Member Info for JohnLewis79

No particular rationale Andershow08 just the way I felt at the time. An ew bet if you like, I win on the 900 and also the 650. Hardly scientific or economically sensible and at the back of my mind wanted to stir up some reaction (very difficult) as you were the only responder.

Had this been a tuppenny hay'penny oil or gold stock there would have been plenty of comments as micro Aim stocks attract the blue sky mining punters long on hope but little else. I know I used to be one!

Your viewpoint is perfectly in tune with what most followers of MSi expect. Having made my bed here I'm hoping for a very good outcome in 2024/5 and despite the odd sulk hope 900 is very much on the cards.

In two and a bit weeks the H/Y nos will be released so we may see some 'sniffy' buying ahead of these. We have been rangebound too long and overdue a breakout.

Morning all.

Evening Andershow08. I'd agree but often excellent trading nos do not translate into a rising share price as I'm sure you have experienced, hence my sp forecast lower than current.

I do not trust the market makers who are far more interested in keeping a square book than pushing up prices.

I'm afraid this is a constant bugbear for investors and the wider mrkt if company share prices are held back for reasons unknown to investors. A typical example being the recent take over of Hotel Chocolat by Mars.

If a take over is the only way investors are going to get fair value for their stock were all in big trouble.

Wk 46 MSi trading data.

Shares remain unchanged at 750-790 on less volume and deals than last week. However buys continue to outpace sells as they have for the last 6 weeks when the shares closed at 710.

T/trd 55

T/vol 70,400

Buys 45,800

Sells 24,600

Buy% 65

Buy 1•9:1

Avtrd 1280

----------

Ytd

MSi +18%

Aim -14%

Ftse +1%

All -1%

--------

While Msi ignore the obvious attractions of sorting out their capital / divisional structure the company will be plagued by indifference from pis investors who are running the show and be mired in a mrkt place of who gives a f***?

Unwinding the divisions will be problematical as will off loading the petrol stations, forgings and corporate branding which can be junked as a non contributor. I doubt the USA will be much interested outside of the defense company assets.

Will this happen? I very much doubt it as most likely the board won't be bounced into any hasty decisions in the short term. Thus investors will have to make up their minds whether the board will act in the next year or dilly dally off putting the future of the company until someone can make a decision. This could take some time.

Nothing will happen at the H/Y stage where the potential for investor disappointment is a worry. I have pencilled in 650 by year end, well blow most optimistic forecasts as exuberant investors get ahead of themselves. My 900p end year forecast is more for the birds than anything else.

I will of course be adding should my bearish views turn out to be right as I'm holding for at least another 3 years by which time the company will be an entirely different animal and 900p in the rear view mirror.

Evening all.

Qinetiq boss Steve Wadey has hailed the success of the UK defense sector as his firm became the latest to report surging orders amid growing geopolitical tensions.

"We are doing really really well" he said. His firm reported a surge in orders to £953m for the first half to end September. Despite the order boost shares fell 8•5% after the results.

In other news pleas by the CEO of the LSE and others to the Chancellor re the dire state of the stock market due in part to the absurdity of UK small cap valuations will most likely fall on deaf ears or be postponed for Starmer to look at.

Mars valued Hotel Chocolat at two and a half times its closing price pre the deal. No wonder firms seek exposure to overseas mrkts where company valuations are at a more sensible levels. Around £1•9tn has been pulled from the UK mrkt since 2000 undermining London's reputation as a global financial hub. Whether Hunt is minded to heed representations is unknown.

Cisco and Wallmart backbones to their respective industries sent stocks on the street down after the Dow briefly climbed above the 35,000 level. It's been a good wk on the S&P500 up 2% this week and 17% ahead on the year.

Earlier in the day the ftse 100 dropped 76 following a host of dividend payments. A profit warning from Burberrys and more pain from Royal Mail kept the 100 in negative territory for the year (- •55%).

