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Glut or Shortage? Depending on which article you read we are guided in both directions. I've read loads of articles and there are loads of potential problems that if correct suggest the confidence about supply and fracking in particular is severely misplaced. FRACKERS 1) Frackers have targeted sweet spots with potentially negative effect on eventual production - parent wells produce well but child wells(follow up wells fade our much more quickly. (anyone who has working in extractive industries should known there is a price to pay down the line 2) Investors have accepted pumping money into expansion with no return due in part to low interest rates and promises, frackers will have to get real and become profitable soon. 3) The Permian, main area of expansion apparently has a serious bottleneck (OBA type situation) approaching as the main pipeline transporting oil to refineries is at near maximum capacity. 4) The oil refining capacity is not suitable for the fracked oil and maximum capacity will be reached soon, apparently one super-major is already planning a new refinery but they take years to build. 5) The cheap availability of services is coming to an end and the sector will be overwhelmed if expansion grows too rapidly- the economic gain so celebrated may well be lost. TAR SANDS 1) Apparently, the pipelines to the US from Canada are at full capacity and the railway company that took the surplus is now refusing to sign contract to transport it and there is alternatively more lucrative cargo - hence oil prices have collapsed along with production/growth 2) It is being abandoned by major as too difficult/insufficiently profitable 3) most serious is the lack to additional pipeline capacity likely to come on stream as project are delayed, check out the link below about the possibility of a major project cancellation, that could have a huge impact IMO. VENEZUELA and S America Production appears to be in decline across most of the continent with Venezuela falling off a cliff and about to be buried by US sanctions, US is their biggest market. Mexico production has also been falling. KASHGAN Production fell from 300,000 bpd to 180, 000 in March due to technical difficulties associated with gas injection. It is supposedly about to ramp up again, we shall see! The field is obviously world class and was touted as a 500,000 bpd field that appears a long way off MIDDLE EAST Well , name your hotspots, so many potential problems. I posted the other day that rebels had hit a Saudi pipeline, apologies it was actually a tanker. My personal guess for a disruption is Israel who I believe only need half an excuse to bomb Iran. Of course there are lots of factors on the bearish side, rising shale production, falling demand, high stocks, Russia/Saudi ramping up, but I see no reason why oil should revisit the lows of the last few year and could easily spike above $100 /barrel if a large source is disrupted anywhere in the world.

Can only be OBA, there is something very important everyone must now realise wrt sales. As we are batching around 2 months production the realised price will be able to be negotiated to coincide with higher prices as long as the oil price doesn't collapse. Amerisur are financially strong so will be able to hold the oil in storage which is great for maximising revenue, however cash balanced will fluctuate wildly so even the year end cash balance may be misleading - don't get upset if the headline figure disappoints, read carefully, if they're stocking as seems to be the case the cash will always understate true health of the company.

Thanks Samroy

brewing, IMO the SP fall is overdone and decent retrace to 16p a good possibility in the run up to the result Also on ADVFN someone suggested management should be buying shares - unfortunately they can't until all the news is out, that's results plus whatever else they may be keeping back. That was one of the things I'm annoyed about as they did their information dump, throwing us under a bus when they can't make any defence, no comment, no Malcy interview or share buying. I recall GC bought well over 20m shares in the open market when they previously trashed the SP (that's when he decided not to have his share options having already had a huge chunk, the ones declined were at a much higher price) not so much gracious as opportunist to opt for cheap ones IMO. The directors could easily take up RHs shares now (if he still has any) and even start a share buy back programme, much better that some imaginary dividend Malcy is wittering on about. With the SP now at a bargain basement price it would not surprise me to see some director purchases after the results, they buy to suit themselves rather than show solidarity and I think the price and stage is now set - that's assuming they don't award themselves a mountain of new shares. A poor SP is not a bad thing when you are in buying mode. Surely even they are not that hard faced. lol

Someone on the ADVFV bb said they were told the results are due on the 16th, in case anyone is concerned. An upward movement in the SP is likely in the run up as oil is firming. Oil looking exceptionally strong in the last couple of days up $2 and particularly in the last 30 mins, its now spiked near $70/barrel I don't know why, may be someone has (or has threatened to) bombed Syria.

