instigate a share buy-back arrangement now we have healthy revenues, even if it is never used it is a weapon to fight with. It would surely be massively value enhancing to remaining shareholders, better than buying any more assets.

It's frustrating how the SP of oil companies struggle to follow the oil price up and have never truly reflected to improvement, especially in the case of Amerisur with it's SP less than it was when oil was almost half the price. Yet when there is the slightest retrace in oil share prices gets mercilessly slaughtered immediately. It really doesn't make any sense. It has created many huge anomalies in the sector, not least with Amerisur which is totally disconnected from market fundamentals. These anomalies must surely represent major investment opportunities, though we are all perhaps too brow beaten to see it. Marcy keeps harping on, and he is not swayed in his belief by the current apathy and neither am I, the short term is totally unpredictable. I really believe Amer would fare better with a lower oil price that is steady, volatility is used by adversaries to wring out every last opportunity to punish the SP - perhaps some hedging would reduce these short term effects, the fear factor is incredibly powerful, hence the occasional troll suggesting impending disaster, and it needs taming

This time it is not specifically for CPO-5 as they have operations in other locations, they want a bullet proof car and escort/driver to travel around the country, presumably in and out of hot spots, maybe those on the map I posted yesterday. Looks like they probably can't get anyone with the right credentials to do the country manager job without it, he/she will I suppose have to travel all over the country (30000km/annum mentioned), sunny, scenic or not I wouldn't do it in an open top vehicle. I suppose they may also host senior company official occasionally too. lol As far as other staff are concerned, the plebs gat an ordinary car (it is an Indian company after all), Just highlights that it is perhaps prudent sometimes to keep a low profile as Amerisur do, I have criticised Amerisur in the past, but safety of personnel has got to be top priority. Our operations are no where near ONGCs by the way.

needs to start working on some of the proposed wells, the longer they delay the more potential revenue is lost, there is no excuse why they cannot press on now - there is no point criticising the our Indian partner when Amerisur's drilling programme is running at a snails pace. They're hardly expensive holes and they've had years to prepare. One of my biggest concerns is the pace of this, can't they multi-task?

a bit more: I didn't mention that the shutdown is the rebels attempt to restart peace talks not a message that action is going to escalate, the government ended the talks and refuses to restart after some police where killed. Hopefully things are coming to a head, but the government wants to appear tough as they initially lost a referendum on the FARC peace deal because the people through they where too soft, I believe this will settle during 2018. Rex Tillerson has just praised Colombia on his tour, US support is a tremendous boost.

As we discussed rebels and attacks yesterday I think it's worth simply clarifying what's going on. The biggest group FARC have agreed peace and surrendered, the only other significant group is ELN, a Marxist/supposedly religious group that specialise in attacking government infrastructure and kidnapping whilst terrorising locals and trafficking drugs. The impact on locals is that they can't make a living from honest work hence they also riot and cause trouble out of fear of losing livelihoods. Recently ELN signed a temporary peace deal brokered by the Pope and entered talks. Those talks recently broke down because the government is not prepared to give them the concessions the demand. Their reaction has been to cause as much trouble as they can, they appear to be trying desperately to stay relevant and I believe they will come back to negotiations sooner or later or risk fading away - that's my take on it. The linked article explains their next step, an economic shutdown of areas they control for 3 days. Scared locals will most likely do it, but it smacks of desperation to me. Anyway the reason for all this from me is that the article also includes an interactive map of rebel controlled areas and Amerisur's operations are nowhere near it at least 40miles away from anything. The nearest licence is Coati which is non-operational and west of San Miguel which provides a good point to tie to Amerisur presentations and the ELN map. I decided to explain this because we periodically get someone throwing is unsubstantiated claims, IMO if Amerisur is impacted by rebels in the future it is more likely to be a prudent shutdown than a real attack. I have always believed the prudent shutdowns have been the result of local unrest which flares up periodically as they want a bigger share of the benefits from the activities of extractive industries, these locals have got nothing and the government takes all the money form oil - hence oil and mining companies spending on local social projects and emergencies to try to maintain a good relationships Apologies for stating the obvious to most investors, but we do hopefully get newbies visiting the BB. https://colombiareports.com/eln-announces-shutdown-regions-control/