Following underwhelming forecasts Cisco ($48) dropped 11% on news that earnings and revenue demand are slowing and Wallmart fell $13 to $156 as consumers left their cheque books at home as store prices show no signs of easing. Palo Alto Networks ($241) dropped 6% as Q2 missed billing targets pulling back Target and Home Depot stocks after yesterday's gains.

On the economy US t/bills moved down after the Labour Dept reported wkly jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 which was unexpected. However investors expect no rate raises this side of Q1 '24 according to CMEs Watch Tool.

On the NYSE

Trade 2936

Gains 1086

Loss 1761

U/nc 89

T/vol 3•97bn

Nsd vol 4•54bn

DJ -46 (34,945)

SP +5 (4508)

NS +16 (15,833)

R2 -18 (1159)

WTI $73

10ytb 4•446%

MSCI(W) -2 (2973)

Gold Bugs +4 (220)

Latest :- Vix 14. Brent $77.

Gold $1984. Copper $3•703.

Palm $970. Silver $23•880.

$1•241. €1•144.

FF +17. DF +38.

Morning all.

Talks between Biden and Xi Jinping which lasted around 4 hours seemed to have been pretty positive. Xi Jinping who doesn't speak English lived in Iowa in 1985 for a brief period. Discussions centered around resuming military to military comms, Ai and work to curb Fentanyl production the bigest killer of people in America. A further round of talks between officials is to take place today.

Hopes the Fed is managing a soft landing quite well boosted sentiment and the main indexes which had surged on Tuesday. The small cap R2000 which has lagged the other indices cont to climb as stalling rates provide relief to hard pressed micro and small cap companies. Also providing relief was news that the House of Representatives passed a temporary spending bill to avert a Govt shutdown pleased investors.

Shares in Target ($130) surged 18% after the big box retailer forecast a 4Q profit above estimates. Targets bright outlook lifted other retailers, Macys ($13) put on 8% and Kohls ($25) jumped 9%. A little known stock called Sirius XM ($5) rocketed up 17% in pre market trading on news Berkshire Hathaway had taken a 9•7m stake worth $44m in the satellite operator.

On the DJI Top 30 Disney ($90) topped the leaderboard with Merck ($101) propping up the losers. Of the NYSE 2950 issues 1587 advanced 1275 declined with 88 unchanged on 4•35bn shares traded.

DJ +163 (34,991)

SP +7 (4503)

NS +5 (15,818)

R2 +2 (1177)

WTI $76

10ytb 4•505%

MSCI(W) +12 (2975)

Gold Bugs -2 (217)

Latest :- Vix 14. Brent $81.

Gold $1966. Copper $3•695.

Palm $975. Silver $23•455.

$1•239. €1•144.

FF +4. DF +7.

Morning all.

bae systems has clocked up £10bn in orders since end of june as growing global tensions stoke demand for military hardware. the order intake this year exceeds £30bn and has added more than 5000 employees to the payroll.

since the invasion of ukraine the defence sector has benefitted from strong demand amid worries over russian aggression, fears about china's intentions towards taiwan and the me war.

bae is on course to grow annual sales by £1•6bn and add c.£200m in profits to last years £2•5bn haul. recent new contracts inc £3•9bn of funding for the aukus sub programme and ship building in glasgow where its making eight cutting edge frigates for the royal navy. shares closed off 35 at 1073xd with several broker recommends on buy for long-term growth.

others to catch the eye included saab, dassault aviation and rheinmetal. bab**** rose on news it would pay out its first dividend in 4 years and a polish navy building contract helped the shares 16 better to 425p. msi remain steady at 760-800 on small volume.

Stocks rallied on the Street to one of their best days of the year as more than 90% of the 500 climbed in a widespread rally posting their bigest daily % gains since late April. The small cap R2000 outpaced the broader mrkt gaining 5•4% and into plus territory (1•5%) for the year but still well below the 1321 all-time high.

Investors have become ever more convinced the Fed is done raising rates as data showed US consumer prices were unchanged in Oct and the annual underlying inflation was the smallest in 2 years. In the 12 months thru October the CPI climbed 3•2% below investor estimates of 3•7%.