Assuming the US and allies do strike Syria I reckon there could be an oil price spike. The Israelis and Trump are itching to go head to head with Iran, that's was probably led to the bombing yesterday - Israel probably already had targets and wanted to get in before any coalition developed and muddied the waters. I suspect Putin is miscalculating here(unless there is some hidden agenda, maybe an excuse to do something) as the Euphoria of election win seems to have emboldened him. The upshot is that the situation is starting to look very precarious and worries about oil supply can have a dramatic impact. Apparently rebels attacked a Saudi pipeline a few days ago, although there was no disruption, as we've seen in Colombia these things have a habit of spiralling out of control.

The price of oil continuing to bobble about in the high 60s - rose to a high of 68.5p this morning and jet Amerisur continues to be under the cosh. Unless GC was telling massive porkies in the Malcy interview, Amerisur must be making exceptionally good money at the current oil price - yes the news last week was a great disappointment the current SP is crazy on the basis of what we know. RH gets the blame for a lot of weakness, but if the BoD had performed in line with their projections RH would have been history by now. The good news is that they can still redeem themselves, be simply doing their jobs effectively. If I get the chance I shall support any challenge to get rid of GC and his side kick, I doubt there will be any option to do so though. But being realistic they'll stick like glue, riding the gravy train is a great trip to be on . It's always darkest before the dawn or so they say, things can change very quickly and I'm hoping this is the darkest hour for Amerisur,

Some very positive comments coming from Ecuador recently regarding oil licences and improving the investment environment. The attached link, dated yesterday, sums up the positive approach and level of interest, with 8 Canadian oil company's apparently interested and the majors expressing interest in the larger blocks Our peers in Llanos and Platanillo are Canadian so maybe they are interested - perhaps explains what GC was doing in Ecuador What is also interesting is that the government is already engaging with locals to smooth the process and sort out the tax regime - great attitude from a S.American government. Blue sky for us at the moment, but read across is that they will be at least positive about expanding Amerisur pipeline throughput as the appear to be getting sensible on commercial realities "Oil minister Carlos Perez announced that eight Canadian oil and gas companies are interested in bidding for the Intracampos blocks, including Canacol, Frontera and Madalena Energy. Do you expect that the Southeast round will attract bigger names? Yes, several world-class oil companies have already shown interest in the Southeast round, including Shell and ExxonMobil. This could mark the comeback of the big oil companies to the country. Minister Perez's leadership has restored Ecuador's credibility. We are also engaged in talks with the communities living close to the Southeast acreage to guarantee the success of the round." http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1656937

I suppose. But really this BoD now has such a long history of under-performance, missing targets and generally "pulling defeat from the jaws of victory", apt as it's a term I first heard in respect to a cricket match. Unfortunately, I think I'm going to find myself going on about this until someone gets fired or they accept some failings and resolve to improve (far too arrogant and secure for that I suspect) There is no acceptance of any failings, absolutely none, so does that mean we simply plod on without improvement, the SP went under half the year high value at one point today what massive destruction of shareholder value. How can we simply carry on as though all is rosy at the cottage. It is hard to defend, never mind like, this BoD, especially as oil is still at near multi-year highs and the SPs of our peer group are improving and most of us must by showing significant losses. If I thought this was a no hoper as someone just implied I would sell up, no qualms. but I honestly believe there is great potential here. Our problem is not running out of oil , it will be replenished (and I believe we currently have more years of reserves than many other operators in Colombia). IMO it's more to do with the lack of appetite and competence for dealing with the hard graft required to achieve a satisfactory outcome by our key BoD members - all other problems emanate from that. That's me done for the day, I shall whinge no more and look forward to a great day tomorrow. lol One last happy thought, perhaps they could they have done today's major data dump in preparation for some corporate action, a bid maybe?

I doesn't help that (IMO) there are clearly some big trades being hidden by the MM's - there is no way the pattern this afternoon is logical unless you insert some additional transactions to move the price. No doubt some large trade(s) will appear in the next few days.

