Member Info for JohnNth

Ukraine counter-offensive is set to fail big time. You only have to type counter-offensive in google news and see the headlines. Only positive voices are those coming from Ukraine govt; everyone else outside Ukraine either says Ukraine will fail or have significant doubts.

Everyone other than bug-blue that is!

Time to talk peace........

Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-counteroffensive-flops-as-troops-have-only-moved-six-miles-behind-russian-lines/ar-AA1fw4SO?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c70731d61aec43cb96fae246187c28bc&ei=9

"Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, said: "I don't think that you'll hear an argument from anyone that this is going well right now or that this is heading to a place that people would view as good, but there is not much by way of plan B."

WRONG...bug-blue thinks the offensive is going great guns.

Thanks urai5. Very interesting and I think disposal will happen in less than 6 months subject to approval from Russian authorities.

Further, comments regards Kaz business..

"Although Russia accounts for just over three-quarters of Polymetal’s production volumes, the Kazakh unit contributed more than half of the group’s net profit and provided all of the cash flow in 2022, due to the US sanctions against the Russian company in May."

Currently, trading environment is deteriorating slightly in Kaz given 15.9% inflation rate and yet Kaz Tenge is holding up well against US$ at 450 to the dollar. This means whilst Russia is delivering significantly higher profits due to US$/Ruble exch rate, Kaz business is not matching it due to strong Tenge and higher inflation, both cutting into profits.

Nevertheless, diversification from Russia has to happen. Nesis has rules out Africa or South America, and did mention expansion within Kaz and other Asian republics like Uzbekistan; so we await further news.

Bug-blue you ignorant fool; the countries you are referring to, like Iraq and Libya were invaded illegaly; without the UN mandate and founded to be so by their own internal enquiries after the wars in each respective country involved including in the US and UK. Yet you are still pushing the narrative that all was fine, legal and deserving.

Why is Blair the most hated politicain in the UK?

"Interest rates in Russia raised to 12%. For Poly with ever increasing debt that is yet more pressure on the cashflow"

Here's how debt was structured for POLY as at end 2022

Net debt $2.4bn; total debt $3bn

64% in hard currency

28% in Rub

7% in CNY

1% in EUR

Average interest rate 5.08%

Debt structure by jurisdiction

Russia 74% (rose to 92% by 30 June 2023)

Kaz/Cyprus 26% (fell to 8% by 30 June)

Due to sanctions, it is easier to borrow in Rubles than in US$; POLY stated this in its 2022 report, and change in 6 months to 30 June 2023 reflects that. Assuming all new debt was in Rubles, the proportion rise in interest rates will impact costs, but will be more than offset by gains in US$ rise against Ruble.

Please note not all Russian debt is in Rubles. At end 2022, approx 840m was Ruble denominated, and this increased to 1,370m by 30 June. Again I stress this is assuming all new debt in Russia is Ruble denominated. Interest rates have risen by 4% as compared to end 2022, which would add approx $55m extra to interest costs.

It is worth noting that each Ruble gained in exchange by US$ adds $25m to the bottom line. POLY forecasted 68 Ruble to US$ at begining of year, but now stands at approx 98 Ruble.

So yes, rise in interest rates would add $55m per annum($27.5m in next 6 months) to the cost, but 30 Rubles gained by US$ would add $750m to EBITDA.

Of course we would have to apportion for the periods either rates are applicable to calculate true impact on costs and profits.

Not phased by slide in sp on AIX; entirely expected and I believe will continue a little longer until non retail investors bought in just prior to delisting on LSE offloads their holdings.

BSR...my only regret is I didn't buy enough; I'm kicking myself!

In the absence of any news from POLY, I think sp will stay suppressed at this level and may even go a bit lower. I submitted a question to Nesis at teh last conference if POLY had any idea who was purchasing the shares in dying days of listing on LSE. He replied he had no idea.

IMO these shares are currently held either by market makers or investment houses who will sell at first opportunity once their id's are registered to buy/sell on AIX. This could keep price volatile for few days/weeks.

RazB...or the most counter-productive offensive in history!

Urai5...Thanks again. I have an issue with your Russian business valuation; especially at this moment in time given US$/Ruble exch rate. If current trend holds (gold price and exch rate) for rest of 2023, Russia business alone could deliver well over $1bn EBITDA. You never know, but we may have a situation where potential buyers are approaching with a view to concluding purchase in super quick time to take advantage of the current Russian environment.

I do agree we'll probably get $1 divi from sale, but total price extracted will be much higher which will repay all POLY debt and leave ample for investment elsewhere.

Again, given the current and predicted gold price trends, I don't subscribe to the view that once Russian business is sold, POLY will be worth around $11; whole $15 less than what it was valued in 2020...doesn't make sense.