Among individual stocks Snap Inc jumped 7•5% on a deal with Amazon and Home Depot put on 5% on earnings beats. FAANGs had a good day Meta up $7 to $329 led the way up and on the Top 30 big board Wallgreens, Dow Inc and Intel led the risers. Only 5 stocks declined Travellers ($168) and United Health ($540) propping up the losers board.

Goldies ($1971) had a good day, Dec futures up $16 on USD weakness and oils saw inventories rise to 1•335m barrels as the oil price slipped to $82•47 well off the 52 wk high of $96. On the NYSE 2955 issues were traded, 2667 rose, 254 declined with 34 unchanged on total volume of 4•7bn.

DJ +490 (34,828)

SP +84 (4496)

NS +330 (15,812)

R2 +60 (1175)

WTI $78

10ytb 4•433%

MSCI(W) +59 (2963)

Gold Bugs +11 (218)

Latest :- Vix 14. Brent $83.

Gold $1973. Copper $3•685.

Palm $965. Silver $23•310.

$1•249. €1•148.

FF +17. DF +88.

Morning all.

The Dow put on 55 as the major indexes cont the Nov rebound (1285 points) fuelled by strong earnings nos and the belief rates have peaked at least into Q1 2024. All eyes will be on the CPI gauge of inflation out later today.

Among the 11 S&P sectors energy was the main gainer ending c.1% ahead while utilities topped the loser board off 1•2%. Helping the Dow Boeing ($206) rallied 4% after Bloomberg News reported that China is considering resuming purchases of the MAX 737 aircraft, perfectly timed for XI Jinping meeting with Biden.

On further good news for Boeing Dubai Emirates ordered a mix of 777-9s and 777-8s jets (95 in total), for an order value of $55bn. Of the DJ top 30 Boeing has been one of the poorest performers this year adding just 6%.

On the NYSE total traded 2960

(+ 1403) (- 1456) (u/c 101) on 3•33bn daily volume.

DJ +54 (34,338)

SP -4 (4412)

NS -46 (15,483)

R2 -1 (1114)

WTI $79

10ytb 4•632%

MSCI(W) +4 (2905)

Gold Bugs -2 (208)

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $83.

Gold $1945. Copper $3•660.

Palm $917. Silver $22•405.

$1•227. €1•147.

FF -14. DF -6.

Morning all.

Asian mrkts have opened cautiously amid rate concerns and higher borrowing costs. Moodys the US ratings agency has downgraded the outlook for the US Govt from stable to negative as the Govt teeters on the brink of another shutdown next week as the debt burden ($33tn) continues to grow.

Traders remain guarded ahead of US inflation data, consumer and producer prices out this week. Investors hope for some positive news after Biden and Xi Jinping meet later in the week.

There are no major moves on the big 3 Asian exchanges most posting modest losses. Malaysia, Singapore and Bali are closed for Deepvali holidays and Banks in India will be closed for a week.

Latest :- Vix 14. WTI $76. Brent $81. Gold $1940. Copper $3•599. Palm $915. Silver $22•150. 10ytb 4•662%.

$1•222. €1•144.

FF +22. DF -80.

Morning all.

DJ +391 (34,283)

SP +68 (4415)

NS +341 (15,529)

R2 +11 (1115)

WTI $77

10ytb 4•645%

MSCI(W) +22 (2901)

Gold Bugs -2 (210)

Close :- Vix 14. Brent $82.

Gold $1940. Copper $3•596.

Palm $915. Silver $22•305.

$1•223. €1•144.

Yen 152. Yuan 7•29.

FF +27. DF -52.

NYSE

Trades 2941

+ 2095

- 755

U/c 91

T/vol 3,666m

Morning all.

Quite a drop on trade deals compared to last week (89 v 183) though volumes were similar at 96k v 102k. Shares unmoved at 760-800.

On the face of it their seems to be resistance at 800, i'm not sure why my simple explanation is 'roundophobia' no doubt I'm being naive. Any chartists out there?