BLUECLYDE - I'm not disputing that perhaps they are chasing their tail in Platanillo, in fact I said earlier the production has most likely plateaued. You went much further though in suggesting it is some sort of basket case where new wells would be simply replacing rapidly falling production - there is no evidence of that. I don't need to defend myself by having research credentials to justify having an opinion no one does, whilst justifying the opinion is something I did in my post. Incidentally, you pointing out they have spent millions maintaining production surely proves nothing in isolation as all companies in all sectors need to spend money simply to stand still - in fact production has been rising since the change to expansion mode, at a disappointing rate granted and start stop fashion but it is still well above where it was a year ago If anything the problem is that they haven't spend enough to grow the company, they adopted a prudent approach during the downturn and still haven't picked up the pace sufficiently IMO

BLUECLYDE - most of that's not strictly true. Yes they have drilled new wells but that has increased production. The new wells planned (as just RNSed) are outside he producing area and do not replace existing production wells. The current longstanding wells are getting workovers which as someone posted earlier is absolutely the correct thing to do. As for your other statements they are completely untrue, "keep the production declines in check but can�t. " , you can't possibly know that, it will be months until that becomes apparent or not. You say "the new well that is flowing the most has a tiny reserves amount it will be done in months!", I assume you mean Mariposa, that is also untrue. The small quantity of oil attributed to it at the moment is all that can be attributed until further proving of the area is undertaken, ONGC would not be excited is it was limited to a small quantity - all to play for. I think our BoD have made a point of underplaying everything in the RNS's lest we hold them to account for failing to deliver - I suspect Mariposa will start every early May, even April, if it's true (as stated) they are making very good progress, that's in line with contracted services tender docs - last time our BoD had to issue delay RNS's and they won't want to do that again. That's why all Amerisurs RNS's are totally lack-lustre IMO.

I think it will have been PI's resolve shaken this morning, I'm not going to point the finger at anyone and say they made a mistake though - we all had to react to what was a great surprise this morning, there is a school of thought that it is better to simply swallow losses and move on if things deteriorate. I'm in for the long term and never even contemplated selling. Now everything is out in the open (I hope) that we where expecting news about, with disclosure at least they have cleared the decks for the results and we can move forward.

The RNS about drilling mentions 3 wells in CPO-5 like it was fully reported previously, have I missed something? "As previously reported, the Company plans to drill three wells on three separate structures (Indico, Aguila and Sol) within the CPO-5 block during 2018. " It's the first I've heard of "Aguila", though I'm pleased they intend to drill it. Then the N sands on Platanillo really need to come good and based on what they are telling us that is a high possibility, 42 wells could be drilled so all to play for with no notified restrictions " modification allows the building of a 3.8 kilometre access road and six well pads, with up to seven wells per pad." I read about horizontal wells a few months ago, I'm sure it was one of our peers in Colombia, possibly in the Limestones so that also opens up interesting possibilities in the N sands Current Platanillo operations look like they have plateaued and will simply undergo reworks to maintain production - I suppose it was pretty obvious even before the RNS's today that the future expansion has to be further afield. So some good stuff, but what happened in Ecuador, Is that a secret, are we bidding for something or saw it perhaps simply mentioned by GC to highlight some involvement before the Cricket commitments kicked in. lol

I don't think anyone is over-reacting, that is perhaps a little condescending - I have not done anything other than express concern - not sold or bought. We are all rightly considering the RNS's. The reaction so far is pretty tame and we could still recover to the yesterday's price if no big investor decide they'll had enough. I think they are more robust than PIs though and will not be phased.

and I guess there are no more happy bunnies amongst Amerisur shareholders this morning You can't polish a turd and I'm not going to try with this one. They've dumped all the bad (not so much bad as disappointing) news they've been storing up, looks like getting all the skeletons out of the cupboard at once. Personally, I'm disappointed but at the same time pleased everything (I hope) is out in the open. It all basically amounts to underachieving, there is nothing that should surprise, it's simply that there are so many areas of delay or just missing targets/expectations management raised - none of it is terminal or should even worry long-term shareholders, EXCEPT the management's failure yet again to deliver after 11 years. Throughout the downturn and down-scaling of production of the last few years I would have thought Environmental Licenses could have been sorted out. IMO someone very senior on the BoD, preferably 2 of them should bite the bullet of be given the boot, if a certain person really has been enjoying the cricket whilst this is going on I can't see how any meaningful commitment can be claimed. How can anyone think this sort of thing is acceptable. There are some good points buried in the RNS's, but I'll leave that till later. I wonder if any of them will sit down with Malcy to discuss this.