Urai5..Thank you for the analysis. IMO your valuation is too too conservative given POLY not so long ago was valued at 2000p or $26, and surely it can't be worth lot less given favourable trends in gold price which are predicted to continue given de-dollarisation and global money printing during Covid and after which will feed into inflation.

Quoted companies are almost always valued based on earning potential; no point having a company owning billions in assets but making losses. You have valued POLY based on assets.

Further, I accept POLY will not get the full price for Russian assets, but it won't be hugely less and Nesis said there won't be a fire sale. I think around $1 divi from sale of assets seems fair.

As for Kaz business, even though the turnover was about one third of the total, it accounted for 45% EBITDA in 2022 due to much lower cost base. To assume shareholders will get $1 from Russia sale and POLY Kaz will then be worth $10, making $11 altogether; compared to $26 high in 2020 is not reasonable, given future for gold had never looked better.

Low inflation in Russia combined with very favourable US$ to Ruble exchange rates means POLY will make record profits from Russia which will also determine sale price of its Russian business. More than two thirds of costs incurred by POLY is in Russia

Troajan...not going to engage with you anymore due to your very shallow understanding of global issues.

Explain to me why India's share of global GDP under British rule fell from 26% of world GDP to just 3% by the time we left in 1947?

My answer is cos Britain was only interested in looting the country which they did by any means at their disposal including mass murder. We closed academia to deny them education, built courts to hold sham trials and crush dissent and built railways as it was the only means to get the loot to the coast. The $45 trillion looted now stands at over $50 trillion and that does not take into account the legacy costs ie. India has still not recovered to the levels it was prior to Britain's colonisation.

Actually, contrary to your comment, Hindus and Muslims were getting on just fine until us British arrived, and implemented divide and rule approach which we successfully used in many other parts of the world.

Britain was force for good in places where we made it our home like the US, Canada, Australia etc; but fkd everyone else, and India more than any other country.

"can you show us,a country,other than russia"

I can show you countries that sent Iraq, Libya back to the stone age from where they will never recover. Not sure where you get the 5m figure from; please quote source.

Churchill starved 3m Indians to death by stealing/exporting food grown in India instead of keeping it for Indians. In fact, as regards India, Britain within 250 years turned the country from having first world status responsible for 26% of world GDP into a third world country by the time we left in 1947, responsible for just 3% of world GDP. And we have not admitted any guilt or paid any reparations.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2018/12/19/how-britain-stole-45-trillion-from-india

I could go on and on. No other countries have inflicted as much atrocities on the world as US and UK have.

"don't you have anywhere to go when it's closed?"

Have you asked yourself the same question. No one on this board have posted anywhere near the amount of comments you have eg. you have posted nearly 20 times what I have and I've been on here for over a year. And not to forget, you are not even invested in POLY.

"It had been all ok before Ukraine started banning a use of the Russian language and turned out to be anti-Russian in many other respects"

Valid point indeed. There had been tensions in eastern Ukraine for a while emanating largely from right wing elements inflicting atrocities on the ethnic Russians who then with the help of Russia took up arms.

The Minsk agreement if you like was Ukraine's Good Friday Agreement; signed by Ukraine, EU and Russia and got the blessing from the wider world. As it is within Ukraine, the onus was on its government to create an environment which fostered peace and stability which they failed to do. It took turn for the worst when Zelensky got elected who not only embraced the right wing elements like the Azov Batallion, but commenced process to de-Russianise anything and everything Russian, including within the predominantly Russian areas.

Compare this to what UK did in Northern Ireland. UK did not wait for the guns to fall silent, but working with the Irish government went about creating a devolved government and many other confidence building measures which resulted in the Good Friday Agreement.

With few additional factors, situation reached boiling point and we are where we are.

I think there's a chance we may get 3 divis by middle of next year. One arising from unwinding of Russian gold inventory; then another from sale of Russian assets; then a third as an annual dividend from profits earned. IMO, given very buoyant trading conditions, the three could add up to as much as 150p per share.

I really do hope this board sticks around to celebrate.

" Absolute muppets"

You're the muppet bug-blue for missing out on opportunity to double your money...sour grapes eh!

This monster will go higher and higher and to new heights in the not too distant future.

Watch this space!

Bang on BSR...there's a lot of mileage left in POLY. Given gold trends in the past year DESPITE high interest rates, there's no reason why POLY cannot eclipse previous heights reached 3 years ago.

Expect volatility for few days as the shares bought cheaply by market makers in last days before LSE suspension gets sold. They will have more than doubled their money as we predicted they would.

I expect POLY to be on an upward trajectory within a week or two.