Trades 89

T/vols 96,000

Buys 56,000

Sells 40,000

Buys 58%

Av trd 1078

MSi +17%

Aim -16%

Ftse -1%

All -2%

Agreed. A fair bit of speculation on this issue which has yet to be reflected in the share price.

Simply Wall St reckon MSi is overvalued but since one has to pay for their info I swerved. Yea I've never found any broker coverage despite the companies long history in the stock market. No bad thing as far as I'm concerned as Co brokers often look over their shoulders at the CEO before penning forecasts and as Jesse Livermore once said "I never pay attention to the actions of insiders, the directors and management. Insiders are commonly the worst judges or their own stock"

US stocks fell to profit takers after the recent upwards move by equities. Better than expected monthly jobs data where new claims edged lower to 217,000 last week pleased investors.

Fed Chair Powell spoke at a IMF conference in Washington D.C and said while he was pleased at the slowing pace of inflation he was unsure they had done enough to reach their 2% goal. Immediately after his speech the Dow dropped 200 and t/bill yields lurched higher in large part after a poorly rec'd 30 year bond auction.

Equities saw action among big caps, major movers included Nvidia ($468) which fell after hours on news of expanding its product range of chips to China. Tesla ($208) dropped 6% after HSBC initiated coverage with a 'reduced' rating and Disney ($90) gained $6 on 4Q earnings beats.

Arm Holdings once domiciled in Cambridge UK dropped 6% to $52 after a downbeat 3Q sales forecast. It's been an inauspicious start for the stock off 20% since its IPO which hit a $64 high on initial investor enthusiasm.

Yesterday 5/11 S&P sectors rose and on the NYSE a total of 2938 Issues were traded, 754 advanced, 2126 declined with 58 unmoved on volume of 3•91bn.

DJ -220 (33,892)

SP -35 (4347)

NS -125 (15,188)

R2 -15 (1103)

WTI $76

10ytb 4•616%

MSCI(W) -9 (2879)

Gold Bugs -1 (211)

Latest :- Vix 15. Brent $80.

Gold $1959. Copper $3•633.

Palm $940. Silver $22•755.

$1•223. €1•146.

FF -44. DF + 65.

Morning all.

Auction of gold to go ahead? Wtf is going on? Can the State of Jaipur sell the gold while the GOI are in dispute over the assets?

Progression of sorts but ever so slowly as MB indicated. Not the can down the road variety as the Indian Govt are now aware of the determination of Panthera to see this through come what may.

DJ -40 (34,112)

SP +4 (4383)

NS +17 (15,313)

R2 -10 (1118)

WTI $75

10ytb 4•492%

MSC1(W) +1 (2888)

Gold Bugs -6 (213)

Latest :- Vix 14. Brent $80.

Gold $1949. Copper $3•625

Palm $920. Silver $22•465.

$1•228. €1•147.

FF -19. DF +37.

Wall's main indexes were flat with little to excite investors. The 10ytb has fallen well below 5% now at 4•492% hoping the Fed has reached the end of its rate-hike campaign. Mrkts now price in a 50% chance of a rate cut of 25bp as soon as May. This has helped the 500 and Nsdq to notch up their longest win streak in 2 years.

On equities Warner Bros Discovery ($9•40) slumped 16% after the company said Hollywood strikes and a weak advertising mrkt have hurt earnings. Hamstrung by $45bn of debt its no wonder investors are fleeing the stock. Paramount Global ($11•82) fell in sympathy after being downgraded by veteran analyst Jessica Ehrlich.

Among other movers Take-Two Interactive Software announced the next instalment of Grand Theft Auto franchise is on the horizon, stock rose 7% to $142 . Up 44% this year.

Electric car maker Lucid ($3•85) fell 8% to an all time low after cutting production forecasts. The stock is down 93% since its IPO. Elon Musk predicted either Rivian or Lucid would go broke. The moneys on Lucid.

On the NYSE 2955 were traded, 1200 advanced and 1649 declined with 106 u/c. Total volume 3•73bn with 38 new highs and 66 new lows.

Morning all.

Trading update out reads well on first brief look.