tom111 - very detailed appraisal from you there mate. We are all acutely aware of the social issues, but you make general connections that don't exist in press reports, your comment ssumes Colombia is one large oilfield being attacked, when each region has it's distinct identity, issues and be hundreds of miles apart, attacks on infrastructure are largely aimed at the government, even attacks on private infrastructure are aimed at the state. To my knowledge Amerisur's facilities have never been attacked and previous shutdowns were simple a prudent measure when crop replacement disagreements with locals where resisted. I pointed out yesterday what is really happening having read many articles, there is NO indication that any infrastructure in any part of the locality is being attacked. This has been going on for decades and is now largely associated with negotiation pressure from a rebel group, and pains associated with the fight against drugs. It is so easy to throw in a unproved threat, nothing has changed, the most significant attack was not even in Colombia or on infrastructure, it was a tit-for-tat attack on police attributed to a disgruntled drug baron(rebel) whose business has been targeted by police. Nothing has changed

Apparently the Colombian authorities have just announced that 15 onshore licences which were to be bid on imminently have been delayed until 15 March in an effort to attract more bidders, according to local press. Looks like if Amerisur wants more territory there should be cheap opportunities. Rebels have been up to their old tricks attacking infrastructure and police, though not near our operations. Apparently, one ex FARC rebel (drug trafficker) has also attacked police in Ecuador, again nowhere near Amerisur. I believe this is a first and has caused Ecuador to strengthen ties with Colombia after 5 police officers where killed. In a warped sort of way I suppose it is good news for securing Amersur's transit route. Our neighbour Geopark have announced yet another huge increase in reserves. must to our turn soon. and finally, spare a thought for poor old Rex Tillerson who is apparently visiting South American countries, drumming up support for the fight against drug and for oil sanctions against Venezuela, all good, except back home in the US Trump is busy undermining him by apparently threatening to cut off aid which is predominantly used to fight drugs to the likes of Colombia. The guy has also had to visit Mexico and Haiti, countries which the president says will respectively pay for US infrastructure(the wall) and are allegedly a shit hole. You couldn't make it up, the president looks intend on destroying relationships whilst his man has to wing it, if there isn't at least one war, or serious falling out, before the end of him presidency I would be very surprised. The impacts for oil and Amerisur are totally unpredictable but most likely to make oil soar. I bet Rex wishes he'd stayed at Exxon, he allegedly called Trump a Moron for undermining him previously. The world is a scarier place than ever it was in the cold war, with targets for potential US provocative action includes a number oil producers. I think it is pertinent to mention US diplomacy because it does currently help drive the oil price by ratcheting up fear or confidence in the market.

Velo - 17.6 - 17.64 Such a tight spread is unheard of for AMER in recent times, I just tried a test sell and the quoted price is correct - suggest to me that the MM's are in buying more and want shares for the next up trend. If the trend where down they would increase the spread to protect themselves from a falling price IMO.

BaileyClark - do not despair, we may be in the doldrums, in fact we are clearly in the doldrums, but there are distinct signs of change. First the SP fall is only in line with other sector companies and we recently have fared better than some of our peers. - Our management are showing signs of truly believing that things are on the up, via share purchases statements and interviews etc - Less pronounced instant slapping down of any rise, maybe associated with the renewed II interest soaking up excess capacity and maybe the influence of our big seller waning or ceasing. - Operational progress is good and there a loads of potential improvement that are likely this year. I think optimism is warranted and barring the actual SP all is looking good, what we tend to forget is that recoveries are often inexplicable and creep up on investors because there is no warning, catches some out who sit on the side-lines. I know of no specific reason why the SP will rerate but on the other hand I know no reason why not - Amerisur SP has moved several pence in a session for no apparent reason in the past, it can happen again. So I think a catalyst (visible) would be great but don't think we necessarily think something dramatic is necessary for a recovery, simply a buyer or buyers to quietly enter the fray and drive the price, there is reason enough already