BaysilHope - wrt your posts late Thursday night referencing my comments about Amer and other operators, you say: " you are banging on FFS on AMER" everything I said is true and I believe fair. You have got it in your head I favour those other companies over Amer and I'm somehow touting them -that is a long way from reality. I compare and contrast to highlight issues and opportunities that need addressing at Amer - I want things to change surely that is reasonable? I'm not in the camp that believes we should simply glorify the company and not dare talk about problems on the BB - it doesn't fool anyone and I don't wish to. I know when I post concerns some readers will immediately see me as the enemy, trying to gain some advantage and potentially destabilise SP weakness - that is absolute drivel and most likely driven by fear, we're all smart enough to recognise the problems. You say " So save it" lol, you want me to stop posting my views, that will make everything perfect I suppose. Shareholders recognising issues and putting pressure on our paid representatives (the BoD) is the only way we have to secure improvements and I applaud anyone that contacts them to make their feelings known - even if they don't respond it doesn't mean they don't take any notice. The "head in sand" mentality gets you nothing. Bay - I would also point out that last week there was also a positive article about another Colombian peer Gran Tierra (Dana Coffield's was previously CEO) by SeekingAlpha, I didn't post that link because I thought I had made my point, clearly not, Amerisur are being ignored in comparison surely you also wish to close the perception gap and see a better SP.

The link is to what appears to be an opinion piece on GC, I don't necessarily agree with or commend any of the allegations or have an opinion on the content, it appears to be from a cricket fan whose frustrations appear to align with some the Amerisur shareholders have, it's an interesting and apparently informed perspective if nothing else. Worthy of a read, I'm wary of posting it here as with some other comments in light of what is said. https://beingoutsidecricket.com/category/giles-clarke/

Whilst there is little change in SP from day to day and no news now we've crossed below 16p yet again, but I suppose every day that passes brings us closer to news and RH has less shares to sell. No news apart for Cricket of course. The link this time an article from another obscure publication "The Daily Mail" tells of why "England cricket chiefs quit in protest at chairman Colin Graves leaving ECB in turmoil... morale is at an all-time low" I'm sure Giles cant have anything to do with low morale, we're buoyant here. He'll sort it out, knock a few heads together in his role as President of the ECB (not the European Central Bank, I just googled it an came up with Maria Draghi, even Giles can't claim to be anywhere near that level on the greasy ladder lol) The article goes on: "But morale is said to be at an all-time low because counties who are not staging international matches or the new T20 tournament, starting in 2020, believe the ECB are cutting them adrift. I can't believe Giles is standing for the little guy being ignored and not getting a fair roll of the dice, totally out of character IMO. The article is not actually/specifically about Giles (the ones I've found are much more critical), but I thought it pertinent to post as he is clearly heavily involved in the ECB as President; and spookily I sometimes have a similar feeling of injustice and prevalent selfishness in high places wrt Amerisur's dealings with PI's, totally irrational I know. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/cricket/article-5551055/England-cricket-chiefs-quit-protest-chairman-Colin-Graves-send-ECB-panic-mode.html

BumblingFool - I believe it's his company founded together with Nick Harrison and they both appear to be active in the company as Chairman and Finance director ( http://www.westleighuk.com/people ). It's a holding company which appears to suggest that it either owns shares in Amerisur or one or more of our Directors represent it on our BoD - something I don't believe has been disclosed. In addition to it's investment companies Westliegh's website states: "The following companies are associated with Westleigh through minority investments and/or board representation:" there is a list of 4 companies including Amerisur. Does anyone know if any of our directors is supposed to represent any shareholder or shareholder group or be working in concert, what are the rules? I can't find any evidence of our directors disclosing any association or that their shares are part of a group working in concert etc, so perhaps it's simply a misleading statement Maybe there is no issue with this, but with the numerous directorships of the pair and GC's alleged intention to st0and for the most senior job in Cricket I'm believe we may not be getting the representation we need - in the 2016 report the status of both is left opaque and not properly justified IMO, I suspect because it's hard to justify the pay packets. I've got nothing against either director, I'm sure they a excellent at their jobs, but I have severe reservations about how much time they can devote to Amerisur business as we attempt to grow to rival the success of our peers.