This time for water treatment and disposal for Indico-1 and Mariposa-1, so they envisage testing of Indico and are hopefully prepping for it to avoid delays, at last they've woken up. It is surprising that there is no contract already in place already for Mariposa-1 and in fact it is only a possibility that services will be required in March, surely demonstrates the incredible low water cut, they may not even need the services and are simply being prudent to include the option, they say "services may be required in the well Mariposa-1". The low water cut is at work here and the read across could be that there is so little water that they are reluctant to formally contract it's disposal, and perhaps they are planning to up the production in March (higher potential water make) when the service is envisaged as being required, see statements below. WRT Indico-1 the envisaged start date of May 2018 most likely suggests a spudding date in April or even late March, as its for well testing of 40days and the statements also indicate it could be earlier. The pace is not going to dazzle anyone but as long as it's no later this will be exceptional good progress of our snail-speed partners, and IMO indicates they are now committed to with oil field. I suppose we could be getting well results and an indication of well flow rates as soon at May. There tenders are proving to be a good source of background information an development intent IMO. Extracts: "1. OBJECTIVE ONGC VIDESH LIMITED SUCURSAL COLOMBIANA (ONGC-VL from now and onward), wishes to award the contract for Produced Water Management services (Transport, treatment and disposal) (Bundled Services-4) of one exploratory well Indico-1X in CPO-5 Block, Meta Department in Colombia. However, similar services may be required in the well Mariposa-1 (also in CPO-5 block), where long term testing (LTT) is underway." and "4. START OF OPERATIONS Tentative date of commencement of Produced Water Management (Transport, treatment and disposal) services required for Indico-1X and Maripsa-1 well, are in May 2018 and March 2018 respectively . The exact date of required services covered in the bundle will be intimated by ONGC-VL. However, the service would be availed before or later of proposed dates for each well upon award of contract."

Though disappointing, is simply a reflection of the general market weakness, it is beyond any control by Amer, the broader future depends on the company's performance IMO as the market will recognise and the over-reaction to the general market fall will correct - oil prices are still at near multi-year highs. It would be a buying opportunity if I had any more cash. lol WRT the RNS I fail to see why anyone would query workovers to improve well performance, it is to be applauded and a perfectly reasonable action which they fully explained in a previous RNS. The key point for me is how well the treatments have worked in restoring production, to me it signifies that there is no discernible deterioration in field performance and bodes very positively for the future. I would also add to Baysilhope's post that we are supposedly going to get a reserves update.

that the SP is down today, it will recover, the full response to news takes a few days to become evident as invariable some sell and move on. Indico -1 is supposed to spud this quarter, that should generate some excitement.

Excellent performance IMO. I think the RNS needs taking as a whole, no nasties and production excellent, lots achieved whilst necessary planned maintenance was undertaken, The work done on well work overs is very encouraging in resect to the excellent responses and that they can now optimise flowrates. WRT CPO-5, 3250 barrels/day is well over 1 million barrel a year with revenue of the order of $75m+ at current oil prices - and without breaking sweat, well costs are likely to be recouped in a matter of months. Once (if) substantial reserves are proved I suspect the partners will pepper the area with wells. They've not even tried to ascertain maximum production potential yet, perhaps because the logistics for clearing the oil are not yet in place. It will all unfold this year I'm very pleased this morning - irrespective of the direction of travel of the SP, there is lots to be optimistic about

"Administration costs are always far more in the first half of the year." That's because they book their summer holidays in the new year, they need to do it to get the top class hotels and flight seats. In the second half they are a way with the kids for the 6 week school break, that pushes costs down when they stop spending our money. I think I'm right. Great news from ONGC Jux, I saw it over the weekend, they always seem to issue it at weekend for some reason, thanks for posting.